气候风险国家概况:印度尼西亚.docx
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1、FORE/ORD iiiiiittiiitiiiitiiiititiiiiiitiiiitlIEY ESSAGES2COUNTRY OVERVIEW2C LIY6Climate Baseline6Overview6Key Trends7Climate Future8Overview8CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS 12HEATWAVeS13Drought and Fire Risk14Flood15Sea Level Rise16Cyclones18CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS18Natural Resources18Water18Fisheri
2、es and CorAL19Forests and Biodiversity20Economic Sectors20Agriculture20Urban22Communities24Poverty and Inequality24Gender26Human Health27POLICIES AND PROGRAMS28National Adaptation Policies and SItategies28Climate Change Priorities of ADB and the WBG29TABLE 3, Projections of AverAGE temperATURe anoma
3、ly () in Indonesia for different seasons (3-monthly time slices) over different time horizons and emissions pathways, showing the median esTimates of the full CCKP model ensemble and the 10th and 90th percentiles in brACKets 29Scenario2040-20592080-2099Jun-AugDec-FebJun-AugDec-FebRCP2.60.90.90.90.8(
4、0.3, 1.6)(0.4, 1.4)(0.3, 1.6)(0.3, 1.5)RCP4.51.21.21.71.6(0.6, 1.8)(0.6, 1.7)(1.0, 2.4)(1.0, 2.4)RCP6.01.11.02.11.9(0.5, 1.6)(0.5, 1.6)(1.3, 2.8)(1.3, 2.8)RCP8.51.71.63.53.3(1。2.3)(1.0, 2.2)(2.6, 4.6)(2.5, 4.4)Xcsiro_mk3_6_01Xgiss_e2_h X加人ipsl_cm5a_mr XX X 文权jxXMedian, 10th and 90thPercentileso。) A-
5、euJoue a一 dE9 MeModel EnsembleClimate projections presented in this document are derived from datasets available through the CCKP, unless otherwise stated. These datasets are processed outputs of simulations performed by multiple General Circulation Models (GCM) (for further information see Flato et
6、 al.z 2013).Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C.z Collins, W.,. . Rummukainen, M. (2013). Evaluation of Climate Models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climat
7、e Change, 741-866. URL: : climatechange2013.org/images/report/WGlAR5_ALL_ FINAL.pdf Collectively, these different GCM simulations are referred to as the model ensemble7, Due to the differences in the way GCMs represent the key physical processes and interactions within the climate system, projection
8、s of future climate conditions can vary widely between different GCMs, this is particularly the case for rainfall related variables and at national and local scales. The range of projections from 16 GCMs for annual average temperature change and annual precipitation change in Indonesia under RCP8.5
9、is shown in Figure 4. Spatial representation of future projections of annual temperature and precipitation for mid and late century under RCP8.5 are presented in Figure 5.FIGURE 4, Projected AverAGE temperATURe anomaly and projected annual pain fall anomaly7 in Indonesia Outputs of 16 models within
10、the ensemble simulating RCP8 5 over the period 20802099 Models shown represent the subset of models within the ensemble that provide projections across all RCPs and therefore ARe most robust for comparison 29Three models ARe labelled 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Average a
11、nnual precipitation anomaly (%)Spatial VariationFIGURE 5. CMIP5 ensemble projected change (32 GCMs) in annual temperATURe (bottom) and prECiPlTATiON (top) by 2040-2059 (left) and by 2080-2090 (right) rELATlve to 1986-2005 baseline under RCP8 531FIGURE 5. CMIP5 ensemble projected change (32 GCMs) in
12、annual temperATURe (bottom) and prECiPlTATiON (top) by 2040-2059 (left) and by 2080-2090 (right) rELATlve to 1986-2005 baseline under RCP8 531Temperature ChangesProjections of future temperature change are presented in three primary formats. Shown in Table 2 are the changes (anomalies) in daily maxi
13、mum and daily minimum temperatures over the given time period, as well as changes in the average temperature. Figures 6 and 7 display the annual and monthly average temperature projections. While similar, these three indicators can provide slightly different information. Monthly/annual average tempe
14、ratures are most commonly used for general estimation of climate change, but the daily maximum and minimum can explain more about how daily life might change in a region, affecting key variables such as the viability of ecosystems, health impacts, productivity of labor, and the yield of crops, which
15、 are often disproportionately influenced by temperature extremes.Projections for annual average temperature rise for Indonesia from the CCKP model ensemble are less than the global average: 3.4 compared to 3.7 under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway by the 2080s through the end of the century. Under the
16、same pathway and time-period, the annual averages of maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase at a similar rate average temperature 3.4. Warming projections suggest a rise of ambient temperatures from approximately 26.5 towards 29-30, significantly increasing the frequency of days
17、with temperatures 30. However, all these projections are distorted by the inability of current global climate models to distinguish between ocean and land cover over Indonesia/s smaller islands. The KNMI Climate Explorer, which can interpolate to finer spatial scales, suggests that significantly hig
18、her rates of warming may be experienced in Indonesias inland regions. WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP 2021). Indonesia. Climate Data. Projections. URL: s:climatedata.world bank. org/CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=IDN&period=2080-2099 KNMI (2019). Climate Explo
19、rer: CMIP5 projections. URL: s:climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi For example, warming by the end of the century under RCP8.5 approaches 4 over central regions of Kalimantan and Sumatra. As such, adaptation planning should take account of potentialFIGURE 6. Historic and projected AVer age annual temperATURe
20、in Indonesia under two emissions pathways esTimated by the model ensemble Shading represents the standarcI deviATiON of the model ensemble Red depicts RCP8 5 AND Blue depicts RCP2 6 The solid line represents the median of the model ensemble with the shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33FI
21、GURE 6. Historic and projected AVer age annual temperATURe in Indonesia under two emissions pathways esTimated by the model ensemble Shading represents the standarcI deviATiON of the model ensemble Red depicts RCP8 5 AND Blue depicts RCP2 6 The solid line represents the median of the model ensemble
22、with the shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33Year Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5FIGURE 7, Projected change (anomaly) in monthly temperATURe, shown by month, for Indonesia for the period 20802099 under RCP8 5 The value shown represents the median of the model ensemble with the
23、 shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33temperatures rises higher than those shown in Tables 2 and 3. As Table 3 and Figure 7 show, there is very little seasonal variation in temperature changes projected by the CMIP5 ensemble of models under any emissions pathway and over any time period.P
24、recipitation ChangesFIGURE 8. Boxplots showing the projected AVer AGE ANNUAL prECIPITATION for INDONESIA in the period 2080-2099 33FIGURE 8. Boxplots showing the projected AVer AGE ANNUAL prECIPITATION for INDONESIA in the period 2080-2099 33Projections of future rainfall are more uncertain than tem
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