SC 213 SLATE OUR ENERGY FUTURE Week Two Fossil FuelsSC 213板岩我们能源的未来两周的化石燃料.ppt
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1、SC 213 SLATE:OUR ENERGY FUTUREWeek Two:Fossil FuelsJohn Bush October 14,2005SOME QUESTIONSDoes humanity face an energy crisis?NO!Then what is the nature of the“crisis”?1)The availability of energy in a form that is consistent with sustaining the current American lifestyle(which has become the desire
2、d lifestyle of the World)appears to be rapidly diminishing.2)The continuance and spread of the American lifestyle arguably will make the Earth a very uncertain and unpleasant place to live.WHAT DO I MEAN BY“THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE”?Dispersed location of housing,work&services Primacy of individualized
3、 personal transportRelatively low cost,flexible distribution of goods and servicesProductive agriculture achieved with high energy input and low labor.Adequate,reliable access to low cost utilities:water,fuel,communication,electricityTHE OIL&GAS SHOCK We Americans will have to deal with a crisis bro
4、ught on by the decreasing availability to us of particular forms of fossil fuels.At first we may respond to the shock as we did to the 1973“Oil Shock”THE 1973 OIL SHOCK:CONSEQUENCES&RESPONSESInflation:rapid rise in costs of heating/cooling,transportation,food,materials,services.Panic buying in respo
5、nse to wild swings in availability/cost of oil and gas Emphasis on behavior resulting in efficient use of oil and gas:reduction of energy input per unit of GDPEnormous build-up of energy r&d and demonstration programsAltering of behavior to decrease consumption of goods and services,especially those
6、 with high dependence on oil and gas leading to stagflation or economic depression?THE OIL&GAS SHOCK:NEAR TERM POLICY OBJECTIVES?Secure access to proven oil&gas reservesSecure delivery systems for crude oil&gasEnhance domestic infrastructure for processing oil&gasStimulate the development of domesti
7、c oil&gasImplement the means to cushion economic dislocations resulting from swings in the availability/cost of oil&gasStimulate the development and implementation of technologies that result in efficient use of oil&gasEncourage the use of coal-generated electricity in applications now dependent on
8、oil&gas,subject to a carbon dioxide constraintEncourage rd&e to create acceptable alternatives to oil&gas Energy ResearchFor comparison,the European Union is completing a$1 billion program on renewable energy to end in 2006,and expects double that afterwards to 2010.In 2005,the US will spend$1 billi
9、on,but mostly at national labs(DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado),but university funding is“bleak”.Stanford has a Global Climate and Energy Project(GCEP)of$225 million over ten years from industry.Fossil Fuel Future SummaryOil,Natural Gas,Shale Oil,and Coal produce CO2.Carbon sequ
10、estration requires an extra 30%of power and needs research.FutureGen$1 billion research plant.Oil is needed for transportation fuelToo expensive for electricity generation Total world reserve of oil is a large question,uses politically motivated estimates of individual countries and industry secrets
11、Reserves:About 50 years with growth in use2/3 is in the Middle EastCoal may last 100 years with growth in usage,but only 70 years if partly converted to replace oilCurrent rate of use of fossil fuels will increase worldwideTHE OIL&GAS SHOCK:NEAR TERM POLICY OBJECTIVES?Secure access to proven oil&gas
12、 reservesSecure delivery systems for crude oil&gasEnhance domestic infrastructure for processing oil&gasStimulate the development of domestic oil&gasImplement the means to cushion economic dislocations resulting from swings in the availability/cost of oil&gasStimulate the development and implementat
13、ion of technologies that result in efficient use of oil&gasEncourage the use of coal-generated electricity in applications now dependent on oil&gas,subject to a carbon dioxide constraintEncourage rd&e to create acceptable alternatives to oil&gas DIALOGIf these objectives are met what will it mean fo
14、r the oil&gas crisis?America will have a bridge into a post-oil&gas era(POGE).How long do we have?What will provide the energy needed to maintain the American lifestyle in the POGE?That is what our Slate will try to answer.DIALOG(CONTINUED)If these objectives are met what will it mean for the global
15、 climate?The rate of carbon dioxide addition will be decreased but the World will be irrevocably committed to some consequences of global warming.The severity of the consequences will depend on what happens elsewhere in the World.What if we conclude that in the time frame of the POGE bridge adequate
16、 replacements for oil&gas cannot be established?Then the American lifestyle cannot be maintained and we will have to think the unthinkable.FOSSIL FUELSPetroleumTerrestrial Natural GasCoalBitumen(“Tar Sands”)Kerogen(“Oil Shale”)Seabed Methane(Methane Hydrate)WHY OIL&GAS?Huge,industrial scale quantiti
17、es occurAccessible with proven technologyReasonable costReliable supplyRelatively clean burningRelatively lower carbon dioxide productionWe have built a huge infrastructure that is dependent on oil and gasWHY NOT OIL&GAS?Economists argue that there will always be plenty of oil and gas if we are will
18、ing to pay for itGeologists argue that there is a finite global resource of the“good”kind of oil&gas that has made the American lifestyle possibleAt issue:when will the production peaks of the“good”kind of oil and the“good”kind of natural gas be reached?ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF OIL?Historically observa
19、tions about oil supplies have not been very reliable1855:“Hurry before this wonderful product is depleted”1874:“The US has enough petroleum to keep its kerosene lamps burning for only four years”1979:“The US will exhaust its own petroleum reserves in about 10 years”2005:“World oil discoveries peaked
20、 in the 1960s.You cant pump what you havent found.Where will that additional oil production come from and at what price?”World Oil Growth and Decline-Pessimistic 2 Trillion Barrels Total RecoverableOptimistic 3Trillion Barrels Total Recoverable:US Geological SurveyPeaking of World Oil ProductionHirs
21、ch Report:Feb.2005THE CRITICAL QUESTIONSHow long does America have until the“good”fossil fuel becomes too scarce and costly to support the“American Lifestyle”?How much carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuel can the Earth accommodate until the consequences for the“American Lifestyle”become
22、 intolerable?SOME POSSIBLE VIEWPOINTSOilAt or past the peak of world productionGood for another 30-50 yearsThere will always be plentyGasNon-domestic sources are too riskyGood for another 50-75 years but the peak will come soonerThere will always be plentyGlobal WarmingIt is too late to stop itthing
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