20160606_2025年东南亚在线旅游市场.pdf
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1、e-conomy SEA Unlocking the $200 billion digital opportunity in Southeast AsiaGoogle internet usage data by country; smartphone penetration by countryVC and startup activity by country (including number of deals, exits, size of startups, number of startups by funding stage, etc.)59 expert interviews
2、(21 startups, 12 VCs, 23 analysts at leading banks, and 3 industry experts across 6 countries) to validate research findingsNumerous sources such as Worldbank, UN, EIU, Euromonitor, McKinsey, WEF, and government websites were used to calculate economic development indicators such as population trend
3、s, GDP growth, etc.1234DATA SOURCEDESCRIPTION1Research scopeINCLUDEDEXCLUDED3 major sectors: 1. First-hand eCommerce (i.e. online spend on electronics, apparel/clothing, household goods, food/grocery) 2. Travel (online spend on hotels, airlines and ride hailing) 3. Media (online spend on ads and gam
4、ing)SectorsGeographiesOnline spending in sectors which have not materially been disrupted by the internet in SEA, such as: 1. Education 2. Entertainment/movies 3. Health (insurance, etc.) 4. Financial servicesSecond-hand eCommerce purchases6 major SEA countries including Indonesia, Singapore, Malays
5、ia, Philippines, Thailand and VietnamOther SEA countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar2Executive summary (1/2)SEA1 is the worlds fastest growing internet region (14% 5-year CAGR) with an existing internet user base of 260m growing to 480m users by 2020 (3.8m / month) Consequently, the SEA1 inte
6、rnet economy2 is expected to grow to $200+ billion by 2025; driven mostly by the growth of first-hand eCommerce market (32% CAGR over next 10 years) followed by online media (18% CAGR), and online travel (15% CAGR) The total first-hand eCommerce market in SEA1is expected to reach $88 billion by 2025
7、; significantly outpacing the growth of offline retail (32% vs. 7% 10-year CAGR) with potential to reach $120 billion 3 factors that are unique to SEA1 will drive growth: A burgeoning young population with 70% under the age of 40 Lack of big-box retail (SEA retail stores per capita 1/3rdof US); acce
8、ss particularly difficult in remote islands which are abundant in PH and ID Rapidly growing middle-class (forecasted GDP growth of 5.3% over next 10 years)Number of transactions expected to be biggest growth driver (27% 10-year CAGR), as more people gain access to the internet and availability of pr
9、oducts online increases All SEA countries are expected to have an eCommerce market $5b Online travel (hotels, airlines, and rides) is expected to reach $90 billion by 2025 (15% CAGR); Hotels + airlines will compose 85% of total online travel market (15% CAGR) or $77 billion; Low Cost Carriers will d
10、rive majority of growth due to their prominence in SEA (35% of gross booking vs 13% in rest of APAC) and higher online penetration (55% vs 35% for regional carriers)1 includes PH, VN, TH, SG, MY, ID 2 includes first-hand eCommerce (apparel, electronics, household goods, food/grocery), travel (hotels
11、, airlines, ride hailing), and online media (ads + gaming)SOURCE: Google, Temasek, World Bank, UN3Executive summary (2/2) Online rides (e.g., Uber, Grab) should reach $13 billion (18% CAGR); Number of riders biggest driver of growth; 30-day active riders expected to reach 29m (vs 7.3m in 2015)Online
12、 media (ads + gaming) will contribute $20 billion by 2025 (10% of total GMV) but will be highly profitable sectors Making SEA a $200 billion internet economy2 will require $40-50 billion of additional investments over the next 10 years (assumes VC investment as a percentage of GDP reaches similar le
13、vels to India and SEA 1 GDP grows at 5.3% CAGR ) Additionally, 5 other challenges must be addressed through public and private-sector initiatives including: 1.Talent / engineering: Lack of senior developer and CXO-level talent causing startups to rely on expat talent from China and US; new tech-focu
14、sed educational programs will need to be instated to create future pipeline2.Payment mechanisms: Still no scalable e-payment alternative resulting in increase of Cash on Delivery transactions, which, in turn increases risk and cost for merchants3.Internet infrastructure: Low internet speeds and pene
15、tration rate due to regulatory and geographical constraints (e.g., Philippines has 2nd slowest internet in Asia due to duopoly structure); innovative PPP initiatives (e.g., Project Loon) required to make high-speed internet a commodity in SEA4.Logistics infrastructure: Government investment and focu
16、s will be required to improve road and rail networkswhich are critical to ensure a fast and efficient delivery system5.Lack of consumer trust: Consumers wary of making transactions online due to various security issues such as fraud (e.g., orders from Indonesia are 12x as likely to be fraudulent as
17、global average);1 includes PH, VN, TH, SG, MY, ID 2 includes first-hand eCommerce (apparel, electronics, household goods, food/grocery), travel (hotels, airlines, ride hailing), and online media (ads + gaming)SOURCE: Google, Temasek, World Bank, UN4AgendaOverview of SEA Internet economyThe SEA inter
18、net opportunitySEA VC and startup landscapeChallenges to overcome5SEAs internet economy is ready to take off, with 124k users coming online every day for the next 5 yearsSOURCE: World Bank, Google260MUsers already online; 4th largest internet market in the world3.8MUsers coming online every month; f
19、astest growing internet market in the world700MMobile connections; 130% of population6SEA to be the fastest growing internet market in the world (480m users by 2020); Indonesia fastest growing nation in the worldSOURCE: World Bank, Google1 Assumes internet penetration will reach 92% in SG, 85% in VN
20、, TH, PH, and MY, and 78% in IDGrowth in internet users (CAGR%, 2015-20)Internet users by country1 (# m, 2015-2020)Indonesia is the fastest growing internet market in the world714ASEANIndiaChinaUSUS144 113859 Thailand9% CAGR (2015-20)56 Singapore3% CAGR (2015-20)92215Indonesia19% CAGR (2015-20)4482V
21、ietnam13% CAGR (2015-20)5593Philippines11% CAGR (2015-20)2228Malaysia5% CAGR (2015-20)AgendaOverview of SEA Internet economyThe SEA internet opportunitySEA VC and startup landscapeChallenges to overcome8SOURCE: World Bank, Temasek, Phocuswright, Canalys, Government websites, Team analysis The intern
22、et economy in SEA is expected to reach $200 billion by 2025 (6.5x increase over 10 years)eCommerce and Travel to make up 90% of total online retail spend in 2025321Online media (ads + gaming)Travel (hotels and flights, ride hailing)eCommerce (apparel, electronics, household goods, food / grocery)Mar
23、ket size by segment ($, billion)10-year CAGR (%)181532966.5x 202519788 90 2015 31 22 4 20ChinaSOURCE: Expert InterviewsThe eCommerce market is split into two key segments, each with a different operating and monetization model1 exact market size unknown due to infancy of market and unavailability of
24、 concrete dataeCommerceFirst-hand goodsSecond-hand goodsModel DescriptionMonetization Strategy2015 market sizeCompanies / channels Sale of new goods (contributing to GDP) either through a market place, online store or social media Margin-based (Online retailer receives a % of sales revenue) Transact
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