Ethiopian Power Sector Development Plan埃塞俄比亚电力公司介绍.ppt
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1、Power system planning office November 20101HIGHLIGHTS ON POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTS ON POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMPROGRAM (2010TO 2015 G.C)(2010TO 2015 G.C)2Background Rapid and sustainable economic growth is the key objective of the Ethiopian economic policy.Achieving the goal of rapi
2、d and sustainable economic growth requires rapid and sustainable development of key sectors like power,road etc.The power sector is at an infant stage&is required to grow as fast as possible to cope with the intended rapid economic growth.The interconnected System(ICS)generation capacity has grown s
3、ignificantly in recent years due to the addition of Tikeze,Gibe II and Beles.The system has total installed capacity of 1947 MW,and an average energy generation capability of 6571 GWh/year.All of this capacity is not available to supply the electricity demand due to constraints in the transmission a
4、nd distribution systems.In the fiscal year 2010 the constrained generation has reached to 4013GWh.Due to the huge effort exerted on the grid based rural electrification,the figure for electricity access reached to 41%of the population from the 17%figure back in 2005.Per-capita energy generation has
5、reached to 82kwh.(500Kwh is considered the average minimum level of consumption per-capita for reasonable quality of life).3Background.This level of consumption per-capita(500Kwh)corresponds to annual electricity consumption of 40000GWh based on current population and it is about six times higher th
6、an the current electricity generation.There is significant generation resource in a regional context(especially hydro power)beyond own requirement in the near future and to be developed for power export.Ethiopias hydropower resources,which are distributed in nine major river basins and their innumer
7、able tributaries are estimated to generate 650 Terra Watt Hour/yr(CESEN1986).The technically feasible potential is estimated to be 40%of the theoretical potential i.e.260 TWh/yr(45GW equivalent with 65%plant factor).This would constitute about 15%of the total technically feasible potential of Africa
8、,which is 1750TWH/yr(International journal on hydropower&dams,2006).In addition there is an estimated geothermal potential of about 5000MW.Also there are Wind power,Solar,Coal and Natural gas potentials to be harnessed for electric power generation.The lowest level of electricity access and per capi
9、ta consumption in itself justifies the fast development of the countries generation resources.4Background.Regional interconnection initiatives(EAPP,ENPT etc)are on the verge of implementation with assurance of short term potential market for power export.At this point there is a general consensus th
10、at there is local and potential regional demand to absorb the capacity of future generation projects in Ethiopia.To recognize potential regional demand as actual however requires the signing of power purchase agreement in view of facilitating the financing of major projects from international financ
11、ing institutions.Finance and execution capacity are considered to be the only setbacks for development of the power sector,not the power market.The execution capacity of the corporation in all process areas is expected to be improved through implementation of the corporate transformation program.5Ba
12、ckground.So with in the above noted contexts,a power sector development plan could be prepared with the objective of meeting the national demand as priority while at the same time availing surplus power for export from a list of generation projects studied to pre feasibility/feasibility level,as dem
13、and is not considered an issue of contention.However,judiciously prepared national demand forecast is always necessary for better understanding and effective management of the power sector,especially with in the framework of regional power trading.Also realistic demand forecast is a crucial basis fo
14、r transmission planning where you dont need surplus capacity.6In the last three decades,several studies have been carried out to define Ethiopias energy potential and to develop appropriate investment programs for the power sector.Negligible portion of the estimated potential is harnessed.On June 19
15、99 EEPCO has engaged International consultancy firm to undertake a power system Expansion Master Plan Study(EPSEMP)in a 25 years planning horizon.The plan for the first 10 years was detailed to be adopted as sector development program,whereas the plan for the remaining 15 years was indicative to pro
16、vide long term insight for decision makers.EEPCO has revised the EPSEMP and prepared the Ethiopian Power Systems Expansion Master Plan Update(EPSEMPU)in April 2004 and June 2006,taking in to account all the major changes that have occurred in the country and with in EEPCO since the formulation of th
17、e Master plan(EPSEMP).Background.7Since the update of the 2006 master plan,the study level of new hydro projects is advanced,additional regional interconnection studies are completed,construction of new hydro project has commenced,and still more are committed,under study or site identification.The E
18、thiopian government has given its highest priority to the development of the power sector so that it steers the planned transition to the industry led economy.Therefore an update of the generation and transmission expansion program that was recommended in the 2006 Master plan is required to accommod
19、ate these latest developments.Background.8 POWER DEMAND FORECAST9oFor the target scenario the annual GDP growth rate is assumed to be 15%as put in the target of the Growth and Transformation plan(GTP)of the country.This results into 32%annual electricity energy demand growth.oFor the Moderate I scen
20、ario a five year historic average of 11%GDP growth is assumed.Based on the above elasticity figure this translates to a 24%annual energy demand growth.oFor the Moderate II scenario a 13%annual GDP growth rate,which is median between the two growth rates is assumed.The corresponding annual energy dem
21、and growth will then become 28%.Three electric demand forecast scenarios were developed,namely the Traget,Moderate I and Moderate II scenarios.From the historical total energy generation figure and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)data demand elasticity is determined to be 2.15.The following assumptions w
22、ere taken for the growth rates of the independent variable(GDP)in the development of the Target,Moderate I and Moderate II scenarios:Forecast Methodology and Assumptions10Generation requirement&Peak Load Forecast Methodology and Assumptions ctd oThe forecasts are first prepared as energy generation
23、forecast.oThe Energy Generation figure thus is converted to Peak demand value using three years average load factor of 57%.11 Target,Moderate I and Moderate II forecastYearEnergy(GWH)20102011201220132014201502,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000EnergyDemandforecastResultTargetMode
24、rateIModerateIINational Demand forecast results12Moderate IModerate IITargetEnergyPeakEnergyPeakEnergyPeakYear(GWh)(MW)(GWh)(MW)(GWh)(MW)20024,5358594,5358594,53585920035,5781,1175,8051,1635,9861,19920046,8611,3747,4301,4887,9021,58320058,4391,6909,5111,90510,4302,089200610,3802,07912,1742,43813,768
25、2,757200712,7672,55715,5823,12118,1743,6401313Projected system need(2015)need(2015)Moderate I demand forecast(11%GDP Growth)Moderate I demand forecast(11%GDP Growth)Energy:Energy:1276712767 GWh GWh Capacity Capacity:25572557 MW MW Moderate II demand forecast (13%GDP Growth)Moderate II demand forecas
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