英国智库-6G的战略设置:中国和美国的路径(英)-2022.8-37正式版.pdf
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1、The International Institute for Strategic StudiesStrategic Settings for 6G:Pathways for China and the USJohn Lee, Meia Nouwens and Kai Lin Tay August 2022ContentsExecutive Summary 2Chapter One: 6G: Technical Fundamentals, Enabling Technologies and Envisaged Uses 4Chapter Two: Development of the Wire
2、less Telecommunications Sector 6The US Path Towards 5G and 6G 7Chinas Path Towards 5G and 6G 9Chapter Three: Wireless Telecoms Innovation Ecosystems 12Academic Collaboration and Knowledge Networks 12Collaboration Between the US and China 13Role of Government 14Role of Industry 16Standard Setting 18C
3、hapter Four: Geopolitics of Wireless Innovation 19Chapter Five: Defence and Security Implications for the US and China 21Conclusion 23Strategic Settings for 6G: Pathways for China and the US 2 Executive Summary6G wireless telecommunications is a key emerging tech-nology that has already become a fie
4、ld for international strategic competition, most notably between the United States and China. By dramatically increasing capacity and lowering latency for wireless-data transmission, 6G promises to enable applications on new orders of mag-nitude or which are qualitatively new. These effects will tra
5、nslate into comparative national economic perfor-mance and into military capabilities available to states.6Gs performance parameters are still being defined, and its enabling technologies are still in relatively early stages of research and development (R&D). However, both the US and China, motivate
6、d by their intensify-ing strategic rivalry, are already prioritising the tech-nologys development and exploring its potential for military uses.Whereas national-security concerns around 5G are focused on its potential for espionage or sabotage through the presence in networks of equipment from polit
7、ically untrusted actors, 6G will directly impact the international balance of military capabilities. For exam-ple, one of 6Gs expected military uses is rapid, reliable and secure transmission of much higher volumes of data between fast-moving military platforms, including in outer space for ballisti
8、c-missile early warning.To date, Washington has not prioritised develop-ment of next-generation telecoms to the extent that Beijing has, notably in deployment of 5G infrastruc-ture and services. The upshot is long-term erosion of the US telecoms equipment industry. At the same time, the US still has
9、 strengths in its innovation ecosystems and in that US firms are well-positioned in key enabling technologies for next-generation telecoms, for example capabilities in software and semiconductors. The US is now shifting towards a more active government role in development of strategic emerging techn
10、ologies, includ-ing 6G. Washington is also pursuing partnerships with allied and partner nations to accelerate as well as coor-dinate technological developments in ways that increas-ingly exclude China and capitalise on US strengths. Chinas approach to technological development is state led, and it
11、seeks to channel all the nations resources under direct government influence and to manipu-late markets and global standards setting in Beijings favour. This statist approach has helped Chinese firms and research institutions immensely. From a negligible role in the global telecoms industry in the 1
12、980s, China now holds advantageous positions in many aspects of 5G wireless telecoms, providing a strong foundation for further progress. This is reflected in metrics for 6G devel-opment such as patent filings and real-world implemen-tations of relevant enabling or precursor technologies. However, C
13、hinas capacity to develop 6G faces major constraints from continuing reliance on foreign techno-logical inputs and US targeting of these dependencies through export controls as well as other measures. Given the potentially significant effects of 6G on national security and economics, coupled with in
14、creas-ingly diverging geopolitical interests between the US and China, competition in this field among the two powers alongside other technologically capable states is expected to intensify. This contestation will increasingly extend to third-party markets as more countries build next-generation tel
15、ecoms infrastructure with implica-tions for international technological ecosystems and the global balance of technological power.Specification of 6G parameters and technical standard-isation is still several years away with commercial avail-ability of 6G technologies expected by the late 2020s. The
16、coming years thus provide a window to frame policy-research agendas for 6G and to examine the underlying drivers of innovation ecosystems for future wireless-tel-ecoms development. This requires a grasp of the basic nature of the technology and its applications, the relative positions of the US and
17、China in its development and the way these two states intensifying rivalry will shape evolution of a global telecoms industry that has become highly transnational and commercially driven.This report first outlines the technological basics concerning 6G and its envisaged applications. It then 3 The I
18、nternational Institute for Strategic Studiesreviews how the US and China have arrived at their current positions in the development of wireless tel-ecoms. Next, the report examines academic collabo-ration and knowledge networks between the two countries and third parties, the role of government in t
19、he US and China in 6G development, and the role of industry in each power. The study then looks at international stand-ards setting as an aspect of this national competition and at the broader international politics of 6G. Finally, the report assesses the defence and security implications of 6G. Str
20、ategic Settings for 6G: Pathways for China and the US 4 Chapter One: 6G: Technical Fundamentals, Enabling Technologies and Envisaged Uses6G is expected to deliver major boosts to various telecoms performance metrics such as capacity, latency, reliability and efficiency (in terms of both spectrum usa
21、ge as well as energy usage).1 Networks built to 5G specifications already promise significant capability improvements, but they cannot meet the requirements of various emergent applications like multi-sensory extended-reality applications, multi-way virtual meeting with holographic projections, remo
22、te surgery and autonomous robotics.2 6G wire-less networks will exploit higher-frequency ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum that are not cur-rently used by telecommunications. Development of 6G technologies is focused on the 95 gigahertz to 3 terahertz (THz) frequency range: the US government be
23、gan licensing this spectrum range for experimental development in 2019.3 The table below shows a selec-tive representation comparing technical parameters of 5G and 6G. Technologies commonly cited as potential appli-cations of 6G include pervasive artificial intelligence (AI), 3D communications infra
24、structure and terahertz communications technologies.4 Although AI is already being used in 5G networks, current techniques still rely on centralised learning and have yet to realise a truly distributed learning mechanism at the edge of networks, with significant intelligent functions resid-ing in te
25、rminal devices rather than the network core. Given the propagation characteristics of the short wavelength frequencies 6G is likely to use, networks based on existing cellular architectures may not be commercially viable, meaning that 6G may instead use more distributed and dynamic (cell-free) netwo
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