巴基斯坦经济展望.pptx

PRESENTATION ONThe Present Economic Outlook for PakistanByMinistry of FinanceGovernment of PakistanApril, 20061Outline of PresentationuKey Macroeconomic Challenges of the 1990suHow did we address those challengesuWhere Are We Now?uWhere do we want to see Pakistan in the next five yearsuKey Macroeconomic targets for the next five yearsuNew ChallengesuHow to address new challengesuConcluding remarks2Overcoming macroeconomic challenges 1990s Macroeconomic ScenarioMacroeconomic imbalances leading to buildup of public debt, deceleration of growth and investment, and stagnation in exportsChallenges of the 90sImprove macroeconomic environmentBring debt situation under controlRestore investor confidenceRevive economic growthRestore financial sovereignty2000-onwards: Two-pronged Strategy followedPolicies pursued to strengthen macroeconomic environmentIntroducing wide-ranging structural reforms3Policies pursued to strengthen macroeconomic environmentReducing “Twin Deficits”Keeping inflation lowBuilding foreign exchange reservesMaintaining stability in exchange rateMaintaining consistency and continuity in policies4Strong commitment to reform agendaMajor economic reforms5nImproved external balance of payments nIncreased foreign exchange reservesnExports growing at double-digit ratesPakistans economy has made significant progress during the last six years nTransparent and predictable economic policiesnReform policies institutionalized, ensuring continuitynConfidence of the private sector restored nInflows of remittances surgednFiscal and current account deficits lowerednDeclining domestic and external debt burdenWhere Are We Now ?7Robust Economic GrowthReal GDP growth (% yoy change)Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics6.57.08Per Capita Income ($)Per Capita Income Continues to RiseSource: Federal Bureau of Statistics9New Jobs CreatedLabour Force SurveyEmployment (in millions)Number of New Employment (in millions)FY 0036.82-FY 0239.052.23FY 0442.012.96FY 06 (Q1)47.555.54Source: Labour Force Survey, FBS 10Reduction in PovertyArea2000-012004-05Changes (% Points)Overall32.125.4-6.7Rural39.031.8-7.2Urban22.717.2-5.5Source: Center for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution (CRPRID)11Foreign investmentForeign Investment (US$ million) including Privatization ProceedsSource: SBP12Net Credit Flows to the Private Sector13BanksFuel & EnergyNon Energy Non BanksRising Profitability Driving GrowthRising Profitability Driving GrowthSource: KSE14Currency stabilization and buoyant stock market reflects optimism in the Pakistan economySource: BloombergExchange rate (PKR/USD)Pakistans Karachi Stock Exchange Index - 10015Improving budgetary positionOverall fiscal deficit (% of GDP)Source: Ministry of Finance 16Growing Revenue Collection helps boost up the economyIncrease Revenue Collection (Rs. Billion)Source: Ministry of Finance & CBR CBR Revenue17Overall interest payment ratios have improvedInterest Payments (As % of Total Revenue)Source: Ministry of Finance18Low inflation has provided monetary flexibilitySource: FBSInflation (%) (Base year 2001 = 100)19Month-wise Trend in InflationSupply Side ActionsProjected20Regional Price Comparison of Essential CommoditiesSource: FBS & Ministry of CommerceCOMPARISON OF PRICES OF ESSENTIAL HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ITEMS WITH REGIONAL COUNTRIES in Pak RupeesS#ItemsUnitIslamabadNew DelhiKabulTehran28/03/0627/03/0619/03/0622/03/061WheatKG11.8819.1818.15-2Wheat FlourKG13.2419.1824.20-3Rice BasmatiKG22.6327.4042.3582.164Moong PulseKG49.6765.7660.5039.435Mash PulseKG56.0271.2460.50-6Masoor PulseKG43.9643.9260.5059.157Gram PulseKG31.7941.1060.5052.588OnionKG11.0710.9618.1529.589TomatoesKG14.9916.4436.5029.5810GarlicKG58.0261.3772.0052.5811Chicken FarmKG55.6568.50121.0092.0112MuttonKG196.56191.80266.20427.2013SugarKG36.0331.5131.4639.4316/03/0610/3/200619/03/0622/03/0614Diesel Litre37.2542.5434.001.0515Petrol (Super/Octane 90)Litre56.3661.3836.305.2616Kerosene OilLitre37.5049.3239.001.0821Money Supply, Inflation & GrowthMoney Supply, Inflation & GrowthM2Nominal GDPInflationReal GDP22Low interest rates encouraged private