2021年奢侈品未来.docx

ContentsExecutive summary pg.11. Luxury spending trends in 2020 pg.52. Regional highlightspg.113. Distribution trendspg.154. Individual categoryperformancepg.195. Outlook for the futurepg.23Appendixpg.28Figure 1: The global luxury market contracted to 1 trillion in 2020, down 20% to 22% from 2019Worldwide luxury market, 2020E ( billions)Year-over-year (YOY) growth, 2019-20EAt current exchange ratesPersonalLuxuryLuxuryFineGourmetHigh-endFinePrivateLuxuryTotalluxurycarshospitalitywinesfood &furniture &artjets &cruises2020Egoods& spiritsfinehousewaresyachtsdining-21%/-8%/ -55%/-10%/一 25%-10% -65%-13%-15%/-17%-10%/-12%-35%/-10%/-65%/-40%-12%-75%Source: Bain & CompanyFigure 2: Experience-based goods suffered less in 2020 and should recover faster than personal luxury goods; experiences will recover last given their reliance on tourismGrowth of global luxury goods segments, indexed to 2010 (2010-25F)2801802010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20E 21F 22F 23F 24F 25FCAGRYOYCAGR2010-1919-20E20E-25FExperiencebased goods8%-10%5%/9%Experiences9%-56%17%/21%Personal goods6%-21%7%/11%80Expected year of recovery to pre-Covid-19 level (i.e., 2019)Notes: Growth shown at current exchange rates; personal goods include high-end furniture, housewares and personal luxury goods; experience-based goods include fine art, luxury cars, private jets and yachts, fine wines and spirits, and gourmet food; experiences include luxury hospitality, cruises and fine dining Source: Bain & CompanyFigure 3: Covid-19 interrupted the “new normaf5 path of the personal luxury goods market in 2020, leading to the first market contraction in over a decadeGlobal personal luxury goods market ( billions)YOY growth, 2019-20E-23% At current exchange rates-22% At constant exchange ratesCAGR 1996-2019E281254 262 11245 244217161 15920E10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09li207186167212 219139 15°116 122 122 120 12876 84 88 98“Sortie du temple"DemocratizationCrisisChineseshopping frenzyRebootNewnormalCovidcrisisSource: Bain & CompanyFigure 4: Q2 2020 was the worst quarter ever for personal luxury goods. There are signs of recovery in Q3, but uncertainty is the keyword for the holiday seasonGlobal personal luxury goods market, growth trend per quarter in 2020E (QoQ growth rate, 2020E vs. 2019)0% Q1Q2Q3Q4Estimated Q4QOQ growth2019-20E-12% /BaseWorst-22%-50%QOQ growth 2019-20EBest一 5%-10%-20%-23%Most likely outcomeMarket performance in Q4 expected at different pace China at full speed, while Asia in recovery Americas sluggish (though on the right track). Europe still strugglingVariation in Q4 performance driven by: Performance during holiday season Evolution of Covid-19 and related additional restrictions/lockdowns (especially in Europe/Americas) Possible additional socioeconomic tensions (e.g., post-US elections, government measures in Europe) Macroeconomic evolutionEstimated full-year market growth(2020E vs. 2019)Source: Bain & CompanyRegional highlightsIn 2020, the global ranking of luxury sales by region changed quite dramatically. Until 2019, Europe and the Americas were the biggest regions for luxury sales, but in 2020 Asia became the top region for luxury sales.This is largely driven by the performance of Mainland China, which has been the only region globally to end the year on a positive note, growing by 45% at current exchange rates to reach 44 billion. Local consumption rebounded quickly and accelerated week after week, roaring ahead across all channels, categories, generations and price points. Travel retail in Mainland China experienced a boom this year, particularly in Hainan. However, total purchases made by Chinese customers experienced a 30%-35% decline, due to Chinese customers not traveling: Purchases made abroad (historically up to two-thirds of total purchases by Chinese customers) thus declined by 70%.Japan shrank by 24% at current exchange rates to 18 billion. Japanese customers refrained from spending during the crisis, but favored timeless brands viewed as long-term investments.The rest of Asia struggled, contracting by 35% at current exchange rates to reach 27 billion. Hong Kong and Macau were among the worst performers globally. South Korean consumers showed strong appetite for luxury consumption, yet the duty-free market slumped. In Southeast Asia, a small and developing local customer base was not able to offset the collapse in tourism.Europe has borne the brunt of a collapse in global tourism. Demand fell by 36% at current exchange rates to 57 billion. In the second quarter, it was the worstperforming region globally, due