TheStrategicVisi_省略_conomicDiplomacy_Son.docx

December 2015 Serial No. 117 The Strategic Vision of the "Belt and Road" and a New Development of China's Economic Diplomacy By Dr. Song Guoyou Professor of American Studies, Shanghai Fudan University Abstract: The "Belt and Road" strategy is the most ambitious comprehensive regional economic cooperation strategy put forward up to date by the Chinese Government. In the process of planning, promoting and implementing this conception, the concept, practice and strategy of China's economic diplomacy witnesses a new development. This article makes some observations on the "Belt and Road" conception mainly from the perspective of economic diplomacy, with focus on the new thinking, new mechanisms, new models and new policies of China's economic diplomacy in the process of pushing forward the "Belt and Road" concept, and tries to understand its important challenges. These challenges contain new requirements on Chinas economic and diplomatic ability， and need to be carefully addressed in the process of promoting the "Belt and Road" strategic concept. DOI: 10.16646/j .cnki. 11-1509/d.2015.04.004 The "Belt and Road " strategic vision is Chinas most important regional cooperation initiative, and also the economic and diplomatic strategy with the biggest integrated investment of various resources. This idea is a priority in Chinas diplomacy, has a great strategic significance for promoting China's diplomacy, is also systems engineering to test whether China could comprehensively use both domestic and international resources and attain both the domestic and international objectives in the new period, and has a very important diplomatic impact. In the process of planning, promoting and implementing this conception, Chinas diplomacy particularly the concept, practice and strategy of Chinas economic diplomacy witnesses a new development. In combination with the "Belt and Road" initiative and economic diplomacy, this article focuses on the new thinking, new mechanisms, new models and new policies of Chinas economic diplomacy demonstrated in the process of pushing forward the "Belt and Road conception, and tries to understand its outstanding challenges. I. New Thinking: Economic-Diplomatic Mutual Inclusiveness Economic diplomacy is the combination of economy and diplomacy, which is the most common definition of economic diplomacy. The key to this definition is how to understand the relationship between economy and diplomacy. There are two traditional views on this. The first is the economic activity to achieve the diplomatic goal conducted by state, with economy serving diplomatic purposes. Economy is a means while diplomacy is the purpose. The second is the diplomatic activities to achieve economic goals by state, with diplomacy serving economy.1 Diplomacy is the means while the economy is the goal. A dispute between means and goals reflects the essence of whichever is more important, economic goal or diplomatic goal. This is not only a concept difference, but also policy difference. The "Belt and Road" cooperation initiative contains both diplomatic goal and economic goal. From the perspective of political objective, One is to build China stable relations with neighboring countries. In accordance with the existential planning, except for the Northeast -15- December 2015 Serial No. 117 Asian countries, the "Belt and Road M basically cover all Chinas neighbors on land and sea. The academic consensus is that economic cooperation, even in short term, can help promote regional peace and restrict conflict between China and its surrounding areas.2 Two is to promote cooperation with the United States in Asia-Pacific. The United States proposed in 2010 the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, with TPP as the main economic grab.3 Under the circumstances that regional comprehensive economic partnership”（ RCEP) has not made significant progress and China is excluded from the TPP, China has launched the "Belt and Road" initiative in order to search for a bigger space for Sino-U.S. cooperation in Asia-Pacific. Three is from the geopolitical perspective, to promote the gradual integration of the Eurasian Continental systems. East Asia and North America are located at both ends of the Eurasian continents, and have a very important strategic position in the global economy and world politics. However, the link between Europe and East Asia is not close. The construction of the "Belt and Road” is conducive to a more organic connection and getting through between East Asia and Europe, and to further enhance the Eurasian geopolitical status.4 Four is to promote political relations with emerging economies in the peripheral areas. In Chinas peripheral areas, the "Belt and Road involves global and regional emerging economies such as Russia, Indonesia, India, and Kazakhstan, can generally help upgrade bilateral relations between China and these emerging economies, and inject vitality into the various strategic partnerships with them. Five is the construction of the "Belt and Road" can better maintain and take into overall consideration Chinas land and sea sovereignty, ensure their parallel development and bring to full play geo-advantages of China, a country with both land and sea. Along with the Chinese economy into the New Normal, the construction of the "Belt and Road" also has rich economic goals. One is out-bound transfer of the advantageous overcapacity to help other countries9 economic development. Cement, steel products, traditional textile manufacturing industries are both Chinas advantageous industries and also the industrial development close to the upper limit. Especially with constraints of energy-saving and emissions reduction, these industries need to re-layout. Because of different development phases, majority countries along the "Belt and Road" need more these capacities than China. Two is the Eastern-Middle- Western regions coordinated development, creating a new open pattern. Chinas reform and opening up, from geographical sense, proceed from "East to Middle to West" gradient. If this pattern is still maintained, regional differences will continue to exist. Construction of the "Belt and Road" can help break the regional differences, and the Mid-Western regions to become open frontier on the new open path. Even in line with the original development gradient, the "Belt and Road" can promote economic factors better optimize their concentration in the Eastern, Middle and Western regions. Three is a free trade zone strategic push accelerates the process of regional economic integration. Accelerating conclusion of free trade agreements by major economies are becoming a new trend in the global economic development. In overall view, China's free trade agreements unmatched with its own economic strength and China's foreign trade openness, but are also relatively lagged behind compared with other major economies.5 Construction of the "Belt and Road" is not only conducive to accelerating the existing FTA negotiations, but also to help brew, hatch, and spawn new bilateral or multilateral FTAs. Regional economic integration will be deepened correspondingly as China and -16- December 2015 Serial No. 117 countries along the "Belt and Road" conclude more FTAs.6 Four is to help China make better use of foreign resources and energy. Chinas economic development needs to consume more resources and energy. Along with progressing interconnection, one