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1、ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGYEnergy is Key.Now October 22,2001This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey&Company.This material was used by
2、 McKinsey&Company during an oral presentation;it is not a complete record of the discussion.txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?1txho/11022 ho0402 color.pp
3、tLONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,AND GETTING MORE SONote:Number of exits averaged over twenty year periodSource:McKinsey analysis19351955197519952005EThe S&P 500 is a brutal,unemotional yardstick of performanceThe pace of change is acceleratingImplied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in ye
4、ars 2txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptMARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERMOverall performance of S&P 500 would have been if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957about 20%less per year 3txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptHISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DAT
5、ABASE(PDB)PDB overviewEnergy sectorsFinancial data(60 items)for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*Industry Number of companiesAirlines 23Commodity Chemicals36Specialty Chemicals47Defense 28Medical Supplies66Software171Paper 47Pharmaceuticals 101Soap 24Transportation 25Semicon
6、ductors55Utilities104Oil170Telecommunications 55IndustriesInteresting dynamics to analyze More than 10 players with 50%of sales in the relevant SIC category Companies U.S.-basedBelonged to a predetermined SIC code Obtained at least 50%of their sales from specified SIC code(“pure-play”)Had a market c
7、ap within the top 80%of all market cap values Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and pure play criteria for the last 2 yearsCompanies were removed only when they merged,got acquired or went bankrupt Selection criteria Total Energy subtotal 2741,067Computer hardware73Network 42*
8、Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companiesSource:McKinseys long-term performance database 4txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSource:McKinsey performance databaseACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED OUTPERFORMANCE.Economy normal rangePharmaceuticalsDefenceTel
9、ecomToiletries7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Select industries vs.economy5txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSource:McKinsey performance database.IN FACT,MANY INDUSTRIES RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORMAirlinesPaperCommodity ChemicalsSpecialty Chemicals7-year rolling normalized total retur
10、n to shareholders:Select industries vs.economyEconomy normal range6txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptIF YOURE A SURVIVOR,YOUVE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET*Companies that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995Source:McKinsey analysis,McKinsey corporate performanc
11、e database7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Long-term survivors vs.economyEconomy normal range(90%confidence band)Economy return Economy survivors*7txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptOUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM ATTACKERS*Three year rolling average 1962-95Source:McKinsey analysis;McKinsey
12、corporate performance databaseYears in sampleTRS relative to industry average15101520-10%-5%0%5%10%15%25Survivors Survivors cursecurseTotal return to shareholders relative to industry of“new entrants”into top 80%by market cap*Attackers Attackers advantageadvantage.becomesbecomes8txho/11022 ho0402 co
13、lor.pptSURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CREATE,INNOVATE,AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGHThe survivors mental model focuses on protecting the core businessSurvivors are paralyzed by fear ofProduct cannibalizationCustomer conflictDilutive acquisitionSurvivors suffer from cultural lock-inSalesTimeVis
14、ion,ideas,passionInability to innovateFocus on operationsDenialDenialRationalityRationalityCreation and Creation and innovationinnovation9txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptStock price CAGR 44%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#2 online broker with 20%of total online retail brokerage market accountsLaunches online tradingSc
15、hwab assembles secret development teamCREATING OPTIONS:CANNIBALIZING DIRECT CHANNELS AT SCHWABOnline trading becomes core businessSource:Literature search,company reports,Bloomberg,McKinsey analysisPercent change in stock price since Jan 92SchwabS&P 500S&P Finance10txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSource:
16、Datastream,company reports,Literature searchDivested paper,rubberAcquired mobile phone manufacturerDivested cable and machine divisionsDivested powerDivested cable machinery and Nokia tiresDivested televisions,chemicals and cablesStock price CAGR 63%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#1 world market share of cell pho
17、nes(32%)Divested data operationsDESTROYING:NOKIA FROM CONGLOMERATE TO WORLDS LARGEST PHONE MANUFACTURERPercent change in stock price since Jan 90NokiaS&P 50011txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can
18、Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?12txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptAs expected in a regulated industry,utilities closely track the general economyOil was hit hard in the 80s,but has been steadily recoveringPETROLEUM AND UTILITIES VS.THE ECONOMYUtilitiesOil7-year rolling average of normalized TRS13
19、txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptIn the long run,none of the player classes delivers significant returns beyond the economy as a wholeHowever,returns for Independents and OFSEs appear to be more sensitive to oil price swingsPETROLEUM PLAYER CLASS PERFORMANCE VS.THE S&P 500MajorsIndependentsOFSEs7-year rol
20、ling average of normalized TRS14txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptINNOVATION IN ENERGYEnronDynegyEl PasoKinder MorganCompany Business model,technologyAcquisition,business modelAcquisition,business modelAcquisition,business modelDrivers Cultural revolution at a gas pipeline company that has redefined commod
21、ity tradingMid-80s low tech start-up significantly more successful than the dot-comsWith a high quality management team,its possible to grow significantly through M&APulling the financial restructuring lever hard to release the value in capital-heavy assetsActivity 15txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptRELIA
22、NT TRANSFORMATION OF A REGULATED UTILITYLocal utilityNew business model experimentation1882-1995Founded as utility to service local Houston marketEntered and exited utility fuels businessEntered cable TV(1986)Acquired interests in South America(1992)1995-2000Entered IPP marketPlants in California,In
23、diaEntered power and gas trading(Currently#4 in gas,#3 in power)Invested in telecommunications and e-commerce(REI Communications,GuideS)Exited South American operations and Cable TV2000-Created two distinct businessesRegulated distributionUnregulated wholesale power and gasSource:Hoovers;analyst rep
24、orts;press releasesBusiness separation16txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTHE REINVENTION OF BPPortfolio pruningBusiness model innovationAttacking through consolidation1985-92Divested noncore lines of businessNutrition(BP Nutrition)Computing Services(Scicon)Coal(BP Coal)Minerals(Selection Trust)Acquired st
25、rategic core assetsSohioBritoil1992-98Performance-driven business unitsPeer group/collaborative performance managementOutsourced noncore functions(accounting,IT)1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma CastrolVeba17txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptINNOVATION IN THE OIL INDUSTRYHalliburtonAnadarkoSchlumbergerCore LabsComp
26、any Acquisition,technologyAcquisition,technology,business model destructionAcquisition,technologyAcquisition,business modelDrivers Cement company creating the one-stop shop for the oil patchEx-pipeline subsidiary leveraging distinctive exploration and acquisition to create valuePioneer in oilfield t
27、echnology playing smart inside and outside of the oil patchSpun-off subsidiary exploiting proven technologies to drive revenue growthActivity 18txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to l
28、ead innovation in Energy?19txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptCAN HOUSTON BUILD AN INNOVATION NETWORK?The value of the network is clear:Increased cross pollination of ideasSpecialized talent flowBetter flow of smart capital Challenging,but supportive environmentIncrease and growth in software companiesChall
29、enging competition among peersSupporting infrastructureDemanding,participative customersTalented,entrepreneurial employeesElements of Silicon Valleys self-reinforcing network20txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptWHAT ROLE CAN LEADERS TAKE TO INCREASE FOCUS ON HOUSTON?Public energy policyGovernment fundingTalentNew companies21txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptWHAT AVENUES CAN LEADERS EXPLOIT TO DRIVE HOUSTONS INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL?HoustonTechnologyCenterCorporateR&DLocaluniversitiesGovernment researchIndustryconsortia22txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
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