亚洲电动汽车电池:分岔市场中的赢家和输家.docx
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1、Macquarie Research20 November 2019Global MACQUARIEEQUITIESDisruptiveEdgeCATILG ChernSK InnovationAsia EV batteriesWinners and losers in a bifurcated marketKey pointsRegional divergence in EV sales outlook (China disappoints vs ex China more positive) to be more pronounced in 2020. Korean cell makers
2、 to gain from accelerating EV sales growth in EU; also entering China market, posing a threat to Chinese incumbents. Top sells: CATL (new initiation) and BYD. Top buys: LG Chern and SDLSamsung SDI006400 KSOP240,500360,00050%SK Innovation096770 KSOP160,000210,00031%Panasonic6752 J POP990.41,27529%LG
3、Chem051910 KSOP316,000400,00027%CATL300750 CH UP72.8760.3-17%BYD1211 HKUP3820.7-46%EV battery materialsEcopro BM247540 KSOP51,50077,00050%POSCO Chemical003670 KS OP47,350 70,000 48%lljin materials020150 KS OP38,25048,00025%L&F066970 KS UP21,35015,000-30%EV battery metalsPOSCO005490 KSOP227,500 278,0
4、0022%Western Areas WSA AUOP2.943.622%IndependenceGrounIGOAUOP6.157.420%Pilbara MineralsPLSAUN0.30.327%OrocobreORE AUUP2.632.2-16%SyrahSYR AUUP0.440.35-20%ResourcesSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2019Stock recommendationsCompany ticker Rec CP (LC) TP (LC) Up/Dn EV batteriesSource:
5、Macquarie Research.Share prices at close 18 November 2019InsideCATL (A-Share) (300750 CH)11LG Chem (051910 KS)36AnalystsMacquarie Securities Korea LimitedAnna Park +82 2 3705 8669 住) Daniel Kim +82 2 3705 8641:E 二,彳&、Sonny Lee +82 2 3705 8678 f rW James Hong +82 2 3705 8661二一Macquarie Capital Limite
6、dAllen Yuan +86 21 2412 9009,* Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) LimitedDamian Thong, CFA +81 3 3512 7877 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited( Hayden Bairstow +61 8 9224 0838, Significant regional divergence in 2020: China disappoints, exChina more positiveUnlike in China, where NEV sales of
7、 1.4m units in 2020 on our estimates (vs the governments target of 2m units) are expected to continue to disappoint the market on subsidies cuts (Fig 74), significant fines will induce auto makers to launch new EV models from 2020, accelerating EV sales growth in EU. Based on 2018 CO2 emissions data
8、, auto makers will face multi-billion-euro penalties from 2021 (see Korea EV batteries - What demand slowdown? Look to the EU). Given the new regulation will come into effect on 1 January 2020, we expect EV sales growth in EU to accelerate faster than in China, going ahead; EU sales grew +76% YoY in
9、 Sep 2019, vs the 33% YoY decline in China in September 2019.International companies seeking to enter into China market, posing a threat to Chinese incumbentsLG Chem formed a JV with Geely and signed a sizeable contract with Tesla. SK Innovation built two JVs with BA IC Motor and Eve Energy (300014.
