2020年5月亚太地区投资策略分析.docx
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1、4 June 2020Global ResearchEquity StrategyAsia PacificTim SmartProduct Manager +852-3712 4501William VanderpumpProduct Manager +852-2971 7140Niall MacLeodStrategist +852-2971 6186UBS Key Calls-APACMay 2020 - A host of new additionsNew joiner Ayala Corp was the top performerThe UBS APAC Key Call list
2、has underperformed the MSCI APAC index by 2.4% during May. Ayala Corp was Mays top performer, outperforming its local index, PHS Composite, by 13.4% since its inception on May 6,h. The most notable laggard in May was Murata, underperforming TOPIX by 6.9%. UBS Key Calls represent our highest- convict
3、ion single-stock research ideas within our APAC coverage universe. A one-page summary of our investment thesis (Thesis Map) on each stock begins on page 3.Added Ayala Corp, Land & Houses, Telkom Indonesia and L&T as Key Calls Despite earnings and macro policy risks due to COVID-19, we added Ayala Co
4、rp as a Key Call Buy, on the back of attractive valuations and overdone regulatory concerns. Ayalas relatively resilient core businesses and strong balance sheet could help mitigate headwinds.- With expectations of a sharp rise in inventory, a challenging funding outlook and potential for fiercer pr
5、ice competition in Thailands residential property sector, we add Land & Houses as a Key Call Sell. Despite, L&Hs focus on the low-rise segment, we believe it is not immune to the industrys low-profitability cycle and dividend cuts.- Results of the latest UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey show Telkoms
6、el maintaining its dominance in the mobile market, while extending its near-monopoly in the fast growing fixed broadband segment. This coupled with our detailed balance sheet and FCF analysis across the region; we conclude that Telkom Indonesias dividends are amongst the safest in regional telcos. W
7、e add Telkom Indonesia as a Key Call Buy.- We promote L&T to Key Call Buy. Our analysis indicates that L&Ts competitors could suffer more significant balance-sheet deterioration, which will weaken their ability to bid for new projects. This combined with the trend of CAPEX composition shifting towar
8、ds more complex projects, where L&T has a decisive edge, will lead to market share gain for L&T.- We removed Afterpay from the Key Call list on May 4th after Tencent took a 5% stake in the company.Figure 1: UBS APAC Key CallsNote: Above data as of 31 May 2020. *Relative performance against local ind
9、ices: KOSPI for Samsung Electronics; HSCEI for Ping An, Sun Art Retail. Longi Green Energy and Guangzhou R&F; HIS for CLP Holdings; JCI for Telkom Indonesia; SENSEX for L&T; TOPIX for Murata Mfg and Fujitsu; and ASXAO for Aristocrat. Source: Reuters, UBS estimates. N/A is shown if comparison date is
10、 before inception date. For SELL calls, performance is multiplied by a factor of -1. We slightly changed the price target of Telkom Indonesia on 3,d June,2020.StockReuters codeRatingInception dayMarket cap (US$ bn)Share pricePrice targetAbs perf since inceptionRei perf since inception*Relative perf
11、vs. MSCI APAC since inceptionPE (x) 2019EPE (x)2020EPing An Insurance2318.HKBuy22-Jun-18180.3HKS76.50HK$96.900.5%16.4%11.3%9.39.6AristocratALL.AXBuy8-May-1910.9AS25.72AS31.800.1%8.1%6.2%19.240.6CLP Holdings0002.HKBuy3-Sep-1924.7HKS75.95HKS95.00-3.1%7.3%-1.9%19.616.4Fujitsu6702.TBuy5-Sep-1920.711100.
12、0013000.0032.8%29.0%34.6%14.011.4Murata Mfg.6981.TBuy17-Sep-1935.96015.007000.0018.1%21.0%23.7%17.319.3Guangzhou R&F2777.HKBuy25-Nov-194.3HKS9.57HKS22.00-25.2%-16.2%-17.3%4.42.5Sun Art Retail6808.HKBuy5-Mar-2014.6HKS11.86HK$14.6817.4%26.6%21.9%23.134.3Samsung Electronics005930.KSBuy17-Mar-20244.6Won
13、50700.00Won74000.003.7%-14.7%-11.7%15.716.1Longi Green Energy601012.SSBuy17-Apr-2017.1Rmb32.41Rmb41.0023.3%24.4%17.2%16.617.5Land & HousesLH.BKSell5-May-202.7Bt7.30Bt5.501.4%4.5%7.0%16.417.5Ayala CorpAC.PSBuy6-May-209.2P747.50P850.0016.3%13.4%11.4%16.617.3Telkom IndonesiaTLKM.JKBuy11-May-2021.2Rp315
14、0.00Rp4300.00-1.3%-4.7%-4.2%15.816.9L&TLART.BOBuy26-May-2017.3Rs932.30Rs1195.0014.3%8.5%11.0%21.714.2This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research
15、 reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Samsung 日ectronicsWHATS PRICED IN?Buy (Price target Won74
16、,000)UBS Research THESIS MAPPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Is the memory upcycle still in play amidst COVID-19?Yes for DRAM. We forecast marginal DRAM oversupply in 2H20, followed by a strong upcycle in 2021. We are less sanguine on NAND flash, and forecast NAND oversupply to come back by 3Q20 and to deepen in
17、 2021. On the supply side, we believe COVID-19 has likely removed for now the upside risk to supply addition later in 2020.“Foundalions for a NIE earnings recovery 5/26/2020-Q: Will Displays profits become less volatile?Yes. Post adjustment for negative end-demand impact from COVID-19 we expect RGB
18、(Mobile) OLED panels to generate c.10% OP margin in 2020E. We now factor in as our Base Case Samsung exiting the LCD panels sector, and focusing on QD Display (large panels OLED).Foundations for a *21E earnings recovery 5/26/2020-*Q: Could we see upside to shareholder returns?Yes longer term. Samsun
19、g sets its policy at 50% of ex M&A FCF 18-20E with a floor being the set dividend (Won28.8tn aggregate). We expect Samsung to at least roll over or expand its shareholder returns policy to subsequent years, the upside being indicating a gross cash target.2Epundatiorrs for a ,21E earnings recovery0 5
20、/26/2020-UBS VIEWWhilst we expect some DRAM oversupply in 2H20, we estimate that DRAM supply growth will trail demand as it normalizes into 2021 post COVID-19 and expect a strong cyclical uptick. NAND flash may see oversupply again by 3Q20, but Samsung is very likely to increase its share of industr
21、y profits. Mobile and Displays could benefit from Huawei potentially losing share, whilst the move to QD OLED from LCD could help smooth profits over time. We are positive on FCF returns longer term.EVIDENCEOur industry analysis indicates that (1) 3Q20 server DRAM demand remains solid on aggregate;
22、(2) Mobile demand is bound to weaken further into 3Q; (3) Capacity additions remain limited. The 1Q20 UBS Evidence Lab Smartphones Survey shows high retention rates for Samsung smartphones at 73%.Samsung is trading at 1.25x NTM P/BV, implying LT ROE of 8.9% vs. UBSe est. of (2020-24E) 13.2%.UPSIDE /
23、 DOWNSIDESPECTRUM005930. KS Price8Sz00080,00075,00070,00065,00060,0005S.00050,00045,00040,00035,0006.957 x5.266 x11.Upside: 47%14 lxB3: 36%P/E (U8S) ImpliedUpsklc to Downside L5 to ieo.ooo.o 74,000.0 -201820192020Value driversDRAM ASP %YoY 20Er21ENAND ASP %YoY 20E/21E20E/21EOP,18-20E FCF returnsW80,
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