新业务价值增速有望复苏估值较低.docx
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1、重点图表资料来源:公司资料、(香港):注:冲国平安由207例:开始采用/开处鸟隹那么:*:平安数据为2020三季度年化营运月OE|图1: 2020年三季度主要寿险公司业绩情况|中国平安(2318 HK),新华保险(1336 HK)中国人寿(2628 HK)中国太保(2601 HK)股东净利润同比增速-20.50%14.60%18.40%14.30%ROE (非年化*20.90%12.36%11.43%10.40%股东全面收益同比增速-40.20%-17.30%-44.20%27.60%代理人柔道表现并销员人数增速(年初至今)-10.2%n.a.-2.0%n.a.营销员渠道期交百年保熨同比地速n
2、.a.4.8%n.a.34.2%寿险新业务价值同比增速n.a.n.a.2.70%n.a.净投资收益率(年化)4.50%n.a.4.47%4.60%总投资收益率(年化)5.20%5.60%5.36%5.50%图2:累计寿险总保费增速资料来源:万得、(乔港)图3:中国平安代理人渠道寿险首年保费图4:中国健康险累计总保费资料来源:万得、(香港)资料来源:公司资料、(香港)利润表财务预测表:中国人寿(2628 HK )资产负债表12月31日年姑(百万元人尻币)201820192020E2021E2022E12月31日年结(百万元人民币)201820192020E2021E2022E物业、厂历及设备47
3、,28151,75854,34659,78068,748心承保保费及保单费收入535,826567.086631.574696,700765,283投资性为地产9.74712,14114,85716.54718,540净保费收入和保单猜用532,023560,278625.258689,733757,631联昔企业和合营企业投资201.661222,983234,592261.269292,743投资收益87,298161,001188J82208,339232,772债权金融资产1.391,3111,684,2921,855.8612,071,897其他收入8.0988.0988,7659.
4、0289.299股权金融侪产424,656605.996664,677783.807902,624收入总款627,419729,474822,206907.100999.702定期存款559.341535.260547.381598.741658,671保证金存款6.3336.3336.3336.3336.333保险给付和赔偿(479,219)(509.467)(555.446) (615,693)(673,165)保单贷款450,251608,920664,677740,262829.438投资合同支出(9.332)(9.157)(10,073)(11.0801(12,188)买入返华金呦资
5、产款项9.9054.46729,32432,65936,593利金及产续费支出(62,705)(81,396)(113.368) (122,489)(140.594)应收校资收益48.40241,70361,58765,50175,615管理费用(37,486)(40.275)(41,081)(45,189)(49.707)应收保,15,64817,28131,10632.66135,927共他费用(8739)(10,765)(15,670)(17,237)(18,961)建他所得梗资产1.257128141155170保户红利支出(19,646)(22.375)(29,014)(31,915
6、)(35,107)再保险资产4.3645.1615.4195.6905.975急福利索赔和费用合计(617,127)(673,435)(764.651) (843,603)(929,723)其他资产33.43737,54939,42641,39843,468现金及现金等价物W.3UbX)34U2.UU3bZNUb府占联营企业和台普企业损的77458.0119.2999.76410,252J,Ng 卢 05q,ux&u 却财务费用(4.116)(4.255)(4.324)(4,232)(4,270)税前利淘13,92159,79562,52969,02975,961保险合同负惜2.216,031
7、2.552,7362.927,0413.313,9903.779,411所补税圻用(1.985)(781)(6,878)(7.593)(8,356)投资合同255,434267,804289,228303,690318,874年度净利海11,93659,01455,65161.43667,605计息贷款及其它借故20.15020.04520.04520.04520,045归属于I微馥飙掷且共攵动计入那么2.6803.8592.7012.8362.978母公司拮有人11,01157,89354,32660,14366,119衍力金融伤体1.8770000突出国明证券192,141118,0887
8、0.85374.39578,115主要财务比率201820192020E2021E2022E1预收傀圻46,65060,89824.35925.57726,856打服源利(人民币)0.42.0192.12.3应付借券034,99034.99134,99134,991每股帐面价值(人民币)11.014.015.216.618.2应付年金及具他保险类始付49,46551.01955,10159.50964,269年股新业务价值(人民币厂1.82.12.12.32.5法定保障保修燧金558602783783783肉版内含价值(人民币).28.133.338.744.751.4其他负债58,42684
9、.205115,271127,347139,053股本回报率.()3.516.513.013.413.4当期所得税员债2.630223178178178新业务价值按年增长-17.6%18.6%0.3%11.8%9.2%递延所得税负债010.3307.2317.2317.231新业务价值利润率28.9% 32.4% 29.9%30.8%31.0%负债总额2.931,1133,317.3924,585,345资料来源:公司资料、(香港)预测:注.:我们的假设基股本28,26528,26528,26528,26528,265于基本情形其他权益工具7,7917,791000姑任及留存收益282,315
10、367,708401.Q07441,392485,859股东权益318,371403764429,272469,657514.124权益总靛323,290409,342435.974477,651523,605现金流量表12月31日年结(百万元人民所)201820192020E2021E2022E I住营活动产生的现金流入净额147,552286,032231.371239,986298.911投资活动产生的现金流入净额(238.373)(247.515)(147,0721(215,131)(272.207)筹资活动产生的现金流入净额92.963(36,075)181,725)(21,795)
11、(23,550)汇率变动影晌815561450现金及现金等价物的净增加2,2232,4972,6M3.0633,205现金及现金等价物的年末余额50,809S3.30655.94059,00362,2082021年1月27日(星期三)2021年1月27日(星期三)财务预测表:中国太保(2601 HK)利润表 资产负债表12月31日年结(人民币百万元)201820192020E2021E2022E 1物业、厂房及设名19,30119,36517,42919,17121,088投资物业8.5428.2838.1349.24010,459曲誉及其他无形资产3,8994.3294.9785,6016.
