荷兰智库-中国对荷兰未来海上物流枢纽功能的影响探讨(英)-2022.10-20正式版.pdf
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1、Navigating an uncertainfutureAn exploration of Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub functionBart Kuipers,Liam van Son,Frans-Paul van der Putten,Xiaoxue Martin,Sanne Zwart,Erik Krijgsman,Daan AbrahamsStudy conducted on behalf of:Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Manage
2、ment&Ministry of Foreign AffairsNavigating an uncertain futureAn exploration of Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub functionBart Kuipers Liam van Son Frans-Paul van der Putten Xiaoxue Martin Sanne Zwart Erik Krijgsman Daan AbrahamsClingendael ReportOctober 2022October 2
3、022 Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.Cover photo:Map of the Belt and Road Initiative Clingendael&LeidenAsiaCentreThe research for and production of this report has been conducted within the framework agreement for the Chinese Knowledge Network(CKN).The aim of the CKN is t
4、o promote strategic knowledge development about China for the national government of the Netherlands.Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed,rests solely with the authors and does not constitute,nor should be construed as,an endorsement by the secretariat of the Chinese Knowle
5、dge Network and/or the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.This report was written in the period from November 2021 to May 2022 by the Erasmus Centre for Urban,Port and Transport Economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam and the Clingendael
6、China Centre.It was compiled on the basis of insights from a large number of stakeholders and under direct guidance from the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.The authors of this report bear full responsibility for its content and for any errors or inaccuracies.Information on this repo
7、rt can be obtained from Bart Kuipers(bkuipersese.eur.nl)and Xiaoxue Martin(xmartinclingendael.org).Information in this report may be used provided the source is acknowledged.About the Clingendael InstituteThe Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael is a leading think tank and ac
8、ademy on international affairs.Through our analyses,training and public platform activities we aim to inspire and equip governments,businesses,and civil society to contribute to a secure,sustainable and just world.About Erasmus UPTErasmus Center for Urban,Port and Transport Economics is an independe
9、nt expertise center founded by Erasmus University Rotterdam.It is our mission to help current and future leaders in port and logistics,city and region and urban mobility to make better decisions.We do this through high-quality research and education.Our experts develop thought leadership by connecti
10、ng high-quality academic research and in-depth knowledge of the international practice in which we operate.The Clingendael Institute Erasmus UPTP.O.Box 93080 P.O.Box 17382509 AB The Hague 3000 DR RotterdamThe Netherlands The NetherlandsFollow us on social media Follow us on social media clingendaelo
11、rg ErasmusUPT The Clingendael Institute ErasmusUPT The Clingendael Institute clingendael_institute Email:upt.officeese.eur.nl Clingendael Institute Website:www.eur.nl/uptEmail:infoclingendael.orgWebsite:www.clingendael.orgAbout the authorsBart Kuipers PhD is a senior researcher port economics at Era
12、smus UPT.In particular freight transport and especially containerisation is one of his areas of expertise.He indicates the importance of the container for the Dutch economy and in particular the future economic impact of freight transport and containers.An important component are scenario studies of
13、 possible future developments of national and international seaports.Liam van Son is a junior researcher at Erasmus UPT.His recent research investigated the governance of socio-economic development programs specific to transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic.At Erasmus UPT,he is active in var
14、ious research projects in the field of port economics,most notably pertaining to sustainable development.Frans-Paul van der Putten PhD is a Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute.His area of expertise is the geopolitical role of China.He is the author of De Wederopstanding van China:
15、Van prooi tot wereldmacht(The Resurrection of China:A geopolitical history of China from 1840).After leaving his position as Senior Research Fellow in 2022,he started his own business as an independent expert on China and geopolitics.Xiaoxue Martin is a Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute.H
16、er work focuses on the contemporary politics and international relations of China,in particular Hong Kong and Taiwan affairs,and dependence on China.Sanne Zwart is Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.Erik Krijgsman is Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.Daan Abrahams is Resea
17、rch Assistant at the Clingendael Institute.1PrefaceThe title of this report is Navigating an uncertain future a title that is regularly given to scenario studies,by Shell among others.The subtitle of this report is:“An exploration of Chinas influence on the future Dutch maritime logistics hub functi
18、on”.This subtitle indicates the subject matter of this scenario study.We nevertheless also wish to highlight the great uncertainty of the present situation.The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a shift in the world order,only a short time after the coronavirus pandemic that also brought unprece
19、dented changes,not least due to Chinas maintenance of lockdowns in the major seaports.The war in Ukraine will have a lasting weakening effect on the New Silk Road rail link between China and Europe.But Chinas assertive response to Nancy Pelosis visit to Taiwan also makes an outcome we did not consid
20、er an ultimate invasion of Taiwan by China more credible.Such a development has not been included in the scenarios developed in this report,simply because it was not as credible a year ago.Scenarios are generally closely related to the period in which they are developed.These developments have furth
21、er increased the uncertainty about the future and once again highlighted the impact of geopolitics among the major powers.Central to this report is the production of scenarios to explore Chinas influence on the Netherlands future maritime logistics hub function.This influence relates particularly to
22、 the Netherlands central position and strategic autonomy as a maritime logistics hub.A key output of this study is a set of possible actions the Dutch government and the maritime logistics sector could take to anticipate the potential role that China could play in logistics in Europe and hence also
23、in the Netherlands.The future of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)or the Global Development Initiative(GDI)as it is now styled,but whose precise impact remains unclear is likely to be strongly affected by Russias attack on Ukraine and by Chinas response to developments surrounding Taiwan.Future r
24、elations between China and Russia are therefore very important for the global geopolitical situation,naturally alongside the relationship between China and the United States.These relationships are undergoing major change.The scenario analysis in this report seeks to take account of recent factors a
25、s far as possible while taking stock of the uncertainties.By basing the study on these uncertainties,it has been possible to conduct a thorough scenario analysis with support from those involved.The Erasmus Center for Urban,Port and Transport Economics and the Clingendael China Centre conducted this
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