兼评10月通胀:需防"类滞胀"更需防PPI下行、可跟踪四条线索.docx
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1、内容目录年内CPI高点大概率已过,谨防明年上半年可能的“类滞胀” 3PPI增速续降,高基数及原材料价格放缓是主因,明年PPI大概率低于今年3四条线索跟踪PPI的变化5线索一:跟踪内外需变动情况,尤其是后续我国扩基建的相关举措6线索二:跟踪PPI的领先指标,尤其是CRB工业原料指数和PMI新订单指数7线索三:跟踪油价走势,明年油价大概率难以显著走高8线索四:跟踪我国环保限产力度,已有迹象说明后续大概率会松动9风险提示10表目录图表7:当月环比走势有较强季节性3图表2:猪价对 6的拖累连续第5个月收窄3图表3供给侧改革行业增速的回落是也曾速下行的主因4图表4:供给侧改革行业是物同比增速的主要拉动行
2、业5图表5:户和工业企业利润增速走势趋同6图表6:基建是拉开工业品出厂价格的一大需求6图表7:工业原料指数严格领先也同比1-3个月,今年8月以来已经连续3个月为负7图表8:外新订单指数显示制造业需求已走弱7图表9:工业产成品周转天数同比大幅上升8图表10:原油价格与也同比走势趋同8图表12: 20G年以来原油价格仅有两段时期破百9图表22:供给侧改革行业平均产能利用率提高至万10图表13:空气污染治理效果显现10A. result from B. attend to C. contribute to D. devote to5. Do you expect to be a possibilit
3、y that Palestine and Israel will make a peace agreement after Yasser Arafat died.A. that B. there C. one D. itMost children in Britain are educated at public .A. cost B. priceC. expense D. salaryYou dont like this oil painting, do you? I like it better I look at it.A. Yes, the momentB. No, asC. No,
4、whenD. Yes, the more6. Dr Brown has the habit of the room when he is thinking about something troublesome.A. pacingB. stepping C. walking D. marching7. I,m afraid we 11 have to work extra hours for there are still some problems .A. remaining to settleB. remaining tobe settledC. remained to be settle
5、dD. to remain tosettle8. The newly-founded expedition was lots of trouble, the financial problem is notthe worst.A. up against; of whichB. faced with; whichC. facing; to whichD. up with; among which9. Mum, have you seen my mobile phone? you bought last week? Im afraid I havent seen A. The one; it B.
6、 The one; one C. One; itD.One; one10. The woman was by the business mans offer of marriage and stupidly gave him most of her money.A. taken on B. taken in C. taken off D. taken out11. The house smelled as if it hadnt been lived in for years.A. little white woodenB. little wooden whiteC. white wooden
7、 littleD. wooden white little12. My teacher of English is really very kind. I11 never forget the he has done me.A. favor B. deed C. help D. valueWhat do you think of the five doll mascots for the2008 Olympic Games?, they are lovely, but we cant figure out what they mean easily.A. To tell the truthB.
8、 Im afraidC. UnfortunatelyD. As a matter of fact13. How did your students express their thanks to you onTeachers Day?A gift together with many flowers sent to me .A. isB. are C. was D. were14. from other continents for millions of years, so it has many plants and animals that cannot be found anywher
9、e else in the world.A. Having been separated B. SeparatedC. It has been separatedD. Having separated15. It was until October that they .A. finished their long journey B. paid off the debtsC. reached an agreementC. reached an agreementD. worked on the projectthe oldthe old16. On the top of the hillma
10、n once lived.A. a temple stands there; in which B. a temple standing; on whichC. does a temple stand; whereD. stands a temple;where-Why havent you asked her to come here?一-She an important experiment when I found her and she it.A. had done ; didnt finishB. was doing ; hasntfinishedC. did ; wouldnt f
11、inishD. has done ; hadntfinished17. We had thought the examination would be difficult, but it easy.A. turnedB. resultedC. appearedD. proved18. No one in the department but Tom and I that the director is going to resign. A. knowB. am toknow C. knowsD. have known19. When a giraffe (长颈鹿)has drink, it h
12、as to stand with its front legs wide apart in order to reach water.A. /; / the; /B. a; theD. /; theC.20. - How beautiful the dress looks you! Don t you want , Madam?- Please show me .A. in; one; anotherB. on; it; anotherC. in; it; the otherD. on; one; theother21. If you feel tired and sick of fat fo
13、od, that is you have to go to the hospital for a medical examination.A. whyB. whenC.whichD. what26.26.You should have prepared your speech for the meeting ,Mr. Smith .Yes , I fixed so soon?know .But how could Ithe meeting dateB. asC. afterA. whileD. with27. I wonder what will become of my daughter.
14、endless homework , she also bears other leading loads such as revision and recitation.A. As well as B. With C. Except D. Rather than28. How did you like the of the interpreter at the Chinese FM press conference of 6-party talks on TV?A. performanceB. achievement C. materialD. words29. 1 to your birt
15、hday party last Sunday.Unfortunately, you were out on business.A. had comeB. cameC. wouldcomeDe would have come30. Did he tell you all about the accident?No, I got the feeling that he was something from us.A. keeping offB. keeping backC. keeping outD. keeping up31. , I think, and the problem could b
16、e settled.A. So long as you keep up your spirits B. A bit more effortC. If you doubt your effortsD. Making greateffortsThe man we followed suddenly stopped as if whether hewas going in the right direction.A. seeing seeB. having seenD. to have seenC. to33.The passengers accident happened.33.The passe
17、ngers accident happened.were sent to the nearest hospitaltheA: shortlyA: shortlyB:nearlyC: instantlyD: almost34. Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat belts. The plane . A: takes offB: is takingoffC: has taken offD: took off35. To make members of a team perform better, the trainer first of a
18、ll has to know their and weaknesses.A: strengthsB: benefitsC:techniquesD: values36.A warm thought suddenly came to me36.A warm thought suddenly came to meuse the pocket money to buy some flowers forI might my mothers birthday.A: ifB: whenC: thatD: which37. The ancientstudy you havebeen makingChinese
19、 characters is fascinating.A, to fromB. forD. ofC.38. Since the mid-19805 s, growing numbers of Asians in New Zeahnd, and they about six percent of the totalpopulation.A. had settled; are made up of B. have settled; make up C, settled; make up of D. are settling; make up for一一I caught a student chea
20、ting on the exam.-Perhaps if he had spent as much time studying as he on his clothes, he would have passed!A. did writing B. writingC. hadwrittenD. wrote39. It is not yet well understood has made the rainforest disappear year by year.A. whatB. whichC.thatD. how答案:DDBCB CDABA ABAAA CCDDB DCBBB DAADB
21、BCCBA CDBAAHow did you spend the holidays?1 went nowhere but stay at home. Id like to to the beach, but my mother was ill.A. goB. having goneC. begoingD. have gone1. 1 wonder why Mr Green hasnt showed up at the meetingyet.r m not sure, but he A. could be stuckC. might have been stuck3.The factory pr
22、oduced many to foreign countries.A. themB. which in a traffic jam driving here.B. might stuckD. must have stuck famous cars, none of shippedC. itD. what4. The Indian Ocean tsunami at the end of 2004 is believed more than 160,000 people and made millions homeless, it perhaps the most destroying tsuna
23、mi in history.A. to kill; makingB. to have killed; makingC. having killed; to make D. killing; made5. Is it true the rain stops, it will be as hot as in the summer here?A. whenB. that whenC. whenever D.thatMike, as far as I know, like to play music.A. seemsB. appearsC. feelsD.does, Jack couldnt get
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