to lack of tourism, lockdown measures, store network closures and low consumer confidence. However, local consumption showed resilience: Purchases by European customers decreased only by 10% 15%. Local consumption moved to wealthy areas and showed the biggest shift to the online channel globally. Among European countries, Russia experienced the best performance.The Americas experienced less impact: The market fell by 27% at current exchange rates to 62 billion. In the US, local consumption showed the same resilience as in Europe (-10% to -15%). Despite lockdowns and political uncertainty, there were positive signs of a restart in Q3 due to the stimulus package. Department stores seem to have reached a point of no return and face an uncertain future. The map of luxury consumption seems to be redrawn to move away from city centers. In South America, Brazil performed better than the regional average.Overall, the rest of the world contracted by 21 % at current exchange rates to 9 billion. The impact in the Middle East was mitigated by shorter lockdowns and repatriation of spending previously made abroad, though with different nuances among countries within the region (the United Arab Emirates was most impacted). In Australia, the halt in tourism amplified a slowdown from the wildfires.Regional shifts mark an acceleration of a rebalancing of where luxury purchases take place, as tourists shift to buy in their home markets. The share of purchases made locally reached 80%-85% this year, and we expect it to represent between 65% and 70% as domestic purchases regain relevance, especially in China and the broader Asian region.Figure 5: Asia became the top region for luxury sales by valueShare of global personal luxury goods market, by region ( billions)CAGR2010-20EYOY arowth2019-20E1%1%-1%2%9%Note: Growth shown at current exchange rates Source: Bain & Company-21%-24%-36%-27%-2%Figure 6: China was the best performing country but had the most affected customers (not traveling); Europe was the most affected region but had the best performing customers (locally)Share of global personal luxury goods market,by consumer nationality ( billions, 2019-20E)Share of global personal luxury goods market, by region ( billions, 2019-20E)2816%2175%-7%2812174%7-9103324-2617-1913-1527-29302831151126132020192020E20192020ERest of worldIChinese/China Other Asian/Rest of Asia European/Europe American/Americas Japanese/JapanSource: Bain & CompanyFigure 7： The global luxury market, historically tourism dependent, confirmed its more local nature in 2020 and should continue doing so in the coming yearsShare of global personal luxury goods market, by local customers vs. tourists ( billions, 2015-25F)330-3702020E2025F20152019Note: F indicates forecasted growth Source: Bain & CompanyDistribution trendsWholesale remained the largest channel for luxury goods, accounting for 54% of all sales. Yet the retail channel resisted better, growing its share to 46% (up from 40%).The distribution landscape underwent a significant transformation in 2020. Three channels were particularly affected: travel retail (due to the freeze in world travel), department stores and specialty stores. Monobrand stores and outlets also suffered due to closures, but were able to maintain their share.Online was the fastest-growing channel, increasing by 50% and nearly doubling its share to reach 23% of luxury sales globally (up from 12% in 2019). Online sales made up 49 billion in 2020, up from 33 billion in 2019. Globally, the online channel influenced 85% of luxury transactions (compared with 75% in 2019), and 40% to 50% of purchases were digitally enabled (compared with 20% to 25% in 2019).Online's dramatic increase comes at the expense of brick-and-mortar stores. Bain expects no growth in the number of stores operated directly by brands in 2020 and a possible decline in store footprints in 2021. Brands w川 need to adjust their footprints to the new map of luxury buying, evolve the store role and its ergonomics, and maximize the customer experience.The wave of transformation should not leave wholesale distribution untouched: Perimeter contraction, polarized performance and entry of new players will lead luxury brands to increase their control on the channel.Figure 8: Wholesale remained the dominant channel for luxury goods, but owned retail resisted betterShare of global personal luxury goods market, by channel ( billions)CAGR2010-20EYOY arowth2019-20E281I Retail Wholesale0%-30%8%-11%2817%217-3%2020E2019Note: Growth shown at current exchange rates Source: Bain & CompanyFigure 9: All brick-and-mortar channels were