nokia的风险课题研究.ppt

Nokia的风险管理课题的风险管理课题研究研究Background Type: Julkinen osakeyhti (Public) Trade as: OMX-NOK1V,NYSE-NOK Industry: Telecommunications equipment Internet Founded: Tampere, Grand Duchy of Finland (1865) incorporated in Nokia (1871) Founders: Fredrik Idestam Leo Mechelin Headquarters :Espoo, Finland Area served :Worldwide Key people :Risto Siilasmaa (Chairman)Stephen Elop (President & CEO)Company analysisvCompetitive environmentv European and American mobile phone is saturatedv The Apple market revenue soared 147% in Asia, Asian market revenue accounted for 24% of Apples total revenue v As a representative of the Android system, HTC has eyes on its own home market in Asia, and now HTCs market share in Asia is growing at twice the speed of high-speed growth Company analysisv Nokia from 2000 to 2008 has been an upward trend in market share, but slipped to amount in 2011, Saipan attractive to other manufacturers has been reduced to zero due to the emergence of intelligent systems Android and Apple Company analysisv Product Handsets: Nokia 3310 for young people Nokia 8210 for fashion chaser Nokia 6210 WAP for business professional Nokia 7110 WAP with full Chinese interface Nokia 9210 as personnel communicator Nokia 8310, 6310 for GPRS and WAP Service Maps and navigation Message Media software solution Company analysisvCompetitive advantage Give up all irrelevant to the main business products Provide superior quality products and a full range of services Energy-saving phone and continuously improve product energy efficiency Will be a wide variety of mobile phones unified standard vCompetitive disadvantage the policy mistakes Ignore changes in consumer demand Lack of hardware Appearance and performance arent better than the popular phoneactivity in the market, have a sense of lack of the fashionCompany analysisvCompany strategy Vision Corporate strategy Marketing, advertising and promotion Competitive Strategy vTargets for future growth Capture new business opportunities, improve market leading position Development of new products, the introduction of products with new features and functionality Market analysisvRevenue compositionvCost structureMarket analysisv Financial analysis Nokias sales in China grew 31% and its operating profit grew 26% in 2000, among which, mobile handsets contributed to 59% of the sales and 70% of the profit. Mobile handset plays an increasingly important role in Nokias product portfolio, as it represents 59% of the sales in 2000 from 54% in 1999. Nokia has secured an operating margin of 22% in mobile handsets, the highest margin in the mobile handset industry in China, due to highly efficient operations that keep the cost down to minimum, even though intensive competition has driven the operating margin down from 24% in 1999.Crisis When the global industry look to further increase in Nokia,vIn 2007 January, the Apple Corp announced the official flag of intelligent mobile phone:iPhonevIn 2008, Google Corporation announced its intelligent mobile phone operating system: AndroidvIn 2011, Nokia Phone launched a Windows phone system CrisisvNokia from brilliant trend be on the wane.vAffected by this, the company stock is currently over the years nadir.The stock price of NOKIAThe NOKIA crisis situationv APPLE strikes a high-end v Android strike in the high-end and midrange, intrusion in the low-end v emulational mobile phone lock endNOKIA$500IPHONE、Samsung$300-$500HTC、Samsung$150-$250Huawei$150emulational mobile phoneThe main risks of NOKIAvEnvironmental risk Industry risk：Andirod, IOS system. Competitors：Apple, Samsung, HTC, HUAWEI.vOperational risk Product development: Meego system and WP system series have general performance.vRisk of authorization When the Nokia is faced with how to change time, shareholders and directors chose a Microsoft background of Stephen Elop, the Kang Peikai joined Nokia in 1980 had been kicked.Risk analysisvConceit The Symbian mobile phone can not be put in the low end of the market. NOKIA research and development in Android model. For GOOGLE given special attention.vMarket prospect forecasting error,risk alert response to market demand inadequacy, slow, progressive loss of emerging markets.A summary of the causesIn the face of riskMobile phone manufacturers increaseBlind faithSymbian system lose the advantagesNot having reactionConclusionThe creative innovator will be the final WINNER!Interactive/Internet PhoneSmart PhoneEntertainment PhoneConnecting PhoneIphoneNokiaSamsungOther brandsNokiaSamsungOther brandsNokiaSamsungOther brandsPhone Market TrendWhere are they?NOKIAs risk management system and process.NOKIA risk management processesvThe risk management process includes the following main elements:(A) The initial information collection risk management;(B) to conduct a risk assessment;(C) Develop and implement risk management strategies and solutions;(D) monitoring and improvement of risk management.Nokia face of possible risk response measuresAccept the riskA lot of the commercial risk must be acceptedCope with risksFor most of the significant risks to take a proactive response rather than a passive reaction and processing.Transfer riskTransfer risk to reduce the impact (For example: insurance), sharing (for example: to cooperate with others), Transfer through contract. Note: The transfer of risk and will not result in the transfer of responsibility.Termination of riskRisk can terminate specific operations or exit from a market action to avoid.Risk IdentificationAssessControlMeasurement detectionReportFlow chartCollect the initial informationTarget auditRisk IdentificationRisk AnalysisRisk ManagementRisk monitoringNokias methods and techniques to manage these risksOperational risk management methods:vWho in the operational risk management of Nokia?Board of directors, senior management, wind direction and management departments, business managementv Nokia is currently facing this kind of operational risk?1.Nokia most of the management staff of the company are not suitable for their posts. 