国际事务研究院-打破陈规?多极世界中货币多元化的探索(英)-2023-WN6.pdf
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1、 2023 IAIISSN 2532-6570IAI COMMENTARIES 23|28-JUNE 20231Nicola Bilotta is an associate fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali(IAI).He is the coordinator of the EU-SDFA&Research Associate at the European University Institute.“Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade o
2、n the dollar.Why cant we do trade based on our own currencies?Who was it that decided that the dollar was the currency after the disappearance of the gold standard?”(Lula,Shanghai,13 April 2023)During a recent speech at the New Development Bank,Brazils President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva questioned w
3、hy all countries have to rely on the US dollar for trade and suggested using their own currencies instead.1 Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine,Lulas statement has been part of a chorus rather than an isolated voice.Emmanuel Macron has also urged the EU to reduce its dependence“extraterritoria
4、lity of the U.S.dollar”,2 while several countries,1 Joe Leahy and Hudson Lockett,“Brazils Lula Calls for End the Dollar Trade Dominance”,in Financial Times,13 April 2023,https:/ Jamil Anderlini and Clea Caulcutt,“Europe Must Resist Pressure to Become Americas ranging from Argentina to Saudi Arabia,a
5、re promoting the Chinese yuan to be used for trade settlements with China.In this framework,US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has warned about the risk of financial sanctions linked to the dollar undermining its hegemony.3Nothing new on the financial system frontNothing new,one may say.Despi
6、te the erosion of the US dollar having been predicted,challenged,envisioned and discussed for the last two decades,the greenback has continued to remain the dominant currency in the international financial system.Why might this time be different,though?Followers,Says Macron”,in Politico,9 April 2023
7、,https:/www.politico.eu/?p=2889354.3 AFP,“Yellen Says Sanctions May Risk Hegemony of US Dollar”,in Barrons,16 April 2023,https:/ the Mold?The Quest for Currency Diversification in a Multipolar World by Nicola Bilotta2Breaking the Mold?The Quest for Currency Diversification in a Multipolar World 2023
8、 IAIISSN 2532-6570IAI COMMENTARIES 23|28-JUNE 2023Although previous efforts to lessen reliance on the US dollar were unsuccessful,the convergence of geopolitical tensions,economic dislocation and digital transformation may create an ideal environment for a gradual fragmentation of the global monetar
9、y system in the long run.4According to a recent article in The Economist,the 25 largest“non-aligned”countries those that have not imposed sanctions on Russia or wish to remain neutral in the Sino-American conflict represent 45 per cent of the global population and have seen their share of global GDP
10、 increase from 11 per cent in the 1990s to 18 per cent today,surpassing that of the EU.5 Although these countries hold significant economic power,their diverse national interests make it unlikely for them to act as a cohesive unit.However,they may find common ground on specific issues,as evidenced b
11、y OPECs recent decision to reduce oil production despite Western opposition.6Another area where they might be incentivised to find common ground is in reducing global reliance on the US dollar and the Western-dominated 4 See:Nicola Bilotta and Fabrizio Botti(eds),Digitalisation and Geopolitics.Catal
12、ytic Forces in the(Future)International Monetary System,Rome,Nuova Cultura,2023,https:/www.iai.it/en/node/16701.5“Can the West Win Over the Rest?”in The Economist,13 April 2023,https:/ Maha El Dahan and Ahmed Rasheed,“OPEC+Announces Surprise Oil Output Cuts”,in Reuters,3 April 2023,https:/ system.In
13、 the past two decades,the US has significantly increased the use of economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy.Since the year 2000,the number of sanctions imposed by the US has skyrocketed by 933 per cent.7 This trend has prompted many countries around the world to seek alternative means of cond
14、ucting international transactions,free from the risk of being targeted by US sanctions.Petrodollars:Signs of fragmentation?The global market for oil trading provides a notable example of the exceptional status of the US dollar.Since the early 1970s,major oil-producing countries,especially those in O
15、PEC,have exclusively priced oil in dollars.However,recent developments suggest small-scale efforts to move away from the dollar in this domain.In December 2022,China made an invitation to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to settle their bilateral oil-trade transactions in yuan.Similarly,India a
16、nd Russia are currently renegotiating to establish rupee-ruble arrangements for settling their oil-trade transactions,driven by the impact of Western sanctions.Countries like Russia,Iran and Venezuela,which collectively hold 40 per cent of the OPEC+proven oil reserves,have strategic incentives to co
17、nsider switching to yuan-denominated oil.8 7 US Department of the Treasury,Treasury Sanctions Review 2021,October 2021,p.2,https:/home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Treasury-2021-sanctions-review.pdf.8 Rana Foroohar,“A New World Energy Order Is Taking Shape”,in Financial Times,3 January 3Breaking th
18、e Mold?The Quest for Currency Diversification in a Multipolar World 2023 IAIISSN 2532-6570IAI COMMENTARIES 23|28-JUNE 2023Moreover,an additional 40 per cent of proven oil reserves belong to the Gulf Cooperation Council whose members,while historically close to the US,have been more assertive in voic
19、ing their own stance on important regional and global issues.9The potential effect should not be overestimated,though.For instance,even if all Chinas oil imports were denominated in yuan,it would only account for 1520 per cent of the future global contracts.10 However,it is a prominent example of a
20、broader megatrend in which countries are seeking alternatives to the US dollar in their trade arrangements.In another development,the Peoples Bank of China recently announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding(MoU)to establish Chinese yuan clearing arrangements with the Banco Central do Br
21、asil.11 Furthermore,Brazil and Argentina have initiated improbable discussions about developing a common currency,indicating their interest in closer 2023,https:/ Danielle Pletka,“The Qatarization of the Middle East”,in Foreign Policy,4 May 2022,https:/ M.Feierstein,Bilal Y.Saab and Karen E.Young,“U
22、S-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads:Time for a Recalibration”,in MEI Policy Memo,April 2022,https:/www.mei.edu/node/84155.10 Ingvild Borgen and Kelly Chen,“Crude Indicators for Dollars Dominance”,in Financial Times,3 April 2023,https:/ Says It Will Set up Yuan Clearing Arrangements in Brazil”,in Reut
23、ers,7 February 2023,https:/ integration.12 Of greater significance,the BRICS countries have announced their intention to engage in discussions regarding the launch of a new currency during the upcoming August summit.13Digitalisation and diversificationWhile these examples may not encompass large-sca
24、le agreements,they highlight growing trends of shifting away from the exclusive reliance on the US dollar in trade agreements,indicating increasing interest in diversifying currency options.14 Although no alternatives to the US dollar currently exist,digitalisation processes have the potential to ea
25、se and accelerate such ambitions in the long-run.The possible implementation of Central Bank Digital Currencies(CBDCs)15 worldwide may decrease the costs associated with cross-border transactions and establish a new international payment infrastructure.If 12“Argentina and Brazil Propose a Bizarre Co
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