Chinese Car Market Customer Requirements.pdf
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1、VOLKSWAGEN Group China1VOLKSWAGEN Group ChinaXu JianVice President Strategy&Corporate DevelopmentVolkswagen Group ChinaChinese Car Market&Customer RequirementsAnalyst/Investor ConferenceShanghai,24 May 2006VOLKSWAGEN Group China21.Chinese Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group Chi
2、na31.Chinese Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group China4The Chinese car market will continue to develop towards the sophistication of developed countries1.Continuing stable growthWill become world No.2 by 2010Chinese Car Market2.Proliferation of small/fuel efficient carsA,A0 and
3、 A00 account for 2/3 of total market3.Rate of price erosion declines 10-12%cum.for the next 5 years4.Diesel cars becoming more popularAccounting 10%of total market by 20105.Used car business picking upGrowth rate tripled in line with new car salesChinese Car MarketTrendsVOLKSWAGEN Group China5The Ch
4、inese passenger car market has been growing by over 40%p.a.over the last 5 years.This trend will continue at a lower speedChinese car market sales forecast 1),conservative scenario million unitsSource:CAAM and internal analysisChinese Car MarketContinuing Stable Growth2.61.40.82.3CAGR*=+42%3.33.64.5
5、5.6CAGR=+6%200120022003200420052006E2010E2015E*Compound Annual Growth Rate1)Optimistic scenario:3.8 mio.units in 2006 and 5.0 mio.units in 2010VOLKSWAGEN Group China62082412682903033117148278809549956557588429129099323453834564764881,0211,6431,6011,5341,4161,2401,071298010002000300040005000200520062
6、007200820092010A,A0 and A00 will account for more than 2/3 of the total market.Proliferation of small and fuel-efficient carsForecast only refers to Mainland ChinaChinese Car MarketSegment Development(2005-2010)3,2943,6003,9204,2464,4314,547A00(Mini)A0(Polo)A(Golf)B(Passat)C(Audi A6)D(Phaeton)000 un
7、itsVOLKSWAGEN Group China7Diesel powered cars will grow faster to reach 10%share by 2010Passenger car market structure by fuel type(2005-2010E)%Source:VGC internal analysis,External expert interviews20052007E2010E100%100%100%99%8795%2%03%510%98%PetrolDieselHybrid and alternative technologies1%3.33.9
8、4.5million unitsChinese Car Market Passenger Car Market Structure by Fuel Type IllustrativeVOLKSWAGEN Group China8Passenger car25%20%15%10%5%0123455%3%8%9%12%15%20%1.52.5New consumption tax system imposes higher tax for passenger vehicles with engine above 2.0 litresSources:Ministry of Finance of PR
9、C;VGC internal analysis,External publice information and interviewsNew consumption tax Old consumption taxSUV25%20%15%10%5%0123455%3%9%12%15%20%2.5New consumption tax Old consumption tax1.55%Tax%Tax%Engine size(liter)Engine size(liter)Chinese Car Market New Consumption Tax since April 1,2006 VOLKSWA
10、GEN Group China9Chinas used car market is still in its infancy.We expect stronger growth of over 30%per annum up to 2010Source:Mercer Management Consulting;KPMG estimates,desktop researchGrowth of Chinas used car market (2004-2010)Comparison of total car sales in China and U.S.units:millionunits:000
11、*:Data in 2003Forecast20042006E2007E2009E2010E2008E20054605327801,0801,4501,8152,4006.82010E35%65%48U.S.*75%25%Used carsNew cars 3.87200514%86%ChinaCAGR=+32%Chinese Car Market Development of Used Car MarketVOLKSWAGEN Group China10The sales channels of used cars will change in favor of OEMs dealers a
12、nd independent online platformsDevelopment of used car sales channels Units:millionSpecialized used car markets0.53200580%10%10%2.42010E30%50%20%Online platformsOEMs dealersSource:;dealer survey;desktop researchChinese Car Market Development of Used Car Sales ChannelsVOLKSWAGEN Group China111.Chines
13、e Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group China12Chinese customers are becoming more diversified and individual.More mainstream buyers?From elite to mainstream white collarYounger and more female buyers?Age from 40s to 30s?Female buyers increase from 15%to 25%In search of freshness
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