改革为外国公司创造万亿美元市场.docx
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1、Chinas reforms have opened a US$30.2-trillion opportunity for foreign investment managers. To win in this complex market, foreign firms should develop segment-specific strategies, alternative data capabilities, and partner with online wealth platforms.China: Investment managements next big opportuni
2、tyWith the Chinese government set to eliminate restrictions on foreign ownership of fund management firms in 2020, many investment managers worldwide are eagerly eyeing China as their next big growth opportunity.2 The potential market is vast: By 2023, the countrys total addressable retail financial
3、 wealth is expected to reach US$30.2 trillion, with US$3.4 trillion in retail assets under management (AUM) in Chinese publicly registered funds.3But these market size statisticsenticing as they may bedont guarantee success for any particular firm. The future of investment management in China could
4、largely depend on its prospects for economic growth, the reliability of regulatory reforms, and the spread of cultural changes that accompany individual economic prosperity. Investment managers hoping to expand to China should, therefore, consider a host of marketplace, regulatory, and cultural comp
5、lexities as they establish a foothold and pursue market share. This article explores some of these complexities, aiming to arm investment managementcompany leaders with insights to help them plan for what might lie ahead.Chinas retirement savings dilemmaChinas recent regulatory reforms to encourage
6、foreign firms to enter the investment management market, while perhaps complex, could be due to pensions. The recent relaxation of policies around foreign ownership of investment managers is part of a broader effort by the government to curb a looming retirement savings deficit. Forecasts by the Chi
7、nese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) predict a significant retirement savings gap developing in China over the next 30 years.4 In fact the China pension actuarial report 2019- 2050 estimates that the assets of the government- run Basic Pension System for Enterprise Employees could be depleted by 2
8、035, principally due to an unfavorable shift in the ratio of workers to retirees (figure 1).5Chinas recent regulatory reforms to encourageforeignfirmstoenterthe investment management market could be due to pensions.Firms targeting the cream of mass retail and mass retail segments have an opportunity
9、 to control shelf space and build relationships with hundreds of millions of investors through defined contribution platforms.Partner with established Chinese e-commerce platforms. China has a unique opportunity with the cream of mass retail and mass retail segments, in terms of the number of invest
10、ors, ticket size, and investment preferences. Gaining access to these segments likely requires a low-cost approach. Fortunately, there are several fund distribution platforms in China with the scale and reach required to efficiently provide investment management services to these segments. Because c
11、reating a new, competing platform in China might not be feasible for many investment management firms, investment managers planning to serve these segments should consider seeking placement on these established platforms. The scale of these networks makes possible a favorable combination of customer
12、 acquisition cost, recurring customer revenue, and ongoing account-based costs. Hence, placement on these platforms could be an investment managers best opportunity to tap into the third pillar of retirement savings for Chinese mass retail and cream of mass retail investors.That said, a defined cont
13、ribution platform could be feasible, servicing the same retail segments through the workplace. Since defined contribution platforms are investment-focused and limited in scope compared with e-commerce platforms, an adapted Western platform may be an effective approach to bring this capability to Chi
14、na. Tight coordination with Chinese regulators will likely be key to success in this closely watched, developing retirement savings avenue.Deliver on investors9 risk-and-return portfolio expectations. One success factor addresses the possibility that Chinese investors,who are known to be risk-takers
15、, may benefit from a greater appreciation for professional risk management in investing. Chinese investors may need more and different guidance on determining the appropriate level of risk and the relationship between risk and expected returns. The investment managers most likely to succeed will lik
16、ely be those that support these investors in shaping their behavior to optimize their portfolios for risk and reward.Base investing decisions on alternative data. Meeting Western investors risk and return portfolio expectations is difficult enough. In China, it will likely be even harder, as firms m
17、ust consider factors related to the reform process and the accompanying maturation of both Chinese investors and capital markets. Further complicating the picture, the markets in China are often considered less efficient and transparent than Western markets. And as is widely recognized, macroeconomi
18、c reporting in China is largely directional and indicative, but sometimes lacks precision.19To account for these factors, investment management firms in China should consider building internal capabilities to measure economic and corporate activity in addition to analyzing secondary research. Succes
19、sful managers in China wll likely develop proprietary insights with privately sourced or even proprietary data. Alternative data capabilities to measure consumer, corporate, and macroeconomic activity could thus be more critical than in Western markets. (Firms are leveraging alternative data like sa
20、tellite imagery, freight traffic, and discretionary spending as they try to outperform market benchmarks.)20 Firms that depend on analyses fueled solely withsecondary research and widely reported data are less likely to be successful.robust institutional analysis, investors in these early establishe
21、d portfolios stand to reap theSuccessful managers in China will likely develop proprietary insights with privately sourced or even proprietary data.benefits and lead the way in Chinas nascent, fast-developing capital markets.Investment managers have a unique opportunity to expand their global footpr
22、int into China in the next year or two. Wliile there are undoubtedly many paths to success, all players in ChinasCapitalize on market inefficiency. The first wave of foreign investment managers in China have an opportunity to improve market efficiency by developing mechanisms that create the economi
23、c insights needed to manage portfolios in line with investor expectations. As the markets mature and more trading decisions are backed bycomplex investment management market will need to find innovative ways to understand and serve this complex, growing market. Firms that move boldly with well-formu
24、lated, segment-specific market entry strategies have the chance to capture a lasting advantage.EndnotesAccording to the Deloitte Center for Financial Services China Wealth Forecast Model.1. Nancy Qu, China officially ends foreign ownership limits/* Fund Selector Asia, July 22, 2019.2. According to t
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