服务业供给侧结构性改革与跨越中等收入陷阱_英文_张建华.pdf
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1、 Social Sciences in China PressSocial Sciences in China, 2021Vol. 42, No. 1, 77-96, http:/dx.doi.org/10.1080/02529203.2021.1895502*This paper was funded by the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China, “Study on the Implementation of the New Concept of Development and the Moderniza
2、tion of National Governance” (Grant No.: 17VZL002) and the Youth Project “Quantitative Identification, Early Risk Warning and Countermeasures against the Middle Income Trap under the New Normal” (Grant No.: 16CJL015).Supply-Side Structural Reform in the Service Industry and Escaping the Middle Incom
3、e Trap*Zhang Jianhuaa and Cheng Wenba and b School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology 已占中国经济主导地位的服务业,其内部消费性和生产性的结构有待优化。通过服务业的供给侧结构性改革,推进先进制造业和现代服务业的深度融合,促进形成强大国内市场,是中国跨越中等收入陷阱的关键之举。选取45个非石油出口型经济体1950-2010年的数据,刻画世界服务业结构的典型事实,并将其中跨越中等收入陷阱的亚洲经济体与陷入陷阱的拉美经济体作为典型进行比较,进而构建包含消费性服务业、
4、生产性服务业和人力资本供给的匹配模型,揭示了服务业结构升级视角下的中等收入陷阱形成机理和跨越条件。大力发展生产性服务业,提升公共服务业对培育积累人力资本数量与质量的供给,实现高层次人力资本与知识密集型服务业的匹配效应,将推动中国经济结构转型升级,迈向高质量发展。关键词:生产性服务业消费性服务业中等收入陷阱供给侧结构性改革The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized. Int
5、roducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap. We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the struct
6、ural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap, and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries an
7、d their supply of human capital, with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry. Substantially developing the production service sector, raising the supply of public services so as to cul
8、tivate the quantity and quality of human capital, and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive service 78Social Sciences in Chinaindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of Chinas economic structure toward high-quality development.Keywords: production service indus
9、tries, consumption service industries, middle income trap, supply-side structural reformThe launch of reform and opening up in 1978 was followed by forty years of rapid development. Chinas economy is now standing at a historic starting point. In terms of the aggregate economy, the latest World Bank
10、classification (2018) shows that Chinas gross national income (GNI) per capita in 2017 was $8,690, between the lower limit ($3,896) and the upper limit ($12,055) of the upper-middle income group (calculated by the Atlas method).1 This means that China has completed the first half of the journey from
11、 an upper-middle income country to a high income one, and is currently embarking on the second half of the journey. In terms of economic structure, Chinese tertiary industrys share of added value has been the highest of all industry sectors for five years in a row, exceeding the sum of primary and s
12、econdary industry in 2015 for the first time and reaching 51.6 percent of GDP in 2017.2 Chinas economy has entered a stage of service-dominated development. However, merely expanding the share of services in GDP does not guarantee stable and sustainable macroeconomic growth, since the increase in th
13、e proportion of Chinas tertiary industry could be caused by the upgrading of consumption demand, a change in the conditions and environment of services supply, or further refinement of the industrial division of labor. An even more likely reason for these changes is the relative decline of manufactu
14、ring industry as a result of premature deindustrialization.3 Understanding the causes of the relative changes in the service industry and propelling the optimization and upgrading of its internal structure will therefore significantly affect the sustainable and healthy development of the overall eco
15、nomy in the future. Unlike manufacturing output, services output has the attributes of intangibility and high heterogeneity; production service industries in particular have an intensive intermediate-input character and are highly knowledge- and technology-intensive (KTI), with increasing returns an
16、d high barriers to entry. It is therefore essential to improve the quality of modern service industries.4 In China, modern high-end service industries have an inadequate share of the total, while traditional low-end service industries have a relatively high share. The latter play a minor role in ind
17、ustrial transformation and upgrading and reduce the overall productivity 1The World Bank, “World Bank Country and Lending Groups,” http:/data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups.2See “The Service Sector Continues to Lead and the New Economy Continues to Grow.” 3See Huang Qunhui, Huang Yan
18、ghua, He Jun et al., “A Study of Chinas Industrialization Strategy at the Upper Middle Income Stage”; “The Economist: Be Alert to the Risk of Premature Deindustrialization.” 4Liu Zhibiao, “The Development of the Modern Service Industry and Supply-Side Structural Reform.” Zhang Jianhua and Cheng Wen7
19、9of the service sector.5 On the other hand, promoting the development of human capital in education, healthcare, culture, sports and other non-material production sectors can accelerate the building of an innovative talent pool and release innovative dynamism, achieving the in-depth integration of p
20、roduction and non-production services and a fundamental combination of advanced manufacturing and modern services. At present, the major problems in Chinas service sector are insufficient support for the development of high-end manufacturing; an urgent need to raise aggregate output; and the need to
21、 optimize the internal structure. The key to economic restructuring is to prevent repetition of the Latin American economies mistakes of premature deindustrialization and to focus on supporting the high-quality development of the real economy and promoting high-end manufacturing through supply-side
22、structural reform of the service sector.This paper consists of five parts: Section I provides a brief literature review; Section II analyzes representative facts about the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide and escaping the middle income trap; Section III constructs a matched mod
23、el that covers the consumption and production service industries and the supply of human capital; Section IV uses numerical simulation of the model to take a further look at the paths to escaping the middle income trap in different policy mixes; and Section V provides our conclusions. I. Literature
24、ReviewThe term “middle income trap” first appeared in An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, published by the World Bank in 2007.6 Discussion of the existence and causes of the middle income trap have become increasingly heated in scholarly circles in China and abroad.7 Examining the
25、changes in the dominant driving forces behind economic growth and structural transformation is of particular importance, as such a trap may occur at all levels of per capita national income.8 On reaching the middle-income level, many economies see a fall in the proportion of the manufacturing indust
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