印尼汽车业:引擎盖之下.docx
《印尼汽车业:引擎盖之下.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《印尼汽车业:引擎盖之下.docx(104页珍藏版)》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。
1、HSBCGlobal ResearchEquitiesAutomobilesBy: Colin Davis and Rahul BhatiaApril 2019 research.hsbc SpOtl ightIndonesian Autos -Under the hood A deep dive into the mechanics of Indonesias 2-wheeler and 4-wheeler marketsWe conduct an in-depth market sizing and statistical analysis of the 4W and 2W markets
2、Our two consumer surveys provide insight into brand perception and consumer preferencesWe introduce new market growth forecasts to2020and upgrade Astra International to Buy from HoldDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosu
3、re appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MCI (P) 065/01/2019 MCI (P) 008/02/2019Our survey found that buyers are optimisticBoth surveys found that buyers are optimistic about their financial circumstances in 2019.Over 90% of respondents in both signalled that they were either opt
4、imistic or very optimistic about 2019. Both surveys also found that wage increases were the single most important factor influencing their decision to buy.Exhibit 12: 4W survey: Do you feel optimistic about your financial circumstances improving in 2019?Exhibit 13: 4W survey: Reason for buying a veh
5、icle (share of responses in the top 3)Buyers express a preference for Astra Very optimisticOptimistic NeutralPessimisticSource: HSBC, TolunaWage increase by about 10% Wage increase by about 20% Wage increase by about 30%+New model launchUpgrade to a better modelReplace an old 4- wheeler Need an addi
6、tional PVPurchase first carFuel prices downOther reasonsSource: HSBC, TolunaBuyers expressed a preference for Astra dealerships, but mostly because of location rather than the service they provide.Exhibit 14: Would you prefer to use an Astra dealership.Exhibit 15: .if so why?Source: HSBC, Toluna NoI
7、 dont know Yes Convenient locationPurchase a vehicle in past Good reputation Good promotionsOther reasonsSource: HSBC, TolunaBuyers tended to be satisfied with their last purchase.0% 0%Respondents signalled a shift in preference toward Honda and MitsubishiExhibit 16: 4W survey: How satisfied are you
8、 with the purchase? Extremely satisfiedQuite satisfied NeutralNot very satisfiedExtremely dissatisfiedSource: HSBC, TolunaNevertheless, there was a noticeable shift away from what they own today toward new brands and models. The most significant shift was toward Honda and Mitsubishi at the expense o
9、f Toyota and Daihatsu. The charts below are better read in the context of the full survey results, beginning on page 42, as the survey respondents displayed some initial sample bias toward Honda and Toyota.Exhibit 17: What brand of 4-wheeler are you likely to buy this year?Exhibit 18: What model are
10、 you likely to buy? HondaToyota Mitsubishi DaihatsuSuzuki Others XpanderAvanzaErtiga OthersSource: HSBC, TolunaSource: HSBC, Toluna2019 may see upgrading2019 may see upgradingFor 2-wheelers, it was harder to discern a noticeable trend toward or away from Honda. By model, respondents signalled that t
11、hey intended to purchase a new Honda at about the same rates of their present ownership. More obvious was an intention to upgrade to higher ASP bikes.Exhibit 19: What model did you buy?Honda BeatExhibit 20: What model are you likely to buy?Honda BeatHonda VarioYamaha MioHonda VarioYTD sales of 4-whe
12、elers have been weak, while sales of 2- wheelers have been strong Honda ScoopyYamaha V-Ixion Honda Supra X Honda Revo10%7% 8% Yamaha Soul GT Yamaha MX-King Honda CB150R21% Yamaha Mio Honda ScoopyYamaha V-IxionHonda CB150R StreetFireStreetFire Others OthersSource: HSBC, TolunaSource: HSBC, TolunaOur
13、outlook and forecasts versus IHS, Gaikindo, AISI, and FitchThe market for 2-wheelers has been exceptionally strong in the months of January and February, and the market for 4-wheelers weak. In the 4-wheeler market, retail sales declined by 9% yoy while wholesale fell 14%. Astras market share was som
14、ewhat weaker in retail (49.8%) compared to wholesale (51.3%), a result of de-stocking by Honda. The 2-wheeler market in contrast rose 19% yoy. Honda sales grew by 24% yoy, Yamaha by 2%, Suzuki by 67% and Kawasaki by 20%. To summarise, 4-wheeler sales disappointed, particularly for Astra, while 2-whe
15、eler sales were exceptionally strong, in particular for Astra.Exhibit 21: Passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle and 2-wheeler growth yoy% y/y Commercial vehicles% y/y Passenger vehicles% y/y 2WSource: Gaikindo, AISI2W sales did well in spite of palm oilTwo-wheeler sales did well in 2018, rising 8% d
16、espite weakness in palm oil prices. Palm oil prices have rallied only modestly in 2019. Coal prices, and in particular low calorific coals, have also rebounded from late year lows, but the degree of rebound by itself does not explain the strength of motorcycle sales.Exhibit 22: Indonesian palm oil y
17、oy change Indonesian palm oil future 1st month yoy%Source: BloombergThere were a number of offsets to weak commodity prices, most importantly social assistance spendingThis reporfs statistical work would have us look at lending rates, CPI and social assistance spending as alternative answers for 2-w
18、heeler strength. A decline in lending rates throughout 2017 and 2018, higher coal prices in 2017 (leading to higher activity in 2018), and an increase in social assistance spending would have all worked to offset lower agricultural prices. Social assistance spending, which is a much more efficient w
19、ay of putting money into the pockets of those who need it than subsidies, has been particularly impactful, in our opinion. Social assistance is up 70% yoy in the first two months of the year. Spending on personnel has also had a significant role. This is a much bigger percentage of the federal budge
20、t, almost four times that of social assistance. This can be spent on full-time or part-time workers. This too has been surging in the run-up to the national election. When we average these two categories of government expenditure over three months, the potential impact to lower and middle income Ind
21、onesians is clear.Exhibit 23: Social assistance and personnel spending (3-month average)Social Assistance (LHS)Personnel & Social Assistance (RHS)Source: C日C, HSBCWe think a high level of government spending is unsustainableWe doubt this surge in spending after the election is sustainable. The budge
22、t for social assistance spending is up 26% yoy. Spending on personnel is budgeted to increase just 4% yoy. We find it hard to imagine that activity in areas of the country impacted by coal prices will increase meaningfully in 2019, and palm oil prices have yet to excite us. Economic conditions in th
23、e country are better but we think the sales of 2-wheelers are very likely to slow. We forecast that 2019 sales will nevertheless end the year up 9%, implying mid single digit growth for the remainder of the year. This compares to a forecast by the Indonesian Motorcycles Industry Association of flat
24、growth yoy in 2019. We forecast 2020 sales will rise by 5%.We believe 2019 4-wheeler sales will stage a material recovery and end the year with positive growth compared to 2018.The causes of 4W weakness have been a mysteryNewspapers in Indonesia are replete with articles asking why 4-wheeler sales h
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 印尼 汽车业 引擎盖 之下
限制150内