01-TOC约束理论(瓶颈管理目标.)八讲作业.doc
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1、GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM 高瑞高瑞特卫星节目特卫星节目 SESSION ONE 第一讲第一讲 OPERATIONS 作业作业 Hi! System Approach. 嗨! 系统方式。 There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach, holistic approach. 广泛的共识是,如果我们想要改善公司的绩效,我们必须采用系统方式 。 We all agree about t
2、hat the only question is how do you do it. 我们都同意,唯一的问题在于你如何去做。 Well, lets try. 让我们来试试。 First thing is, its obvious that we cannot look on just one function in isolation or on just issue in isolation. 首先,很显然的,我们不能将每一个功能或问题个别分开来看。 So for example, if you want to take a system approach to an organizatio
3、n you have to start with a broad base. 举例来说,如果你要以系统方式来解决一个组织问题,你必须从全面的角度来看。 Like for example, to take into consideration logistics and the markets and financial concerns and do not forget that any organization is composed out of people you must take into account people relationships as well. 譬如说,当考虑
4、运筹、市场与财务问题时,别忘了每一个公司都是由人所组成,你也必须将 人际关系考虑进去。So far so good. 到目前为止一切还好。 But then what do you do? 但是,接下来你怎么做呢? In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. 为了要示范,我来举一个例子。Now, as always when you are taking examples there is a fear of taking a too small example and then the conclusions are too
5、broad example and then its like you havent taken an example at all. 通常当我们举例时,总担心所举的例子太小而结论却不具体,或例子太广泛,结果就好像没 有一样。So what I will do, I will take as an example the entire steel industry in the world. 因此我要以全世界的钢铁业为例。 System approach. 系统方式。What did we say? 我们说了什么呢?Well take for example one aspect of log
6、istic - what will it be in the steel industry? 我们将举一个运筹方面的例子 它在钢铁业会是什么样子呢?Something really bothering people about the existing logistics. 对运筹而言,有些事真让人心烦。 It will be something like finished goods inventories are much too high in that industry. 例如,“在钢铁业里,成品库存太高了”之类的事。Well, let me tell you a little bit
7、 about it so you understand that when steel industry is talking about problems of too much finished goods inventory, its even worse than what happens in your industry. 嗯,让我来告诉你,钢铁业成品库存太高的问题,比你所在之产业还要严重的多。 As you see, a mid-range steel mill has about quarter of a million tons of finished steel on the
8、ir yard. 如你所知,一个中级规模的钢铁厂在它们的仓库里约有二十五万吨成品。 This is huge. 这是个很大的数量。Why does it bother them so much? 这为什么造成他们这么多的困扰呢? Just let me remind you that steel, not like wine, is not improving with time. 让我提醒你们,钢并不像酒一样会越陈越香。 As a matter of fact when you are talking to them they confess that they do not know wh
9、at they produce more steel or rust. 事实上当你和他们谈起时,他们承认,他们不知道生产比较多的是钢还是铁锈。 This is the magnitude of the problem - its huge. 这是个大问题。 Then we said, we shouldnt take just logistic problem and deal with it in isolation, we have to look on other issues at the same time in order to have the system approach.