dramatically hit in 2020, leading to a distribution ecosystem transformationShare of global personal luxury goods market, by distribution channel and format ( billions)YOY2019-20E-70%-40-40-15-22+50I Online Monobrand stores Outlet Specialty stores Department stores Travel retailSource: Bain & CompanyFigure 10: Online luxury doubled its share of the global market in 2020, a skyrocketing performance worth five years of growthGlobal online personal luxury goods market ( billions)+1649201520192020E7%12%23%Online influenced purchases 20192020Online marketshare in luxuryDigitally enabled purchases 20192020Source: Bain & CompanyIndividual category performance Accessories remained the largest personal luxury goods category and decelerated less than the average. This category represented 36% of the total personal luxury goods market in 2020. Beauty, leather goods and apparel continued to make up the bulk of global luxury purchases, amounting to 48 billion, 47 billion and 45 billion, respectively. Beauty purchases declined at 20% compared with 2019. The category was strongly affected by the shutdown of specialized stores and travel retail. The online channel and the APAC region acted as the category's only “lungs.” Cosmetics (particularly skin care) performed better than fragrances. Leather goods decreased by 18%. Entry items (supported by e-commerce) and iconic products (supported by high-spending consumers in Asia) resisted better than the average. Apparel and watches both declined by 30%. In apparel, lockdown policies negatively impacted demand for formal wear, and in contrast, drove strong demand for streetwear and athleisure. Apparel players faced increasing competition from social media savvy, direct-to-consumer brands. Menswear and womenswear declined at the same pace, albeit with different patterns by region. For watches, global purchases amounted to 27 billion. The poor performance of the category was mitigated by the resilience of the online channel, the China market and the most iconic brands and models. Shoes and jewelry were the product categories that decelerated the least. Shoe purchases fell by only 12% to 19 billion, cushioned by demand in casual models (including sports and functional models, such as sneakers), while demand for formal and classic models contracted. Jewelry saw sustained demand in Asia and benefited from online sales. That category remains polarized with high jewelry and iconic entry-priced items leading the recovery.Across product categories, entry-price items gained in relevance, reaching more than 50% of volumes sold in 2020. In the quest for pricing relevance, the rules of the game are rapidly changing accessible luxury as we knew it, due to increasing competition from new, insurgent brands with relevant purpose and innovative business models.Figure 11: Despite a strong deceleration, accessories remained the largest personal luxury goods categoryShare of global personal luxury goods market, by category ( billions)CAGR CAGRNote: Growth shown at current exchange rates Source: Bain & Company2010-20E2019-20EHard luxury2-25Apparel030Accessories618Beauty 2%-20%Figure 12: Shoes and jewelry were the product categories that decelerated the least, followed by leather goods and beautyGlobal personal luxury goods market, by product category ( billions, 2020E)484745271918ShoesBeautyLeatherApparelWatchesJewelry-20%-18%-30%-30%-12%-15%YOY grow n 2019-20ENote: Growth shown at current exchange rates Source: Bain & CompanyOutlook for the futureIt has been a year of profound change in the way global luxury consumers live and shop and in what they value. Scenarios for 2021 are varied, and Bain forecasts growth that ranges from +10%/12% to +17%/19%, depending on macroeconomic conditions, the evolution of Covid-19 and the speed of return to travel globally, as well as the resilience and confidence of local customers.The decline in revenue in 2020 should take a disproportionate toll on profitability we expect operating profit to decline by 60% in 2020 compared with 2019 (i.e., from an average of 21% margin to 12% margin). According to our analysis, in 2021 the market is expected to recover 50% of the profit loss of 2020but still remain below 2019 levels. This is due to requirements to continue spending, and sometimes even accelerate investment, on most cost items (marketing, online channels, store costs) despite the drop in sales.We expect the recovery to gather pace over the next three years, with the personal luxury goods market returning to 2019 levels by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Over the longer run, the market for pe