Fitch China Trade and Investment Risk Report
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1、Q4 ChinaChina T Tr rade and Inade and Inv vesestment Risk Rtment Risk Reporteport Includes the Fitch Solutions Operational Risk IndexContentsTrade And Investment Risk.4Trade And Investment Risk Key View.4Trade And Investment Risk SWOT .6Economic Openness Analysis .7Government Intervention Analysis
2、.20Legal Environment Analysis .27Trade And Investment Risk Methodology.33 20 2019 Fit19 Fitch Solutions Grch Solutions Group Limitoup Limited.ed. All rights rAll rights reserveserved.ed.All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Fitch Solutions Group Limited is for the exclusive use o
3、f subscribing persons or organisations (including those using the service on a trial basis). All such content is copyrighted in the name of Fitch Solutions Group Limited and as such no part of this content may be reproduced, repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Fitch So
4、lutions Group Limited.All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. Fitch Solutions Group Limited makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of
5、any information provided, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content.This report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 0
6、8789939 (FSG). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. (Fitch Ratings). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright 2019 Fitch Solutions Group Limited.China Trade and Investment Risk Report | Q4 THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOL
7、UTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings credit ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from FitchSolutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research. 3Trade A
8、nd Investment RiskTrade And Investment Risk Key ViewKey View:Chinas large domestic market, investment incentives in high value-added sectors, high research and development expenditure, andrelatively stable political environment are all conducive for foreign investment. Intellectual property protecti
9、on is expectedto improve over the coming years as the Chinese government seeks to move up the value chain, andsignificant progress has been madein reforming state-owned entities. Efforts are also being made tofurther reform the financial sector by increasing market access and liberalising capital ma
10、rkets over the coming years, as well as cracking down on the shadow banking sector. However,the trade tensions with the US have weakened the countrys trade growth,targeting itsMade in China 2025 initiative and affecting export volumes, as well as businesses in industries such as electronics and mach
11、inery. Taking these factors into consideration, we awardChina a moderate score of 57.7out of 100 for overall Trade and Investment Risk, placing the country ninth out of 18 states in the East and South East Asia region.Trade Talks Entering Final Stages China 0 = lowest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions T
12、rade and Investment Risk IndexEconomic Openness (48.7/100): China continues to have one of the highest trade volumes in the world; however, the trade tensions with the US have weakened the countrys trade growth. Consequent heightened tariffs between the two superpowers have further added to the burd
13、en of high labour costs in China, making it costly to operate in the country. This has led to many businesses, particularly in manufacturing, moving their production lines to alternative centres in the region, such as Vietnam and Cambodia.That said, an end to the trade tensions may be on the horizon
14、 as further tariff hikes have been delayed due to substantial progress in talks between the two sides. We are also seeing China move towards liberalisation, withBeijing stepping up efforts to open up the domestic market to foreign players amid pressures from trading partners. An adoption of a more c
15、onsistent and transparent system for foreign investors is underway, as well as continued cutting of import tariffs (for partners other than the US) over the coming years. We also expect to see state-owned entity (SOE) reforms proceeding at a faster pace due to a more reform- minded leadership, with
16、the focus being on optimising the ownership structures of SOEs by encouraging private investment. However, full-scale privatisation is still not on the agenda.Government Intervention (56.9/100): The Chinese economy is characterised by a strong state presence, with a high number of state-owned enterp
17、rises (SOEs). However, significant progress has been made in reforming SOEs, and we expect the administrationChina Trade and Investment Risk Report | Q4 THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings credit ratings. Any comments or data included
18、in the report are solely derived from FitchSolutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research. 4led by President Xi Jinping to remain committed to conducting SOE reforms at a gradual pace over the coming years
19、. The country also operates a number of special economic zones, which offer more liberal operating environments with incentives such as lower tax rates, streamlined bureaucracy and reduced customs tariffs, among others. In addition, Chinas financial markets are highly sophisticated and well integrat
20、ed globally, with efforts being made to further reform the financial sector. The country is also cracking down on shadow bankingin order to mitigate systemic financial risks that could threaten the wider economy. These reforms are likely to be positive for the country over the long term, although th
21、ey may somewhat constrain access to funding for smaller firms.Legal Risk (67.7/100): Xi Jinpings government has been strengthening policies to bolster bureaucratic reforms, which have yielded efficiency gains for procedures surrounding opening a new business, registering a property and obtaining con
22、struction permits, among others. China has also bolstered its contract enforcement capabilities and can therefore offer increased protection to investors involved in contractual disputes. The Chinese government has been pressing forward with efforts to open up the economy to foreign investment and s
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