12、301于联营企业和台外企业的投资17,47220.44220.44220.44220,442债权金融烧产(不包含定期存款、法定 保证金及保单质押贷款)840,516930,1591.025,8651.166,3001,321,009股权金融资产143,946205,854255,800294,600343,430定期存就128.396147.756190.553220,437244,314法定保证金67386,6586.6586,6586,658保单质押贷款49,19457,19461,68170,07179,313买入贩件金融资产款项23.09528,04523,39121.37922,11
13、9利息及保险应收账款38,29442,74964,12473,74284,803但付上地租衍砍项3440000用延所得桎资产2,3798601,0751.3441,680再保险费产23,46725,56029,39433,06837,202其他资产15,05316,20723,61326.81129.732现金及现金等价物15,32314,87224,51727,85131,524总贲产1,335,9591,528,3331,757,6531,996,7162,260,075保除合同负债919,6711.068,0211.225,6601.406,4241,609,595投资会同负债62255
14、75,50687,587100725115,834卖出回物金融资产款75,07578,366113,631131,812147,629庖付保单红利26,50125,44724,17525,38326,653预收保分16.38421,0007,3508.0858.894应付分保赃款6,2334.5437,95087459,620庖付债券13.9859.9889.98810.08810,189其他负健53,30858.68263,3776971476.686当期所汨税负债7,3315493,9404,5315,211递延所得税负fifi1.1682.9113.0573.3623.698负债总El1
15、.181,9111,546,7141,768,8702.014,007股本9.0629.0629.6209.6209.620储藏及时存收筱140,514169,365195.813212.106229.716般东权益149,576178,427205.433221,727239,336权益总酸154,048183,320210,939227,846246,06812月31日年结(人民币百万元)201820192020E2021E2022E 1物业、厂房及设名19,30119,36517,42919,17121,088投资物业8.5428.2838.1349.24010,459曲誉及其他无形资产
16、3,8994.3294.9785,6016.301于联营企业和台外企业的投资17,47220.44220.44220.44220,442债权金融烧产(不包含定期存款、法定 保证金及保单质押贷款)840,516930,1591.025,8651.166,3001,321,009股权金融资产143,946205,854255,800294,600343,430定期存就128.396147.756190.553220,437244,314法定保证金67386,6586.6586,6586,658保单质押贷款49,19457,19461,68170,07179,313买入贩件金融资产款项23.0952
17、8,04523,39121.37922,119利息及保险应收账款38,29442,74964,12473,74284,803但付上地租衍砍项3440000用延所得桎资产2,3798601,0751.3441,680再保险费产23,46725,56029,39433,06837,202其他资产15,05316,20723,61326.81129.732现金及现金等价物15,32314,87224,51727,85131,524总贲产1,335,9591,528,3331,757,6531,996,7162,260,075保除合同负债919,6711.068,0211.225,6601.406,4
18、241,609,595投资会同负债6225575,50687,587100725115,834卖出回物金融资产款75,07578,366113,631131,812147,629庖付保单红利26,50125,44724,17525,38326,653预收保分16.38421,0007,3508.0858.894应付分保赃款6,2334.5437,95087459,620庖付债券13.9859.9889.98810.08810,189其他负健53,30858.68263,3776971476.686当期所汨税负债7,3315493,9404,5315,211递延所得税负fifi1.1682.91
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