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1、NPLs of Chinese State-owned Banks:Current Status,Origins and Disposal MethodsM.Chen,C.Jia and X.XuGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University11Overview of Chinas Banking SectorBrief historyBefore 1979:PBC1979-84:Establishment of four SOCBs1986-:Establishment of joint-stock banks2001-:City Commerc
2、ial BanksMarket share by assets(Q3,2004)SCOBs:54.1%Joint-stock banks:14.6%22NPLs of Four SOCBs 33NPLs of Four SOCBs44NPLs of Four SOCBs55Origins of NPLsPolicy loansSOEs versus private sectorHigh level of debt of Chinese companiesInterest rate controlLow base rate;lower than USA,India and KoreaLow sp
3、read between the deposit and lending ratesLaeven and Majnoni(2003):in 2000,China:3.6%and average of 106 countries:6.67%Poor management and moral hazard66YearStockissueLoangrowthStockissue/Loangrowth1993314.546335.404.961994138.057216.621.911995118.869339.821.271996341.5210683.333.201997933.8210712.4
4、78.721998803.5711490.946.991999897.3910846.368.2720001541.0213346.6111.5520011182.1312439.419.50CapitalsRaisedbyChineseCompanies 772002779.7518979.204.112003823.1027702.302.97Datasource:88Reasons for the Decrease in NPLs ratioIncrease in total amount of loansIn 2003,the net increase was RMB 2,770 bi
5、llions(24%total loans between 1991-2003)Decrease in NPLsCapital injection by governmentTransfer of NPLs to AMCsIn Q2 of 2003,NPLs increased by RMB 18.3 billion after taking into account of NPLs transfersChange in maturity structure of loans991010Methods of NPL DisposalCapital injection by government
6、Establishment of AMCsFinancing of AMCsMethods of asset disposalAuctionEquity-debt swapAsset backed securitiesIncreasingly more difficultDirect disposal by four SOCBs1111NPLDisposalbytheAMCs(Asofend-Q3,2004)AMCsNPLdisposedCashrecoveryrate(%)Huarong1745.627.3520.34GreatWall1832.415.6410.56Orient966.82
7、9.9121.89Cinda1331.439.1533.20AMCsoverall5876.226.79%20.46%(Source:PBC,CBRC)Asset recovery rate%1212NPLs and Financial Stability of ChinaNPLs continue to emerge in large amountThenewNPLsinthenextthreeyearswillbebetweenRMB600billionto1,050billion(Zhong,2004).Liberalization of banking sectorCapital injection by government is becoming more limitedRapid increase in government debt1313Concluding RemarksVery limited successCritical in the next few yearsGoing public may help but does not solve the fundamental problems1414
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