of the core contents of the “Belt and Road”， Chinas needed energy and resources will be more easily transported home. These political and economic goals are largely strategic and overall, with strong policies and practical significance. Viewing from policy practice and expected goals, the "Belt and Road'* has distinct economic and diplomatic properties, however, under the framework of which the economic diplomacy has the integration between economic goals with diplomatic goals, rather than the contradiction, not to mention conflict between the two. In other words, the "Belt and Road" is not the economic diplomacy to achieve either economic goals or political goals, but transcends a narrow view that economy services diplomacy or diplomacy serves economy, and tries to achieve both economic and diplomatic goals, and helps achieve national overall objectives, including economic, political and security objectives. Under the circumstances of goals inclusiveness, there is no need to deliberately highlight the confrontation between the two. Since economic and trade cooperation depends on improvement of diplomatic relations between two countries, so the improved diplomatic relations can help promote economic and trade cooperation. Fundamentally speaking, the economic and diplomatic new thinking shown by the "Belt and Road reflects two important trends in China's diplomacy in the new era. First, multiple interests coexist in evolution of the strategic tasks. From the founding of new China up to the reform and opening up, to safeguard the national security or sovereign interests is the national priority strategic task, so the economy mainly serves diplomacy. After the reform and opening up, economic development has become the primary goal of the national strategy, so diplomacy serves economy. Today, the national primary strategic goals are to achieve greater rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the inclusiveness between economic interests and diplomatic interests and the corresponding complexity have obviously changed compared with that in the past. Hence, it is difficult to define and distinguish between the two. Second， the active expansion of strength in the background of national development. In the past, Chinas economic diplomacy reflected the strength of China and the real relationship between China and the world economic system. Supported by the strength of China's peaceful rise, the "Belt and Road" initiative integrates the economic goals with diplomatic goals, and will vigorously shape economic goals and diplomatic goals. II. ANew Mechanism: Mechanism Innovation Coordinated By Central and Local Government The construction of the "Belt and Road" naturally involves two major categories of governmental departments: One category is the economic competent authorities including the Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The other is the competent authority for foreign affairs, which is represented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.7 The "Belt and Road mechanism innovation is not only reflected at the ministry level, but also in the central-local relations. From the perspective of the central-local interaction, the "Belt and Road" initiative produces some new breakthroughs regarding a few important issues involving the central-local relationship. Firstf the "Belt and Road" is the most -17- December 2015 Serial No. 117 successful foreign economic cooperation for the Central Government to attract local participation. The "Belt and Road is a strategic initiative proposed by the Central Government, which is inseparable from the local government support. Compared with other economic diplomatic initiative, this initiative shows three distinct characteristics. Firstlyf the scale of local participation. More than 20 provinces are directly related to the "Belt and Road building, which is unprecedented. Secondly， the scope of local participation. Such initiatives in the past are typically local and regional, involving a few provinces in a region. But this initiative achieves two full coverage: geographically full coverage of Chinas South, East, North and West; and economically the full coverage of its developed regions and underdeveloped regions. Thirdly， enthusiasm of local participation. Since this initiative is proposed, various local governments have given it high attention, and actively carry out docking with it in combination with their respective economic and regional characteristics.8 Second, the systematic integration and docking between the central foreign economic initiative and the local and regional economic development planning. From the perspective of state, the "Belt and Road" is an economic cooperation initiative between China and countries along the two routes. But from the domestic perspective, this initiative in fact connects the different economic geographic areas, fully echoes the internal needs of foreign economic cooperation initiative, and enhance the provinces opening up to inside and outside. Among Chinas economic geographical regions, be it Chinas Northeast, North, East, South, Southwest or Northwest, have their own position in the "Belt and Road" planning,9 according to the regional economic development characteristics and existing regional cooperation characteristics design. Chinas Northeast region is Russia- and Mongolia-oriented, Northwest is Central Asia-oriented, Southwest and South are ASEAN-oriented while North and East also go out of the country through planning of transportation and industrial parks. Therefore, in addition to opening to the outside world still wider, the "Belt and Road" also promotes the economic integration within different geographical regions and between different regions, and helps overcome the over-outbound contacts and inadequate domestic contacts of some provinces. Besides, actually the "Belt and Road" planning and the important regional economic development planning are also complementary to each other. For example, the ”Belt and Road and the Yangtze River Economic Belt Planning and coordinated development planning of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have a high degree of convergence. Third, an important try for the Central Government to achieve macro diplomatic interests and local government to better play a diplomatic functional role. There is no such initiative like the "Belt and Road" carrying the country's major diplomatic interests.10 The "Belt and Road" initiative cuts across four continents, involving important aspects of the relationship between big powers, peripheral diplomacy and developing countries.11 Planning this magnificent economic cooperation initiative requires the Central Government to bring to full play the macro-strategic advantages, and fully estimate the international and regional economic situation, geopolitical situation, internal situation of countries concerned and the development trend of China and other major issues. The local participation enthusiasm is more from the perspective of local economic development and opening up wider to the outside world. Therefore, the Central Government should encourage the local government to acquire a certain diplomatic -18- December 2015 Serial No. 117 awareness and assume a certain diplomatic (Foreign Affairs) responsibility while achieving the local economic growth. Especially for some important border provinces, dual realization of diplomatic interests and economic growth is an important pa