美国智库-中伊关系:有限而持久的战略伙伴关系(英)-2021.6(搜搜报告).pdf
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1、 June 28, 2021 Disclaimer: This paper is the product of professional research performed by staff of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and was prepared at the request of the Commission to support its deliberations. Posting of the report to the Commissions website is intended to p
2、romote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.- China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-398 and Public Law 113-291. However, the public release of this document does not necessar
3、ily imply an endorsement by the Commission, any individual Commissioner, or the Commissions other professional staff, of the views or conclusions expressed in this staff research report. Will Green, Former Policy Analyst, Security and Foreign Affairs Taylore Roth, Policy Analyst, Economics and Trade
4、 Acknowledgments: The authors thank John Calabrese and Jon B. Alterman for their helpful insights and reviews of early drafts. Ethan Meick, former Policy Analyst, Security and Foreign Affairs, contributed research to this report. Their assistance does not imply any endorsement of this reports conten
5、ts, and any errors should be attributed solely to the authors. China-Iran Relations: A Limited but Enduring Strategic Partnership 更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o ),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a o U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Table of Contents Key Findings . 3 Introduction. 3 Share
6、d Worldview Augments a Pragmatic Partnership . 4 China Uses Iran to Further Its Geopolitical Ambitions . 5 Chinas Regional Balancing Act Limits Ties with Iran. 7 Iran Sees China as an Important Backer against the United States. 7 Minimizing U.S. Influence in Afghanistan . 8 Chinas Economic Leverage
7、. 9 China Pursues Long-Term Returns, but Hedges on Near-Term Risks . 9 Iran Seeks Foreign Capital . 11 U.S. Sanctions Constrain China-Iran Economic Ties . 12 China Seeks Access to Iranian Oil and Other Natural Resources . 13 China Finances Iranian Transport Infrastructure to Drive Regional Integrati
8、on . 15 A Historic but Constrained Military Relationship . 15 China Proliferates Dangerous Weapons and Technology to Iran . 16 Iran Seeks Chinese Assistance to Compensate for Its Conventional Warfare Deficit . 17 Increasing Ties through Semiregular Contacts, Exercises, and Port Calls . 17 Implicatio
9、ns for the United States . 18 Appendix: Select Chinese Investment Projects in Iran since 2013 . 20 更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o ),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a o U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 3 Key Findings The China-Iran relationship is rooted in limited pragmatic cooperation b
10、ut has evolved in recent years into a partnership more pointedly opposed to the U.S.-led international order. Beijing views Tehrans opposition to the United States as augmenting Chinas increasing global influence, evidenced in part by Irans proliferation of Chinese anti-U.S. disinformation during th
11、e novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The Iranian regimes destabilizing actions in the Middle East also complicate the United States efforts to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific. For its part, Iran views China as a critical economic lifeline and diplomatic supporter against pressure from the Un
12、ited States. A 25-year cooperation agreement signed in March 2021 is the latest indication of the two sides willingness to coordinate more closely. One factor limiting Chinas partnership with Iran is the Chinese governments apprehension over the prospect of armed conflict between Iran and the United
13、 States. Any conflict with Iran could destabilize the energy markets China relies on to fuel its growth. Beijing also benefits from the stabilizing effect of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, which allows China to free-ride on the United States regional security guarantee. Chinas growin
14、g involvement in the broader Middle East places another important limit on Sino-Iranian relations. Over the last two decades, Chinas deepening diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Irans regional adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have forced China to strike
15、 a balance between its relationship with Iran and these emerging partners. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime eagerly seeks Chinese trade and investment but remains wary of becoming overly reliant on China economically. China has sustained its status as Irans top economic partner despite significantly re
16、ducing economic engagement due to its partial compliance with U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, various circumvention methods have allowed China to continue purchasing Iranian oil in violation of these sanctions. As Irans primary oil customer, China provides an economic lifeline to the Iranian regime wh
17、ile deepening its leverage over the country. By also investing in Irans energy infrastructure and regional integration, China seeks to improve its future access to Iranian energy and raw materials. China and Iran maintain modest defense cooperation and share intelligence, reportedly including inform
18、ation that led to the dismantling of much of the U.S. espionage network in both countries. China has supported Irans cruise and ballistic missile programs for decades, including through technology likely utilized in at least one of the missile systems used in Tehrans 2020 attack on U.S. forces in Ir
19、aq. Despite Tehrans interest in procuring advanced weapons from China, Beijing may hesitate to sell the requested arms out of concern over jeopardizing relations with its Gulf partners. Introduction Having suffered years of diplomatic and economic isolation due to international sanctions, Iran has g
20、radually deepened its relationship with China, which has stepped in to become a critical strategic partner for Iran. Economically, China is Irans top trading partner, a leading energy importer, and a top investor. The two countries also have longstanding military ties, consisting of strong cooperati
21、on in the 1980s and 1990s and more modest cooperation today, with semiregular engagements such as high-level military exchanges, exercises, and port calls. Beijing and Tehrans March 2021 25-year cooperation agreement reflects their deepening relationship, which continues to grow as the two countries
22、 strengthen their coordination on issues of mutual interest. Despite their enduring strategic partnership, Beijing has carefully calibrated the growth of bilateral ties in an attempt to balance its other interests in the region. While Tehran has touted the new 25-year cooperation agreement as a mile
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