Why China Will Win the Trade War – Foreign Policy.pdf
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1、2019/10/25Why China Will Win the Trade War Foreign Policy “W ARGUMENT Why China Will Win the Trade War Trump thinks he has a strong hand. In fact, Washington is far more vulnerable than Beijing. BY PHILIPPE LEGRAIN | APRIL 13, 2018, 10:00 AM hen youre already $500 Billion DOWN, you cant lose!” U.S.
2、President Donald Trump tweeted on April 4. He seems to believe that because the United States has a huge trade defi cit with China actually $337 billion in 2017, not $500 billion he is bound to win the impending trade war between the two countries. But even though China sells more to America than it
3、 buys in return, Beijings position is actually much stronger, both economically and politically, than that crude calculus suggests. Economically, both the United States and China would lose from a trade war. Punitive tariff s would push up import prices, dent exports, cost jobs, and crimp economic g
4、rowth, so both sides would do best to avoid an outbreak of hostilities. But now that the Trump administration is threatening to impose 25 percent tariff s on $46 billion of U.S. imports from China and China has responded in kind, a trade war looms. Trump has since raised the stakes by threatening ta
5、riff s on a further $100 billion of imports (so far unspecifi ed), which Beijing promptly said it would match. Trumps calculation appears to be that China has more to lose and so will back down. He is wrong. Headline statistics greatly overstate Chinas economic vulnerability and understate Americas.
6、 Focusing on trade in goods, as most observers do, U.S. imports from China last year totaled $506 billion, nearly four times its exports in the other direction ($131 billion). But the United States also sold $38 billion more in services to China than it bought in return, its biggest bilateral surplu
7、s. And whereas U.S. goods exports to China are mostly agricultural produce and fi nished products consisting of Trumps calculation appears to be that China has more to lose and so will back down. He is wrong. The story doesnt end here, but this months free articles soon will. Subscribe for unlimited
8、 content today. Subscribe for $2.25/week Sign In 2019/10/25Why China Will Win the Trade War Foreign Policy mostly American content and sold by U.S. fi rms, Chinas exports to the United States are typically Chinese-assembled goods that contain many foreign parts and components and are often American-
9、branded to boot. A further 37 percent of U.S. imports from China consist of parts and components on which U.S.-based manufacturers rely. Take Apples iPhone. When iPhones are shipped from Chinese factories to the United States, the full import cost is attributed to China. Yet these phones include a S
10、amsung display from South Korea, a Toshiba memory chip from Japan, and many other foreign components. According to one estimate, assembly in China accounts for only 3-6 percent of the $370 manufacturing cost of an iPhone X. Since that smartphone retails for $999, the bulk of the value added is Ameri
11、can: Apples margin and that of U.S. retailers. Admittedly, that is an extreme example, and Trump isnt yet targeting iPhone imports. So, consider instead the $46 billion in imports that Trump is threatening, of which $26 billion are electronic goods. Ostensibly designed to stymie the Chinese governme
12、nts Made in China 2025 drive to develop its own high-tech products, his tariff s would mainly aff ect lower-tech products that China actually exports to America right now. And according to estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), nearly half of the content of Ch
13、inese exports of computer, electronic, and optical equipment to United States is foreign. (The latest data is from 2011, so that proportion may have shifted somewhat since.) Even if the proposed tariff s were to slash Chinas exports of these products by a quarter, the direct hit to China would be $6
14、.5 billion roughly 0.05 percent of the countrys GDP. For an economy growing at 6.8 percent per year, that would be a pin prick. Even a blanket U.S. tariff on all Chinese goods exports iPhones and all would be bearable for China. The OECD reckons that around a third of the content of U.S. imports fro
15、m China is actually of foreign origin. So the Chinese value added of its exports to the United States is perhaps $329 billion some 2.7 percent of Chinas $12 trillion economy. So even if a blanket Trump tariff slashed Chinas exports to the United States by 25 percent, the direct hit to GDP would be 0
16、.7 percent. That would hurt. But it would still leave the Chinese economy growing at 6.1 percent a year. It is very unlikely to come to that, precisely because the United States is much more vulnerable to a trade war than Trump thinks. Imagine the consumer uproar if Trump slapped a tariff on iPhones
17、! Indeed, because so many U.S. fi rms outsource production to China, they are acutely vulnerable to dirty Chinese tricks, such as halting production for a while on spurious regulatory grounds. The story doesnt end here, but this months free articles soon will. Subscribe for unlimited content today.
18、Subscribe for $2.25/week Sign In 2019/10/25Why China Will Win the Trade War Foreign Policy The threat isnt just to American-branded products that American consumers love. A trade war also poses a threat to U.S.-based manufacturers that rely on Chinese parts and components to be globally competitive.
19、 Trumps $46 billion list already targets aircraft propellers, machine tools, and other intermediate goods. Pushing up their costs would threaten manufacturing jobs in Americas heartland. And while those tariff s avoid consumer staples such as clothing and footwear, they will infl ate the prices of s
20、ome consumer goods, such as televisions and dishwashers. In contrast, Chinas potential retaliation is much better targeted. First in line is $16 billion of U.S. civilian aircraft exports. Boeings share price slumped when the Chinese move was announced. But Chinese airlines are expanding so fast that
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