2.has a huge design team, the companys approval process is also very time spent.v How to address this risk?1.The appointment of new innovation / creation / design director, first of all he should have a Nokia before or now work in Nokia, he has the vision, strategy and plan of operation of Nokia innovation mechanism.2.Optimization of the approval process, even if the application in product innovation concept.2012 Nokia Brief Analysis of annual financial statementsTime20112012Change ratio(%)Net operating income (million euros)103.9973.54-28.9%Phone equipment revenue (million euros)70.8942.46-40%Phone equipment sold (million units)102558270-24%Credit risk management methods:vWhat causes Nokias credit risk?1.First quarter net loss of more than 900 million euros shipments beyond by Samsung2.Fitch debt rating lowered to junk status-BB+, the outlook was uncertainvNokia is how to deal with these issues? The company will continue to focus on streamlining the cost structure, improve cash flow and maintain a strong financial position and is committed to further cut costs.Market risk management methods:vNokia faces how market risk?Company losses continue to expand, resulting in cumulative Nokia shares down 92%. The credit rating to junk. This is a very serious risk commodities and stocks.vHow does Nokia deal with market risk? Nokias decision backs against the wall, to give up the hundreds of millions of Symbian users, and Microsoft to launch WP7 WP8 new mobile phone products, and to intensify propaganda. In order to reduce costs, massive layoffs and other measures takenThe solution of first crisesvConfront the crisis, to improve their understanding of the market demand, the bold and innovative To resolve the crisis, and win market Faced the second crisesvDilemma :Follow the general trend of turning Andrews system orAbandon Saipan, the development of new systems The decline of Nokia is actually not so much Relationship with IPHONE. v A closed hardware and software, the manufacturers of a single product, no matter how well, with the price of market impact is limited, only a partial impact across the board layout NOKIA NOKIA to do then bad just the loss of a high-end marketv The key point is Android How to solve the second crises?v1.Change the CEOv2. Find a Partner v3. Opening up new applications Reason summarize : The increased handset manufacturers ,fierce competition Face the risk Saipan losesFailed to timely reflect Remedial measures vPublicity famous movie star endorsement shooting micro film to publicity new Nokia N9. v N9 is Meego system, which is the last one with this systemTimely response, to make reasonable risk management Nokia declaration UnfollowIf the patient is strong,I choose to fight.If a compromise is hard,I choose to fight for.If the future will be wonderful,I will not give up now.My true,I will prove myself!Equipment and service departmentNAVTEQ Nokia Siemens Networks Nokia revenue compositionSTRENGTHS NOKIANokia offers a broad and flexible GSM BTS portfolio which may help them better cater for emerging / Greenfield opportunities. Aggressive pricing strategies are being used to win business from rivals.Nokia successfully winning GSM business at present. Network sharing is a consistently revisited issue, driven by Nokia, whose products are believed to be optimised for Network Sharing. Nokia increased R&D spend from 02 to 03.#2 for market share in cellular infrastructure manufacture (21% in 2002)Well-positioned to weather pressure from lower ASPs through its low cost structure and focus on consumer segmentation.Q103 Rev up:18% YoY ($7.4B vs. $6.3B), Earnings up:13% YoY ($1.3B vs. $1.15B).#1 handset manufacturer 2002, Handset unit sales up13% and margins at 23.9%.Down only 14% on peak headcount after job cuts which is the lowest percentage cut of all competitors by at least half so this kind of cost cutting will effect them least.Strong software portfolio including AMR/HR/EDGE.In applications and middleware Nokia have a strong mindset which offers operators revenue generation and network management efficienciesWEAKNESSES NOKIA Nokia are having significant technical problems in UMTS despite denying issues with interoperability between Node Bs and RNCs and is going ahead with software release. These problems may lead to operator hesitancy.Nokia are displaying critical weakness in UMTS currently at inflexion point and are having to push EDGE to compensate.24% decline in 2G sales in 02 led to a margin collapse. 15 % network market decline YOY has led to 15% reduction in workforce and potentially lowering in house R&D. Unsure whether to outsource some infrastructure areas, or concentrate on handsets ? Pricing strategies could mean they are selling at a loss to win business.Used customer financing to expand infrastructure share in 2000-02. This cost Nokia + $250M in write-offs in 2002. Nokia are becoming increasingly reliant on 3rd parties for BTSOperating margins decreased (17.5%vs.18.3%), mainly due to weakness in networks. Nokias lacks experience in CDMA and has no business here.Deteriorating relationships with customers.OPPORTUNITIES NOKIA Cost cutting in networks and a continuing ability to finance deals are expected to make Nokia more competitive in infrastructure in the coming year. Could leverage handsets. Strong handset position could help support failing infrastructure success.Could leverage handsets and drive market against commercial influences towards EDGE. Nokia are trying to change the value chain with open BTS architecture initiative, increasing emphasis on modem and transmission in BTS integrating the rest of the equipment.Nokia threaten to dominate corporate positioning with financial, market and organisational ability to lead change towards a software and SI company already using new challengers to help eg; OBSAI. The initiative allows operators to reduce cost in RAN and spend more in other areas. They have already started creating modular BTS architecture.THREATS NOKIA In 00 and 01 Nokia Networks had cost base of c. 1.6b euros per quarter dropping to c.1.3b for most of 02. But it rose sharply in 4Q02.Nokia is the only vendor reversing the trend of financially stabilizing as it displays networks weakness and forced to restructuring.Nokia have displayed margin weakness and have had to make cuts.Aggressive pricing strategies may have meant selling below cost, damaging margins.Other competitors who have already undergone restructuring such as Motorola may be in a stronger competitive position as Nokia goes through an uncertain restructuring processNokia is being replaced in 3 UK and Hong Kong by Siemens NEC. Other Nokia properties are also under threat after a 6 month slip in UMTS roadmap.Nokias lack of experience in CDMA is now showing ands provides competitors with the chance to attack.Critical issues with their RNC product.Nokia faces painful 3G and cost issues.Relationship issues may lose them business.Installed GSM base is weak so competitors may attack with replacement proposals.No experience in 3G technology.