2024年1月美联储经济褐皮书-美联储(英).doc
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1、The Beige BookSummary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve DistrictJanuary 2024F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E MiContentsAbout This PublicationiiNational Summary1Federal Reserve Bank of Boston5Federal Reserve Bank of New York8Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia12Fed
2、eral Reserve Bank of Cleveland16Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond20Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta24Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago28Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis31Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis34Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City38Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas42Federal Reserve Bank of San
3、 Francisco46iiAbout This PublicationWhat is the Beige Book?The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and pros-pects based on a variety of mostly qualitative informati
4、on, gathered directly from each Districts sources. Reports are published eight times per year.What is the purpose of the Beige Book?The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic conditions since the last report. Outreach for the Beige Book is one of many ways the Federal Reserve
5、System engages with businesses and other organizations about economic developments in their communities. Because this information is collected from a wide range of contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods, the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information gath-ering.
6、 The Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.How is the information collected?Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires com-pl
7、eted by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts, and other sources. Contacts are not selected at random; rather, Banks strive to curate a diverse set of sources that can provide accurate and objective information about a broad range of economic activities. The Beige Book serv
8、es as a regular summary of this information for the public.How is the information used?The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used by Federal Reserve econo-mists and staff to assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. The qualitative nature of the Beige Boo
9、k creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data. This infor-Note: The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city. In the 12th District, the Seattle Branc
10、h serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marian
11、a Islands. The Board of Governors revised the branch boundaries of the System in February 1996.iiiThe Beige Bookmation enables comparison of economic conditions in different parts of the country, which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.The Beige Book does not have the
12、 type of information Im looking for. What other information is available?The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, house-holds, and community organizations. A list of statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available here, links to eac
13、h of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here, and a sum-mary of the Systems community outreach is available here. In addition, Fed Listens events have been held around the country to hear about how monetary policy affects peoples daily lives and livelihoods. The System also relies on a variety
14、of advisory councilswhose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses, non-profit organizations, and community groupsto hear diverse perspectives on the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.1National SummaryOverall Economic ActivityA majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts rep
15、orted little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holi-days by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceed
16、ing expectations in three Districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods. In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from ecommerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia. Several Districts noted increased leisure tr
17、avel, and a tourism contact described New York City as bustling. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was c
18、ited by numerous con-tacts in various sectors as a source of optimism. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty. Overall, most Districts indicated that expectations of their firms for fut
19、ure growth were positive, had improved, or both.Labor MarketsSeven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while the pace of job growth was described as modest to moderate in four Districts. Two Districts continued to note a tight labor market, and several described
20、 hiring challenges for firms seeking specialty skills, such as auto mechanics or experienced engineers in the Boston and San Francisco Districts, respectively. However, nearly all Districts cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market, such as larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more
21、selective hiring by firms, and easing wage pressures. The pace of wage growth was characterized as moderate in Boston, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas; as modest in New York and Philadelphia; and as slight in St. Louis. Firms from many Districts expected wage pressures to ease and wage growth to fall
22、further over the next year.Note: This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on information collected on or before January 8, 2024. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Feder
23、al Reserve officials.2The Beige BookPricesSix Districts noted that their contacts had reported slight or modest price increases, and two noted moderate increases. Five Districts also noted that overall price increases had subsided to some degree from the prior period, while three others indicated no
24、 significant shift in price pres-sures. Firms in most Districts cited examples of steady or falling input prices, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and more discounting by auto dealers. Districts also noted that increased consumer price sensitivity had forced retailers to nar
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