2019年汽车科技报告-GP.Bullhound-2019.2-40页.pdf.pdf
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1、The Mother Of All Tech BattlesAUTOTECHImportant disclosures appear at the back of this reportGP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRASubscribe to receive GP Bullhound Research and News on in TechnologyFebruary 20193AUTOTEC
2、H01 THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND03 CHAPTER 1: A TIME OF UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE09 CHAPTER 2: THE GROWING INFLUENCE AND POWER OF TECH PLAYERS17 EXPERT VIEW Christian Herrmann, Daimler15 CHAPTER 3: AUTOTECH INVESTMENTS GROWING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH27 CHAPTER 4: FOUR KEY TRENDS IN AUTOTECH30 EXPERT VIEW
3、 Alain Tiquet, Nvidia36 EXPERT VIEW Martin Anderlind, Northvolt43 EXPERT VIEW Stan Boland, FiveAI49 EXPERT VIEW Magnus Olsson, Careem56 EXPERT VIEW Dieter May, BMW58 CHAPTER 5: Future Battlefronts61 EXPERT VIEW Darren Jobling, Zerolight63 EXPERT VIEW Timo Buetefisch, Cooltra65 EXPERT VIEW Lewis Horn
4、e, Uniti58 CHAPTER 6: JOCKEYING FOR POSITION71 METHODOLOGYCONTENTS5AUTOTECHSven Raeymaekers PartnerGuillaume Bonneton PartnerEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFrom the moment that Karl Benz built the first petrol-powered internal combustion engine automobile in Mannheim in 1885, car culture has relentlessly spread a
5、cross the globe. Its impact has been nothing less than extraordinary: Das Auto has transformed global economies, shaped entire societies and tested the limits of engineering time and time again.It is unquestionably one of the most important inventions in history. As it stands today, if the industry
6、were an economy, it would be among the ten largest on earth.More than 100 years after the petrol- powered car passed go for the first time - and despite worldwide sales at a record high in 2018 - stress fractures are starting to appear. Tesla is on track to outsell both BMW and Mercedes-Benz in the
7、US, car sales in China are declining for the first time in decades, and several global automakers have issued profit warnings in recent months.Indeed, the multi-trillion-dollar industry is facing unprecedented change across a number of fronts, including: Social: urbanisation and changing trends in c
8、ar ownership Political: regulation and pollution levels Technological: autonomous driving, electrification and connectivityOver the next 10-15 years, four trends are set to converge and potentially change the industry forever. They are: Electrification, autonomous driving, shared mobility, and conne
9、cted experiences.Car makers are, consequently, confronted with a myriad of challenges, particularly in relation to design and manufacturing, alongside changes to the business model and customer relationships.In this new world, profits are expected to be redirected to areas where car makers lack prio
10、r knowledge and experience, while investment needs to be routed towards technology that in many cases remains untested.As a result, we will undoubtedly see the emergence of new and powerful players in the mobility ecosystem.Its common to compare the trials and tribulations of automotive with those o
11、f the mobile device industry, where value has shifted from hardware to software and ecosystems and, ultimately, has led to the demise of several global giants.In this fast-moving world, one thing is for sure: auto industry leaders have no desire to see history repeat itself.THE VIEW From GP Bullhoun
12、d4A TIME OF Unprecedented Change7AUTOTECHCHAPTER 16MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS Are Impacting The Automotive IndustrySources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, 1. Insee, 2015Impacted by a number of macro-environmental factors, the multi-trillion-dollar auto industry is facing unprecedented change,
13、 with a number of social, political and technological drivers shifting and altering how businesses will perform for years to come.SocialWith people continuing to value the concept of sustainable living and embracing a pay-per-use and sharing economy, car ownership continues to fall in cities around
14、the world, despite the worlds urban population growing from 52% in 2010 to 55% today. Adding in time lost in seemingly endless traffic jams, ever-increasing parking costs, and the availability of various alternative modes of transport, including bikes, scooters and mopeds, its perhaps not surprising
15、 to see only 36% of Parisian households owning a car in 2015, compared to 80% across France as a whole. PoliticalIncreasingly concerned with the wellbeing and protection of vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users, and equally applying to new standards in vehicle safety equipment as well as the o
16、peration of new mobility services, central and local authorities are calling for more stringent regulation to increase road safety. At the same time, pressure to limit the environmental impact of road transport is mounting, as illustrated by the introduction of emission targets, ICE bans, and subsid
17、ies for electrified vehicles. As vehicles progressively turn into data centres on wheels, more rigid rules are being called for around privacy data protection.TechnologicalOver the past few years, weve experienced tremendous progress in terms of enabling technologies, providing a foundation for the
18、advent of connected, autonomous, shared, and electric driving platforms. These technologies include advances in artificial intelligence, computer vision, and sheer computational power, as well as connectivity (bandwidth is set to increase hugely following the roll-out of 5G), fast evolving energy st
19、orage efficiency, and material management (such as 3D printing for instance). 1617181920-2425-2930-3440-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970100%50%0%Licensed drivers35-39Age19832014Millennials vs parentsProportion of age groups owning a drivers license (USA)-19%35-3920-249AUTOTECH8CHAPTER 1WHAT ARE THE KEY
20、 Tech DisruptionsDISRUPTION HAS COME LATE But Will Have Lasting EffectsHeld back in part by the progress in foundational technologies, and in comparison with eCommerce and digital media, disruption of the automotive industry has taken much longer to arrive. Indeed, recent progress in key enablers, s
21、uch as artificial intelligence, computer vision, broadband mobile connectivity and energy management have paved the way for Autotech to really flourish. Smartphone penetration for one, has been instrumental in the widespread adoption of the industrys so called killer app: ride hailing. At the same t
22、ime, capital investment for Electrification, Autonomy and Shared Mobility start-ups tend to be significant, and required a sufficiently mature venture industry to be able to finance daring bets in these spaces. After a slow start, Electrification, Autonomy, Shared Mobility and Connectivity are set t
23、o converge over the next 10-15 years and profoundly change the automotive industry in its wake, effecting lasting changes on product design, supply chain management, manufacturing, distribution, business models, sales and marketing.The key questions those in the industry will need to answer going fo
24、rward are: How will value be distributed? Who will own the customer relationship?Sources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, http:/www.umich.edu/ Despite seeing global sales of new electric vehicles quadruple between 2014 and 2017, the absolute share of plug-ins remains remarkably small. Compelled
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