10、 CH, N/R, China*s local battery module/pack maker). LG Chem seeks a stable demand source from partners, while reducing capex burden via JVs (Link 1,2). It appears SK Innovation wants to localise its battery cells by partnering with a Chinese company. LG Chem and SK Innovation plan to increase Chines
11、e battery capacity by 30GWh and 20GWh, respectively, by 2022. Meanwhile, SDI is considering a JV in China, and Panasonic is increasing its Chinese capacity for its JV with Toyota. We believe companies with advanced technology entering China pose a threats to incumbents such as BYD and CATL.Long-term
12、 outlook for China remains positiveDespite the lack of individual demand, demand for EVs in China from non-private sector users such as ride-hailing fleets is rising on better fuel economics (Fig. 13). The push from regulators also helps increase adoption of NEVs. For example, securing a license pla
13、te for a new vehicle could take up to a year in many Chinese cities, but in the case of EVs, license plates are issued along with the vehicle. In the same vein, in Shenzhen, the local government w川 only issue ridehailing licenses to pure electric vehicles from Sep 2019. Our China auto analyst, Allen
14、 Yuan, forecasts Chinas NEV sales growth will accelerate to +17% in 2020, with EVs accounting for 5.1% of all new cars sold in that year.Winners, losersLikely beneficiaries with exposure to EU include LG Chem and SDI. From a longer-term perspective, ifs worth monitoring SK Innovation. We reiterate o
15、ur cautious view on Chinas BYD and initiate CATL (300750 CH, covered by Allen Yuan) with anti-consensus Underperform. Despite long-term growth potential, an imminent re-entry of international battery makers will lead to margin contraction and, in turn, valuation derating, in our view.Please refer to
16、 page 41 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website .Fig 24 Valuation table - battery material suppliersEPS growth (%) ROE (%) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E720.9 6 64.53.6 o5 71/an/an/nmfnmf77.7-4.719.614.3-49.025.97.89.938.227.5-31.662.044.6-4.151.067.8-33.98.913.2
17、n/an/an/a62437 45 &/a n/12 624.93.83.32.73.63.43.21.11.00.92.42.11.92.32.22.03.12.72.10.90.90.8n/an/an/a24.-16.614.326.0-13.521.512.2-49.025.97.8-16.05.98.3-5.5-17.716.0-19.7-4.312.0-58.626.615.524.644.563.14.1-33.929.72 a63.32o3.8 2 9 a 35 4 9 m 8.3.52.398 9 8 79.2.9.5,8.52L9.7.L 8T- T-50.0199.6-25
18、.5-3.81.65.210.211.59.6-8.0159.4176.7-29.68.513.5-10.38.011.8682 0 5 0 84.0.7 8 7220.9,O99.3 94 73.o.47.4-0.111.1n/a57.736.6-16.05.98.313.525.327.6-10.38.011.8-46.165.329.0-24.813.09.698588 74.996.2.92.62.31.61.61.51.11.00.90.80.80.8n/an/an/a0.90.80.70.40.40.43.02.72.30.90.80.80.80.70.61.11.11.01.01
19、.00.91.31.10.90.80.80.70.70.60.61.51.31.23.32.72.20.80.80.83.32.92.60.70.60.63.12.92.70.90.80.8CompanyCodeRecCPTP Mkt CapPER (x)(Ley) (Ley) (US$mn)2019E 2020E 2021ECATHODE-NCM-L&F066970 KS UP 20,80015,000441nmf 25.6 14.4UmicoreUMI BB NR 39.8NA 10,86230.8 25.7 22.5Shanshan600884 CH NR 10.6NA 1,69921.
20、0 16.7 15.5Beijing Easpring300073 CH NR 19.5NA 1,21223.5 17.0 13.3Xiien Tungsten600549 CH NR 12.4NA 2,48951.3 31.7 21.9Ecopro BM247540 KS OP 20,60077,00089727.8 18.4 11.0Sumitomo Metal Mining 5713 JP N3,3703,2009,03213.7 12.6 11.1Nihon Kagaku Sangyo 4094 JP NR 1,051NA199n/a n/a n/aANODE-GRAPHITE POS
21、CO Chemtech 003670 KS OP 46,900 70,0002,45225.1 22.0 17.4Hitachi Chemical4217 JP NR 3,400NA 6,49728.5 23.5 20.9Shanshan600884 CH NR 10.6NA 1,69921.0 16.7 15.5Mitsubishi Chemical 4188 JP NR865NA 11,9408.68.27.5Nippon Carbon5302 JPNR 4,310NA4684.95.95.1Showa Denko4004 JP NR 3,140NA 4,3115.25.44.8JFE H
22、lds5411 JP NR 1,303NA 7,34211.18.87.6 COPPER FOIL-lljin Materials020150 KS OP 38,700 48,0001,53034.6 24.0 14.7Furukawa Electric5801 JP OP 3,060 3,3002,0087.3 11.18.6SEPARATORSK Innovation096770 KS OP 159,500 210,000 12,76818.06.08.1Asahi Kasei3407 JP NR 1,201NA 15,34711.8 11.6 11.0Toray Industries34
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