韩国智库报告:美中海上冲突情景假设和影响分析(英)-2023.2.pdf
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1、between the United States and China at SeaConflict ScenariosEdited by KIMSUnited StatesChinaKoreaJapanTaiwanSoutheast Asian countries更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oThank you,Olivia,for your valuable contribution in correcting the book.Your help is greatly appreciated!更多
2、细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oCONTENTS12345Introduction:The Utility of Scenarios and the Implications of the U.S.-China Conflict at SeaConflict Scenarios between the United States and China in the South China Sea Structure and Contingency:War Onset in the East China Sea
3、Contested Scenarios in the Yellow Sea:U.S.-China Maritime ClashesConclusion:Wargaming and Policy Making:The Benefits of Studying China-U.S.Conflict at Sea Scenarios07194379109Sanghoon KimKorea Institute for Maritime StrategyKetian ZhangGeorge Mason UniversityPaul van Hooft;Tim Sweijs;Stella KimThe H
4、ague Centre for Strategic StudiesTerence RoehrigUS Naval War CollegeCAPT Wade Turvold,USN(Ret)Daniel K.Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security StudiesKIMS Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oForewordConflict Scenarios of the U.S.-China Co
5、nflict at SeaOver the past several years,the U.S.-China strategic competition has been intensifying,with the maritime domain emerging as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition.Chinese domination of Chinas near-seas regionmeaning the South China Sea(SCS),the East China Sea(ECS),the Taiwan Strai
6、t,and the West Seacould cause great harm to the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region,which accounts for about 60 percent of the worlds maritime trade.Unlike conflicts on land that are less likely to occur but can quickly escalate into full-scale warfare,maritime conflicts tend to be limite
7、d warfare but more frequent.This book addresses the conflict scenarios of the U.S.-China conflicts at sea and their implications.It is both timely and relevant,if not urgent.I am confident that readers from both Korea and overseas will find this book extremely helpful in understanding the importance
8、 of maritime security.The Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy(KIMS)is a private non-profit think tank,founded upon the principle of raising awareness of the importance of the sea,contributing to the development of sound maritime policy and ultimately working towards a more secure and peaceful worl
9、d.For this purpose,the institute seeks to identify and analyze some of the latest and pressing issues pertaining to the maritime domain.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oThis book is a testimony of very close teamwork between renowned experts in Europe and the U.S.I am tha
10、nkful to Mr.Sanghoon Kim for the introduction and summary of the chapters.Words cannot sufficiently express my gratitude to the chapter contributors each of whom provides breath-taking knowledge,thus helping the readers understand what is happening now and what might be expected in the conflict scen
11、arios between the United States and China at sea.In the order of the book chapter,I hereby acknowledge Dr.Terence Roehrig,Dr.Paul van Hooft,Dr.Tim Sweijs,Ms.Stella Kim,Dr.Ketian Zhang,and Mr.Wade Turvold.I am also grateful to Ms.Olivia Truesdale for editing and proofreading this book.Chung,Eui-SungC
12、hairmanKorea Institute for Maritime Strategy更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oConflict Scenarios between the United States and China at SeaConflict Scenarios between the United States and China at Sea更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oIntroduction
13、:The Utility of Scenarios and the Implications of the U.S.-China Conflict at SeaSanghoon KimAssociate Researcher,Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy01KIMS Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a oKIMSConflict Scenarios between the United Sta
14、tes and China at Sea更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a o9Introduction:The Utility of Scenarios and the Implications of the U.S.-China Conflict at Sea01KIMSIntroduction:The Utility of Scenarios and the Implications of the U.S.-China Conflict at SeaSanghoon KimAssociate Resear
15、cher,Korea Institute for Maritime StrategyAbout the ReportThis policy report consists of three chapters that discuss conflict scenarios between the United States and China at sea.The three chapters represent three maritime domains:the South China Sea,the East China Sea and the West Sea.The utility o
16、f scenario-based research extends beyond practical values.The informed scenarios,or narrative approximations of potential future conflicts,also assist scholars with“developing testable hypotheses,gathering data,and identifying a theorys upper and lower bounds.”1 For security practitioners,this polic
17、y report can be used in many ways.First,it can be used as a basis for conducting wargames.A wargame is,broadly defined,a simulation of a future warfare situation.The military conducts regular joint and combined exercises which are essentially wargames that are intended to increase military preparedn
18、ess and coordination through table-top exercises,command post exercises(CPX)or field training exercises 1Timothy J.Junio and Thomas G.Mahnken,“Conceiving of Future War:The Promise of Scenario Analysis for International Relations,”International Studies Review 15(2013),374.01更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告(s o s o y
19、a n b a o),行研君胃:s o s o b a o g a o10Conflict Scenarios between the United States and China at SeaKIMS(FTX).The scenarios explored in this volume not only encompass the United States and China,but also Korea,Japan,Taiwan,and Southeast Asian countries,depending on the maritime domain and the conflict
20、.For instance,in an East China Sea scenario,Japan is likely to be one of the main actors involved in a dispute over the Senkaku(Diaoyu)Islands.As such,the conflict scenarios laid out in this policy report can be used by practitioners in many countries tailored to their own security environment.The p
21、olicy implications included in every chapter guide practitioners into considering different pathways toward war.The debate on the causes of war remains unresolved and will remain so,due to the nature of individuals,society,and the state.Different levels of analysis all provide plausible explanations
22、 to the causes of war.Indeed,it is the combination of a multitude of factors that drive decision makers to rely on the last resort of war as a means to achieving a political end.Even today,in an age of globalization where economic interdependence,nuclear deterrence,and multilateralism generally prev
23、ail against war,the Russian invasion of Ukraine proved that war remains a viable instrument of foreign policy.Finally,this relatively novel approach bridges the gap between academia and policy.2 As noted above,scenarios can contribute to the conduct of war games in the military establishment.It can
24、be understood as a division of labor among practitioners and academics,where analysts with the knowledge of broad trends in international security establish the realistic boundaries of imagination while practitioners,who have the resources and the necessary tools,engage in preparations for the unima
25、ginable.Already,scholars are incorporating scenario-based research and wargames as useful tools of analysis.3 2Eyal Hanfling,“Reviving war-game scholarship at MIT,”MIT News,March 21,2022.3Aaron Hale,“Game on,”UGA Today,April 22,2013;Sebastian J.Bae,“Establishing a Wargaming Insurgency at the Univers
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