(6.1.1)--Made_in_America_again.pdf
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1、Made in America,AgainWhy Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S.The Boston Consulting Group(BCG)is a global management consulting firm and the worlds leading advisor on business strategy.We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identify their highest-value opportunities,address their most
2、 critical challenges,and transform their businesses.Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization.This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advan-tage,build more capable o
3、rganizations,and secure lasting results.Founded in 1963,BCG is a private company with 74 offices in 42 countries.For more information,please visit .Made in America,AgainWhy Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S.Harold L.Sirkin,Michael Zinser,and Douglas HohnerAugust 2011Made in America,Again2Chinas o
4、verwhelming manufacturing cost advantage over the U.S.is shrinking fast.Within five years,a Boston Consulting Group analysis concludes,rising Chinese wages,higher U.S.productivity,a weaker dollar,and other factors will virtually close the cost gap between the U.S.and China for many goods consumed in
5、 North America.LOOK AT TOTAL COSTSCompanies should undertake a rigorous,product-by-product analysis of their global supply networks that fully accounts for total costs,rather than just factory wages.For many products sold in North America,the U.S.will become a more attractive manufacturing option.RE
6、ASSESS YOUR CHINA STRATEGYFor many products that have a high labor content and are destined for Asian markets,manufacturing in China will remain the best choice because of technologi-cal leadership or economies of scale.But China should no longer be treated as the default option.AT A GLANCEThe Bosto
7、n Consulting Group3For more than a decade,deciding where to build a manufacturing plant to supply the world was simple for many companies.With its seemingly limitless supply of low-cost labor and an enormous,rapidly developing domestic market,an artificially low currency,and significant government i
8、ncentives to attract foreign investment,China was the clear choice.Now,however,a combination of economic forces is fast eroding Chinas cost advan-tage as an export platform for the North American market.Meanwhile,the U.S.,with an increasingly flexible workforce and a resilient corporate sector,is be
9、coming more attractive as a place to manufacture many goods consumed on this continent.An analysis by The Boston Consulting Group concludes that,by sometime around 2015for many goods destined for North American consumersmanufacturing in some parts of the U.S.will be just as economical as manufacturi
10、ng in China.The key reasons for this shift include the following:Wage and benefit increases of 15 to 20 percent per year at the average Chinese factory will slash Chinas labor-cost advantage over low-cost states in the U.S.,from 55 percent today to 39 percent in 2015,when adjusted for the higher pro
11、ductivity of U.S.workers.Because labor accounts for a small portion of a products manufacturing costs,the savings gained from outsourcing to China will drop to single digits for many products.For many goods,when transportation,duties,supply chain risks,industrial real estate,and other costs are full
12、y accounted for,the cost savings of manufacturing in China rather than in some U.S.states will become minimal within the next five years.Automation and other measures to improve productivity in China wont be enough to preserve the countrys cost advantage.Indeed,they will undercut the primary attract
13、ion of outsourcing to Chinaaccess to low-cost labor.Given rising income levels in China and the rest of developing Asia,demand for goods in the region will increase rapidly.Multinational companies are likely to devote more of their capacity in China to serving the domestic Chinese as well as the lar
14、ger Asian market,and to bring some production work for the North American market back to the U.S.Manufacturing of some goods will shift from China to nations with lower labor costs,such as Vietnam,Indonesia,and Mexico.But these nations ability to Made in America,Again4absorb the higher-end manufactu
15、ring that would otherwise go to China will be limited by inadequate infrastructure,skilled workers,scale,and domestic supply networks,as well as by political and intellectual property risks.Low worker productivity,corruption,and the risk to personal safety are added concerns in some countries.This r
16、eallocation of global manufacturing is in its very early phases.It will vary dramatically from industry to industry,depending on labor content,transportation costs,Chinas competitive strengths,and the strategic needs of individual compa-nies.But we believe that it will become more pronounced over th
17、e next five years,especially as companies face decisions about where to add future capacity.While China will remain an important manufacturing platform for Asia and Europe,the U.S.will become increasingly attractive for the production of many goods sold to consumers in North America.This report,the
18、first in a series,examines the economic trends that point to a U.S.manufacturing renaissance.It also explores the strategic implications of the shifting cost equation for companies engaged in global sourcing.The U.S.“Decline”and Renaissance in Perspective The death of American manufacturing has been
19、 foretold many times in the past four decades.As the only major industrialized nation not leveled by World War II,the U.S.accounted for around 40 percent of the worlds manufactured goods in the early 1950s.But then,fueled by a relentless wave of imports from a reconstructed Europe and eventually fro
20、m Japan,the U.S.experienced a dramatic loss of market share in industries such as color TVs,steel,cars,and computer chips.In the 1970s and 1980s,fears of the loss of U.S.industrial competitiveness were particularly acute,prompting a widespread debate over whether the nation should adopt a“Japan Inc.
21、”-style industrial policy and teach its schoolchildren to speak Japanese.Then came the rise of such East Asian Tigers as South Korea and Taiwan,which led to a massive transfer of production of labor-intensive goods,including apparel,shoes,and toys,and then of much of the U.S.computer and consumer-el
22、ectronics manufacturing industry.The U.S.suffered through many painful adjustments to these challenges.Unlike most nations,however,it quickly ripped off the Band-Aid and allowed industry to adapt.Factories closed,companies failed,banks wrote off losses,and workers had to learn new skills.But U.S.ind
23、ustry and the economy responded with surprising flexibility and speed to reemerge more competitive and productive than ever.By the late 1990s,American companies dominated the world in high-value industries such as microprocessors,aerospace,networking equipment,software,and pharma-ceuticals.Manufactu
24、ring investment,output,and employment surged.It may not be obvious yet,but the U.S.manufacturing sector is today in the midst of a similar process of readjustment in response to perhaps its greatest competitive threat everthe rise of China.Since opening its doors to foreign investment and trade,Chin
25、a has offered a virtually unbeatable combination of seemingly limitless cheap labor(less than$1 per hour),a growing pool of engineers,a fixed currency,The reallocation of global manufacturing will become more pronounced over the next five years,especially as compa-nies face decisions about where to
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