全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察-2022.3.25-92正式版.pdf
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1、Economic ResearchMarch 25, 2022Global Data Watch Data flow shows US, Asia strength and Europe resilience but drags from inflation spike, rising interest rates are building Drags weigh on sentiment but are not generating financial stress Next week: March data show US payroll surge and China PMI slide
2、 The punch bowl punches backOur outlook theme that “this time is different” focuses on the reflationary con-sequences of strong underlying demand supports and rapidly tightening supply. A key consequence of this dynamicthat central banks will be under pressure to quickly normalize policy stancesis n
3、ow in train. Indeed, this weeks Fed-speak suggests it may get to neutral even faster than the path of nine consecutive 25bp hikes we have been projecting. But something else is unfolding that is very different, as commodity and financial markets respond to a more hawkish Fed and the Russian invasion
4、 of Ukraine. The global economy regularly has been buffeted by geopolitical events that limit commodity supply, but the last three decades have not produced an episode in which a substantial commodity price spike has been accompanied by broad-based core price pressures (Figure 1). As a result, the F
5、ed and other central banks with anchored inflation expecta-tions refrained from responding to these shocks. They no longer have this luxu-ry, especially given their current highly accommodative stances. As markets price higher inflation risk and larger monetary policy responses, the accompany-ing re
6、cent jump in bond yields is unlike the past two Fed rate normalization cycles (Figure 2) and is unusual in the face of a global risk-off environment.We have already lowered our 2022 global GDP growth forecast (Q4/Q4) by 1%-pt on the back of these shocks, but near-term growth risks remain skewed to t
7、he downside. Energy prices and interest rates are already above our 2Q22 forecasts and threaten to move significantly higher. An abrupt shut-off of Russian energy exports to Europe remains an acute concern, as it would likely throw the continent into recession. Recognizing this risk, this week the E
8、uro-pean Council empowered governments to take steps to protect consumers, but did not agree that limits on Russian energy imports should be introduced this year. Fiscal cushions are already being implemented: on the heels of earlier announcements in Sweden and the UK, Germany delivered a second sup
9、port package this week, which takes its total to around 0.6% of GDP.We are also mindful of the risks that elevated inflation, rising interest rates, -2024693980308131823% change over 6 months, saar Figure 1: DM CPI Source: National sources, J.P. MorganCore Headline -1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5t-6mtt+6
10、mt+12m t+18m t+24m%-pt changeSource: JPM Global EconomicsFigure 2: US 10y yield around Fed tighteningFeb 94Jun 04Dec 15Mar 22t=start of Fed hike cycleJun 99ContentsGlobal financial conditions tighten, but not yet stressed12Assessing the impact of Chinas housing market policies16Geopolitical shifts c
11、ould end Japans disinflation20Exposure to Russia-Ukraine: Focus on select frontiers24Mexicos tough policy trade-off1Egypt FX reserves: The volatility behind the curtain4Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Econom
12、ics9J.P. Morgan Market Watch10Data WatchesUnited States6Euro area14Japan18Canada22Mexico24Brazil26Argentina28Andeans30United Kingdom32Sweden and Norway35Emerging Europe37South Africa & SSA40Australia and New Zealand42China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan44Korea46ASEAN48India52Regional Data Calendars54Bruce K
13、asman(1-212) 834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAMichael S Hanson(1-212) 622-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 25, 2022JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman (1-212) 834-Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-and geopoliti
14、cal uncertainty interact to create a larger-than-expected drag. This weeks sharp drops in March consumer confidence and PMI future output highlight the importance of sentiment in a forecast in which growth resiliency rests heavi-ly on households drawing down savings in the face of a severe purchasin
15、g power squeeze and firms continuing to fill elevat-ed job vacancies in the face of rising uncertainty. Sentiment can slide sharply after a geopolitical or financial shock, but this does not reliably signal a lasting economic impact (Figure 3). Indeed, incoming releases have been en-couraging. Led b
16、y solid readings on US demand and Asia industry over January and February, our global GDP now-caster has remained elevated in recent weeks even as 1Q22 GDP forecasts have been marked down (Figure 4). March readings will provide more substantial evidence of the impact of the invasion drag and inflati
17、on spike. This weeks March all-industry DM PMI sent an encouraging signal, rising to 56.2, a level aligned with our 3%ar global GDP forecast for next quarter. Over the past two months the services PMI has risen 5.9pts, consistent with our view that a fading Omicron drag will deliver particularly lar
18、ge benefits for service-sector activity. It was also encouraging to see a limited decline in the European surveys, which we had expected to slide sharply in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Financial tightening with stress pocketsWe expect next weeks US March employment report to rein-for
19、ce this positive signal. We look for a 550,000 job gain and a further dip in the unemployment rate. As this outcome push-es the Fed closer to considering a 50bp rate, the other concern is that rising interest rates and commodity prices interact to generate financial stresses. The news so far suggest
20、s that fi-nancial conditions are indeed tightening with a notable jump in US mortgage rates. However, there are no signs yet of a worrisome buildup in overall stress. This is no surprise in the US, where real interest rates remain low, private sector bal-ance sheets are healthy, and the impact of th
21、e global commod-ity shock is limited. EM credit also is not broadly under pres-sure. This partly reflects the cushion created by earlier EM central bank tightening. It also reflects terms-of-trade gains accruing to commodity exporters.There are two areas where signs of stress need to be moni-tored.
22、First, Europes greater exposure to the commodity price shock and the risks of a broadening conflict make the region more vulnerable to financial stress; this is reflected in CE4 credit risk and Euro area bank liquidity. Second, the collateral damage from the war in Ukraine on some of the smaller low
23、-income EM frontier economies is building. Even before the war, damage from the pandemic, followed by higher global oil and food prices in 2021, had already increased concerns about debt sustainability in many countries. The war-related further rise in commodity prices alongside the tightening in gl
24、obal financial conditions has aggravated the situation. Fund-ing widening current account deficits and external debt obli-gations has become markedly harder for Egypt, Ghana, and Tunisia on the African continent. In Asia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka face pressure along with Costa Rica, the Dominican Repu
25、blic, and El Salvador in Central America. Some of these economies have responded with monetary tightening and more flexible exchange rate management (such as in Egypt, Ghana, and Sri Lanka). However, policy action is unlikely to be sufficient and many of these economies will need to seek funding fro
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