全球油田服务:马士基为何是拥有钻井平台的公司.docx
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1、6 December 2019/卜 HSBCGlobal ResearchTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINAGlobal Oilfield ServicesEquitiesEnergy Equipment & ServicesDeep liquidity: Why Maersk is the rig player to ownGlobalMarket characterised by liquidity concerns and rising rig bond yields; our analysis shows wors
2、ening risk profiles forNE/VAL We take a cautious view on the pace of recovery in offshore rigs via lower utilisation and dayrate assumptionsCut TPs and estimates; downgrade VAL, NE, COSL-A to Reduce and BDRILL, DO to Hold; Buy on DRLCO and RIGtarek.solimanhsbc +44 20 3268 5528Employed by a non-US af
3、fibate of HSBC Securities (USA) kncv and is not registecod/ qualified pursuant to FINRA rogutatonsIssuer of report: HSBC Bank PteThis video must bo viowod with the disdosuros and cortQbons and with tho dtsdamor. onthobnk attached to this mecSa playerTarek SolimanAnalystKey theme - liquidity risks: T
4、he markets focus on liquidity risk is evident from rising driller bond yields (in some cases rising to the mid-teens). The rig sector has de-rated significantly (shares down over 50% so far this year), implying a large valuation gap if the markets recovery expectations are realistic. But weve seen o
5、nly a gradual pick-up in market fundamentals; dayrate recovery now looks markedly slower than we expected in mid-2019. We also expect a slower pick-up in overall demand leading to lower utilisation. On our new estimates, the rig sector doesnt as a whole generate positive FCF until 2022. Our liquidit
6、y analysis highlights VAL and NE, as particularly vulnerable, with RCF drawdown of over 50% potentially in the next 12-18 months. In this environment of heightened sector liquidity risks, we prefer relatively resilient names such as DRLCO (robust balance sheet and FCF positive) and RIG (top end flee
7、t with strong backlog).Forecast changes: We lower our dayrate / utilisation estimates, especially for ultradeepwater. On average, our EBITDA forecasts are down by 46% for 2019, 22% for 2020 and 13% for 2021 一 we are 5-6% below consensus EBITDA for 2020/21. We raise our cost of capital to reflect cre
8、dit risks and lower our rig asset values; on average, our DCF values are lower by 57%, and our RMV by 55%. Across the group, our TPs are 34% below the street (more for VAL, NE, less for DRILCO, DO).Investment views: We prefer Buy-rated DRLCO and RIG, on balance sheet flexibility, positive FCF, fleet
9、 quality and backlog cover. Liquidity risks look highest for VAL and NE, which we downgrade to Reduce in this report. With other rig-exposed names in the sector, we have Buys on COSL-H and SPM.Abhishek Kumar*AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited abhishek.kumarhsbc.co.in+
10、91 80 4555 2753Tarek Soliman*, CFAAnalystHSBC Bank plctarek.solimanhsbc +44 20 3268 5528David Phillips*Head of Equity Research, Developed EuropeHSBC Bank plcdavid.1 .phillipshsbc +44 20 7991 7558Thomas C. Hilboldt*, CFAHead of Resources & Energy Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Bankin
11、g Corporation Limited thomaschilboldthsbc .hk +852 2822 2922Anshak Singhal*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsCompanyTickerCurr.Current PriceMCap (USDm)Old Rating New RatingOld TPNew TPUpside/
12、_ Downside_EV/EBITDA (x) 2019e2020ePB (x)2019e2020eTransoceanRIG USUSD5.03,047BuyBuy12.05.918.5%14.511.50.30.3DiamondDO USUSD5.7778BuyHold11.25.70.9%36.217.00.20.3NobleNEUSUSD1.1264BuyReduce2.60.3-71.7%12.813.30.10.1ValarisVAL USUSD4.3843BuyReduce17.53.4-20.2%75.024.50.10.1Borr DrillingBDRILL NONOK5
13、9.9730BuyHold134.064.06.9%NM19.10.50.6Maersk Drilling DRLCO DCDKK410.62,517BuyBuy637.0546.033.0%9.27.50.70.7China Oilfield-H 2883 HKHKD10.59,461BuyBuy13.5713.5728.7%8.87.01.21.1China Oilfield-A 601808 CHCNY16.79,461HoldReduce12.5312.18-27.0%8.87.02.12.0SaipemSPM IMEUR4.154,627BuyBuy5.205.2025.3%4.24
14、.21.01.0Key investment ratings and valuationsNote: Current prices as of close 29 November 2019. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimatesDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part
15、of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at: s :/ research, hsbc. comValarisReduce TP USD3.4Valaris (VAL US): Downgrade to Reduce from Buy, TP USD3.4 (from USD17.50)The mergers with Atwood and Rowan have improved VALs fleet mix givi
16、ng it solid exposure to the harsh environment jackup market in the North Sea. But it also created problems for VAL. Its debt has grown significantly and it also saddled VAL with several unemployed rigs (leading to a higher operating cost). VAL currently needs around USD1 bn over next three years (ne
17、gative free cash and debt obligations). Even if we assume complete drawdown of USD1.6bn RCF, VAL will need another USD300m in 2022, while its RCF is up for renewal in 2022. VAL may need other source of financing which could either mean a sale of some of its assets or a capital raise, both of which a
18、re dilutive for existing shareholders. Furthermore, we think VALs contract coverage going into 2020 is low and that also presents a risk. Given the risks related to liquidity and contract coverage, we downgrade to Reduce from Buy.Other companies with substantial offshore drilling exposureSaipem (SPM
19、 IM, CMP EUR4.15): Rated Buy, TP EUR5.20SaipemBuy TP EUR5.20SPM has an offshore fleet of 12 rigs with exposure to both shallow and deep water. Our RMV calculations suggest a value of USD1.34bn.This translates to a value of EUR1.21bn, or EUR1.20 per share. SPM is our preferred name in subsea OFS, des
20、pite our expectation of flat offshore orders and revenues (EUR4bn out to 2022) over 2020-21, its recent USD880m SURF award with ExxonMobil in Guyana effectively takes it to its 1 x B2B target for 2019. The continued backlog growth in the Onshore E&C business provides increasing top-line visibility o
21、ut to 2022 (significant YTD orders include USD6bn Mozambique LNG, USD3.5bn Saudi Aramco, EUR2.2bn Arctic LNG and a possibility of an Nigeria LNG award in 2019 remains). We conservatively value this segment at 0.3x sales, but using peer multiples of 0.4-0.5x we could see a higher fair value of EUR1 p
22、er share.Saipem: Rig market value summary tableDetailsUSDmRig Steel ValueU75Present Value of Contracts61Rig Market Value (RMV)1,336Source: HSBC estimates, Data as on November 2019COSL H/A Buy/Reduce TP HKD13.57/RMB12.18China Oilfield Services (2883 HK, CMP HKD10.54 /601808 CH, CMP RMB16.66): Rated B
23、uy/Downgrade to Reduce, TP HKD13.57/RMB12.18A significant part of COSL is focused on offshore drilling and its fleet of 52 rigs (both shallow water and deep water). Our RMV calculations suggest a value of USD4.2bn for COSLs fleet.COSL is an important global Oilfield Services (OFS) provider, 54%-owne
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