乔治索罗斯关于金融市场和泡沫演讲全文.doc
《乔治索罗斯关于金融市场和泡沫演讲全文.doc》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《乔治索罗斯关于金融市场和泡沫演讲全文.doc(15页珍藏版)》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。
1、乔治索罗斯关于金融市场和泡沫演讲全文2009年10月,乔治索罗斯在位于匈牙利布达佩斯的中欧大学发表了共分五个部分的系列演讲。本文是他关于金融市场和泡沫的演讲的全文。Financial MarketsPublished: October 27 2009 22:26 | Last updated: October 27 2009 22:26 Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for demonstrating and testing the ideas that I put forward in an abstract form y
2、esterday. The course of events is easier to observe than in most other places. Many of the facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved. The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hy
3、pothesis, which has been the prevailing theory about financial markets. That theory claims that markets tend towards equilibrium; deviations occur in a random fashion and can be attributed to extraneous shocks. If that theory is valid, mine is falseand vice versa. I am not in a good position to crit
4、icize the prevailing paradigm directly. I went into the financial markets in order to make money, and to do that I did not need to know either modern portfolio theory or the theory of rational expectations. I developed my own interpretation of financial markets and put it forward as a clear alternat
5、ive to the prevailing view. When I published The Alchemy of Finance in 1987 I frankly admitted my ignorance of the generally accepted theories. No wonder that the economics profession reciprocated by ignoring my interpretation. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, did me the honor of ex
6、plicitly dismissing my theory, but most other economists simply ignored it. All this has changed in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Events have conclusively demonstrated the inadequacy of the efficient market hypothesis. It neither predicted nor explained what happened. At the same time, my
7、 writings provided a conceptual framework in terms of which events could be better understood. They began to be taken seriously, both by otherslike Mervyn Kingand by myself. I began to think that my interpretation does provide a new and better paradigm, and I put it forward as such in a book I publi
8、shed early in 2008, well before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. And yet the theory of reflexivity is still not accepted in academic circles. The failure of the efficient market hypothesis is generally admitted, but insofar as a new paradigm is emerging, it is based on behavioral economics. Behavi
9、oral economics is compatible with reflexivity but, as I will try to show, it explores only one half of the phenomenon.* * * Let me state the two cardinal principles of my conceptual framework as it applies to the financial markets. First, market prices always distort the underlying fundamentals. The
10、 degree of distortion may range from the negligible to the significant. This is in direct contradiction to the efficient market hypothesis, which maintains that market prices accurately reflect all the available information. Second, instead of playing a purely passive role in reflecting an underlyin
11、g reality, financial markets also have an active role: they can affect the so-called fundamentals they are supposed to reflect. That is the point that behavioral economics is missing. It focuses only on one half of a reflexive process: the mispricing of financial assets; it does not concern itself w
12、ith the impact of the mispricing on the so-called fundamentals. There are various feedback mechanisms at work which may validate the mispricing of financial assets, at least for a while. This may give the impression that markets are often right, but the mechanism at work is very different from the o
13、ne proposed by the prevailing paradigm. I claim that financial markets have ways of altering the fundamentals and that may bring about a closer correspondence between market prices and the underlying fundamentals. Contrast that with the efficient market hypothesis, which claims that markets always a
14、ccurately reflect reality and automatically tend towards equilibrium. There are various pathways by which the mispricing of financial assets can affect the so-called fundamentals. The most widely travelled are those which involve the use of leverageboth debt and equity leveraging. These pathways des
15、erve a lot more research. My two propositions focus attention on the reflexive feedback loops that characterize financial markets. There are two kinds of feedback: negative and positive. Negative feedback is self-correcting; positive feedback is self-reinforcing. Thus, negative feedback sets up a te
16、ndency toward equilibrium, while positive feedback produces dynamic disequilibrium. Positive feedback loops are more interesting because they can cause big moves, both in market prices and in the underlying fundamentals. A positive feedback process that runs its full course is initially self reinfor
17、cing, but eventually it is liable to reach a climax or reversal point, after which it becomes self reinforcing in the opposite direction. But positive feedback processes do not necessarily run their full course; they may be aborted at any time by negative feedback.* * * I have developed a theory abo
18、ut boom-bust processes, or bubbles, along these lines. Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. A boom-bust process is set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other. The process is liabl
19、e to be tested by negative feedback along the way. If the trend is strong enough to survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced. Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from reality that people are forced to recognize that a misconception is involv
20、ed. A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow, and more people loose faith, but the prevailing trend is sustained by inertia. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup said: we must continue dancing until the music stops. Eventually a point is reached when the trend is reversed; it then beco
21、mes self reinforcing in the opposite direction. C h a r t To go back to my original example, the conglomerate boom of the late 1960s: the underlying trend is represented by earnings per share, the expectations relating to that trend by stock prices. Conglomerates improved their earnings per share by
22、 acquiring other companies. Inflated expectations allowed them to improve their earnings performance, but eventually reality could not keep up with expectations. After a twilight period the price trend was reversed. All the problems that had been swept under the carpet surfaced, and earnings collaps
23、ed. As the president of one of the conglomerates, Ogden Corporation, told me at the time: I have no audience to play to.Typically, bubbles have an asymmetric shape. The boom is long and drawn out: slow to start, it accelerates gradually until it flattens out during the twilight period. The bust is s
24、hort and steep because it is reinforced by the forced liquidation of unsound positions. Disillusionment turns into panic, reaching its climax in a financial crisis. Bubbles that conform to this pattern go through distinct stages: inception; a period of acceleration, interrupted and reinforced by suc
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 乔治 罗斯 关于 金融市场 泡沫 演讲 全文
限制150内