2021年奢侈品未来.docx
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1、ContentsExecutive summary pg.11. Luxury spending trends in 2020 pg.52. Regional highlightspg.113. Distribution trendspg.154. Individual categoryperformancepg.195. Outlook for the futurepg.23Appendixpg.28Figure 1: The global luxury market contracted to 1 trillion in 2020, down 20% to 22% from 2019Wor
2、ldwide luxury market, 2020E ( billions)Year-over-year (YOY) growth, 2019-20EAt current exchange ratesPersonalLuxuryLuxuryFineGourmetHigh-endFinePrivateLuxuryTotalluxurycarshospitalitywinesfood &furniture &artjets &cruises2020Egoods& spiritsfinehousewaresyachtsdining-21%/-8%/ -55%/-10%/一 25%-10% -65%
3、-13%-15%/-17%-10%/-12%-35%/-10%/-65%/-40%-12%-75%Source: Bain & CompanyFigure 2: Experience-based goods suffered less in 2020 and should recover faster than personal luxury goods; experiences will recover last given their reliance on tourismGrowth of global luxury goods segments, indexed to 2010 (20
4、10-25F)2801802010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20E 21F 22F 23F 24F 25FCAGRYOYCAGR2010-1919-20E20E-25FExperiencebased goods8%-10%5%/9%Experiences9%-56%17%/21%Personal goods6%-21%7%/11%80Expected year of recovery to pre-Covid-19 level (i.e., 2019)Notes: Growth shown at current exchange rates; personal g
5、oods include high-end furniture, housewares and personal luxury goods; experience-based goods include fine art, luxury cars, private jets and yachts, fine wines and spirits, and gourmet food; experiences include luxury hospitality, cruises and fine dining Source: Bain & CompanyFigure 3: Covid-19 int
6、errupted the “new normaf5 path of the personal luxury goods market in 2020, leading to the first market contraction in over a decadeGlobal personal luxury goods market ( billions)YOY growth, 2019-20E-23% At current exchange rates-22% At constant exchange ratesCAGR 1996-2019E281254 262 11245 24421716
7、1 15920E10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09li207186167212 219139 15116 122 122 120 12876 84 88 98“Sortie du templeDemocratizationCrisisChineseshopping frenzyRebootNewnormalCovidcrisisSource: Bain & CompanyFigure 4: Q2 2020 was the worst quarter ever for persona
8、l luxury goods. There are signs of recovery in Q3, but uncertainty is the keyword for the holiday seasonGlobal personal luxury goods market, growth trend per quarter in 2020E (QoQ growth rate, 2020E vs. 2019)0% Q1Q2Q3Q4Estimated Q4QOQ growth2019-20E-12% /BaseWorst-22%-50%QOQ growth 2019-20EBest一 5%-
9、10%-20%-23%Most likely outcomeMarket performance in Q4 expected at different pace China at full speed, while Asia in recovery Americas sluggish (though on the right track). Europe still strugglingVariation in Q4 performance driven by: Performance during holiday season Evolution of Covid-19 and relat
10、ed additional restrictions/lockdowns (especially in Europe/Americas) Possible additional socioeconomic tensions (e.g., post-US elections, government measures in Europe) Macroeconomic evolutionEstimated full-year market growth(2020E vs. 2019)Source: Bain & CompanyRegional highlightsIn 2020, the globa
11、l ranking of luxury sales by region changed quite dramatically. Until 2019, Europe and the Americas were the biggest regions for luxury sales, but in 2020 Asia became the top region for luxury sales.This is largely driven by the performance of Mainland China, which has been the only region globally
12、to end the year on a positive note, growing by 45% at current exchange rates to reach 44 billion. Local consumption rebounded quickly and accelerated week after week, roaring ahead across all channels, categories, generations and price points. Travel retail in Mainland China experienced a boom this
13、year, particularly in Hainan. However, total purchases made by Chinese customers experienced a 30%-35% decline, due to Chinese customers not traveling: Purchases made abroad (historically up to two-thirds of total purchases by Chinese customers) thus declined by 70%.Japan shrank by 24% at current ex
14、change rates to 18 billion. Japanese customers refrained from spending during the crisis, but favored timeless brands viewed as long-term investments.The rest of Asia struggled, contracting by 35% at current exchange rates to reach 27 billion. Hong Kong and Macau were among the worst performers glob
15、ally. South Korean consumers showed strong appetite for luxury consumption, yet the duty-free market slumped. In Southeast Asia, a small and developing local customer base was not able to offset the collapse in tourism.Europe has borne the brunt of a collapse in global tourism. Demand fell by 36% at
16、 current exchange rates to 57 billion. In the second quarter, it was the worstperforming region globally, due to lack of tourism, lockdown measures, store network closures and low consumer confidence. However, local consumption showed resilience: Purchases by European customers decreased only by 10%
17、 15%. Local consumption moved to wealthy areas and showed the biggest shift to the online channel globally. Among European countries, Russia experienced the best performance.The Americas experienced less impact: The market fell by 27% at current exchange rates to 62 billion. In the US, local consump
18、tion showed the same resilience as in Europe (-10% to -15%). Despite lockdowns and political uncertainty, there were positive signs of a restart in Q3 due to the stimulus package. Department stores seem to have reached a point of no return and face an uncertain future. The map of luxury consumption
19、seems to be redrawn to move away from city centers. In South America, Brazil performed better than the regional average.Overall, the rest of the world contracted by 21 % at current exchange rates to 9 billion. The impact in the Middle East was mitigated by shorter lockdowns and repatriation of spend
20、ing previously made abroad, though with different nuances among countries within the region (the United Arab Emirates was most impacted). In Australia, the halt in tourism amplified a slowdown from the wildfires.Regional shifts mark an acceleration of a rebalancing of where luxury purchases take pla
21、ce, as tourists shift to buy in their home markets. The share of purchases made locally reached 80%-85% this year, and we expect it to represent between 65% and 70% as domestic purchases regain relevance, especially in China and the broader Asian region.Figure 5: Asia became the top region for luxur
22、y sales by valueShare of global personal luxury goods market, by region ( billions)CAGR2010-20EYOY arowth2019-20E1%1%-1%2%9%Note: Growth shown at current exchange rates Source: Bain & Company-21%-24%-36%-27%-2%Figure 6: China was the best performing country but had the most affected customers (not t
23、raveling); Europe was the most affected region but had the best performing customers (locally)Share of global personal luxury goods market,by consumer nationality ( billions, 2019-20E)Share of global personal luxury goods market, by region ( billions, 2019-20E)2816%2175%-7%2812174%7-9103324-2617-191
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