10、所以,我们不应只考虑到运筹而且把它单独分开来处理,我们必须同时看待其它的问题以便 采取系统方式。 What was the other thing? 其它的问题是什么呢? The market, now what you look on the market, something bad. 是市场,现在你所看的市场,情况很糟。 Well, in the steel industry its very easy to see what is bad, because thats what you are getting through the phones all time and this i
11、s customer complaints. 嗯,在钢铁业你很容易发现什么是糟糕的,就是你常在电话中所接到的顾客抱怨。 Not like in other industries there is something little bit special about the steel industry, which is - over 95% of the complaints is about one single issue, and there are furious complaints. 不像别的工业,钢铁业有一点不同, 超过 95的抱怨是同一个问题,而且这些抱怨是激烈的。And t
12、he issue is you promised to deliver and you didnt deliver on time. 问题就是“你答应要交货,却没有准时交货”。First of all you can ask yourself what do you mean promised to deliver if they have so much finished goods inventories. 首先你可能会问你自己,既然成品库存有这么多,你说“答应要交货”到底是什么意思。 How come that they didnt deliver it immediately. 为什么
13、他们没有立刻把货运送出去呢? Well, as it happens, when you come to order something from the steel mill, yes the do have a quarter of million tons of steel on their fields, but not what you are asking for. 嗯,情形是这样的,当你向钢铁工厂订购一些东西时,他们的确有近二十五万吨的钢铁在他 们的仓库里,但不是你要的那种。So if you will go to a Korean steel mill they will te
14、ll you, for example if you are asking for steel plates, they will tell you 6 weeks. 比方说,如果你跑到一家韩国钢铁工厂要买钢板,他们会告诉你要六个星期。 If you go to European steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到欧洲钢铁工厂,他们也会告诉你要六个星期。 If you go to the US steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到美国钢铁厂,他们还是会告诉你要六个星期。 Its like
15、number that came to Moses on mount Sinai. 这就好像摩西在西奈山所得到的数目。 So now you do not have a choice, you have to wait 6 weeks, fine. 因此你没有选择,你必须等六个星期,好吧! And then it turns out that their due date performance is 60%. In other words, in 60% of the cases they will deliver before or at 6 weeks. 结果他们交期绩效是 60。换句话
16、说,60的情况,他们会在六个星期内或更早交货。 In the remaining 40% they will deliver eventually. 剩下 40,他们迟早会交货。 And eventually can be as long as 15 weeks. 最后可能拖到 15 个星期。 Now why is it such a problem there? 那么,为什么会有这样的问题呢? Its due to the nature of the clients of the steel mills. 这要追究于钢铁工厂客户的性质。 Suppose that you are a clie
17、nt of the steel mill, a big client. 假设你是这家钢铁工厂的客户,大客户。 Suppose that you are doing steel bridges. 而你是造钢铁桥的。 In order to do one steel bridge you are using lets say something like over 200 different types of plates. 为了造一座钢铁桥你得用到两百种不同的钢板。 Now what are the facts? 事实上呢? The chance of getting one type of p
18、late on time is about 60%, 0.6. 准时得到一种钢板的机率是大约 60,0.6。 If that is the case, what is the chance of getting two plates of steel at the same time? 如果是这样,那么同时准时得到两种钢板的机率有多大呢? 0.6 time 0.6 in other words about 36%. 0.6 乘以 0.6,换句话说,大概是 36。 What is the chance of getting 4 plates on time? 同时准时得到四种钢板的机率有多大呢?
19、 Its 0.36 time 0.36 - oh, oh - its 10% now. 它是 0.36 乘以 0.36,嗯 这次大概是 10。 Whats the chance of getting 8 plates on time? 1%. 准时得到八种钢板的机率有多大呢?1。 Whats the chance of getting 200 plates on time? 准时得到两百种钢板的机率有多大呢? Less than the chance of winning the lottery. 比赢得乐透彩券还小。 But if one plate is missing you canno
20、t deliver the bridge to your client. 但如果缺了一片钢板,你就无法将桥完成交给你的客户了。 You can imagine what furious complaints we are talking about, unbelievable. 你可以想象我们所说的愤怒抱怨了,难以相信。 Fine. 很好。 So we are looking on the market. 所以我们看了市场问题。 We are looking on logistics. 我们看了运筹。What else finance. 还有什么别的财务。 What is the bigges
21、t problem in the steel mill? 钢铁工厂最大的问题是什么呢? The biggest problem is very long payback periods of investments. 最大的问题是投资的回收期非常长。 What am I talking about? 我所指的是什么呢? You know that when you want to buy a new piece of equipment and you belong to a corporate, you have to fill out an appropriation request fo
22、r this piece of equipment where you have to justify why you want to buy it. 你知道当你在一家大公司要买一台新设备,你要填写申请表,来评估为什么要买它。 And the justification is financial. 这个评估就是财务。 And basically you have to justify that due to this new piece equipment within some period of time you will cover the whole investment. 基本上你必
23、须评估这一新设备,在多长时间内就可以回收所有的投资。 Now in most industries, world wide there is a magic number today which is 2 years. 在大多数工业,举世皆然地存在一个神奇数字,那就是两年。 Which means if your appropriation request shows that it will take to return the investment in 2 and a half years most probably the corporate will send it back to
24、you and not approve it. 这意谓着,如果你的申请显示你将在两年半内回收,很有可能公司会把它退回给你而不批准。So then you will have to take it back to fudge the numbers, to show that its below two years, submit it again. 因此你必须回去捏造数据,凑出它是小于两年,然后再呈核一次。 We all know these number games. 我们对这些数字游戏都很清楚。 Well, in the steel mills they approve even when
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