Another outbreak we are not ready.doc
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1、如有侵权,请联系网站删除,仅供学习与交流Another outbreak we are not ready【精品文档】第 3 页Another outbreak? We are not ready.When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. Thats why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we we
2、re supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel. 0:36 Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesnt look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, its most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than
3、a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that weve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But weve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. Were not ready for the next epidemic. 1:19 Lets look at Ebola. Im sure all of you read about it in th
4、e newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasnt that there was a system that didnt work well enough, the problem was that we didnt have a system at all. In fact, there
5、s some pretty obvious key missing pieces. 1:50 We didnt have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We d
6、idnt have a medical team ready to go. We didnt have a way of preparing people. Now, Mdecins Sans Frontires did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us t
7、o have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect t
8、hem. But that was never tried. 2:52 So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies its quite different. Theres a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, th
9、ey move in, they save the day, but thats just pure Hollywood. 3:21 The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola Lets look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countri
10、es. Theres three reasons why it didnt spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time youre contagious, most pe
11、ople are so sick that theyre bedridden. Third, it didnt get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger. 4:16 So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while
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