investment and fuelled growthWeighted Average Lending Rate (% per annum)Source: SBP23Exceptionally strong external liquiditySource: SBPImports and Exports (US$ million)24As confidence in the economy builds, remittances from abroad have risen sharplySource: SBPRemittances (US$ million)25Current account (% of GDP)Current account deficit remains under controlSource: SBP26Financial Flows (Million $)2005-062004-05uPrivatization Proceeds1645 363uGrants 637 231uCapital Markets1500 600uProject & Program Aid2893 2044uForeign Investment1850 1676Total 8525 4914uCurrent Account Deficit -5353-1753uAmortization-1042-1434uOther Payments - 416-1500Total-6811-4687Addition to Reserves 1714 227 Source: Ministry of Finance 27.aided by a phenomenal buildup in FX reservesSource: SBPForeign exchange reserves (US$ billion)Debt Profile of Pakistan29PUBLIC DEBT (As % of GDP)Source: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance 30EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES (% of Foreign Exchange Earnings)Significantly reducing vulnerability to external shocksSource: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance 31INDICATORS OF DEBT BURDENSource: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance 32INDICATORS OF DEBT BURDENSource: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance Pakistans EconomyIn the Next Five Years34Pakistans Economy in the Next Five YearsuStrong Economic Growth Ranging between 6 8% p.a.uStable Macroeconomic EnvironmentuDebt Burden Reaching Sustainable LeveluLives of the Common Man ImprovinguSocial Indicators ImprovingKey Macroeconomic TargetsFor The Next Five Years36Key Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSustainable Budget Deficit Ensuing Macroeconomic StabilitySource: Ministry of Finance 37Public Debt Attaining SustainabilityKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance 38Country No Longer Vulnerable to External Shocks: External Debt As % of GDPKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance 39Investment as % of GDP RisingKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance 40Pakistan on a higher Growth TrajectoryKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance New Challenges42Second generation reformsSecond generation reformsImproving competitiveness of industryFacilitate expansion and increased role of private sectorFurther strengthening of tax administrationPromoting transparency in economic policy makingJudicial reform, Police Reform and Civil Service ReformStrengthening institutions32Building robust financial systemFurther strengthening of tax administration43Continuing Economic Agendai. Curtailing High Energy CostsPower Sector ReformsHydel PowerGas PipelinesReforms of Oil and Gas industry ii. Removing Water ShortagesWater ReservoirsManagement of Water ResourcesEfficient Usage at the Farm Level44Continuing Economic Agendaiii. Improving Logistics & Removing Supply Chain ConstraintsNational Trade CorridorRetail & Wholesale Markets DevelopmentPorts ModernizationModernizing Transport Fleetiv. Unlocking the Land BankNIPs (National Industrial Parks)Release of Government Land ( Defence, Railways, Provincial Governments etc.)Computerization of Land Transactions45Continuing Economic Agendav. Removing Skills Gap & Enhancing ProductivityNTEVTA5 New Engineering Universities & HEC InitiativesEducation Sector Reformsvi. Boosting Agriculture Sector DevelopmentLivestock SectorFisheriesHorticulture & Value Added AgricultureResearch & Extension ServicesYield Enhancement46Continuing Economic Agendavii. Tourism & Hotel Industry Expansionviii. SMEs & One Village One Productix. Sustaining Industrial Development Beyond Textilesx. Developing Knowledge Based Industry & Outsourcingxi. Strengthening Growth Prospects of Service Sectorxii. Obtaining Preferential Access to Global Markets 47Conclusionsi.Economy Continues to Grow Stronglyii.Reduction in Unemploymentiii.Growing Profitability of Private Sectoriv.Robust Banking Systemv.Strong Growth in Diversified Sectorsvi.Vibrant Telecom Sectorvii.Strong Domestic & External Demand Sustaining Economic Growthviii.Growing opportunities in Infrastructureix.Growing Role of the Private sector