HSBC-全球投资策略-货币展望:重要的是旅程而不是目的地-2021.5正文版.doc
《HSBC-全球投资策略-货币展望:重要的是旅程而不是目的地-2021.5正文版.doc》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《HSBC-全球投资策略-货币展望:重要的是旅程而不是目的地-2021.5正文版.doc(66页珍藏版)》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。
1、CurrenciesGlobalMay 2021By: HSBC FX StrategyCurrency OutlookThe journey matters, not the destinationBroad USD weakness has gatheredspeed lately, but there are manytwists and turns that require acalibrated strategyThe drivers of the FX market aresteering towards expected policynormalisation but it is
2、 still a longjourney aheadIn this edition, we also discuss thedigital EUR, the outlook for the JPY,AUD, NZD, platinum and morePlay video withPaul Mackel and Joey ChewDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and
3、 with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Currencies GlobalMay 2021SummaryTwists and turns(pg 2)Broad USD weakness has gathered speed lately, but there are twists and turns that require a calibrated strategy. The drivers of the FX market are steering towards expected policy normalisation but it i
4、s still a long journey. While the USD is seen underperforming for now, we remain mindful of the conditions that could see it reaccelerate to pass by other currencies.EUR: Lets get digitaldigital(pg 7)The ECB has begun thinking about the path towards a digital EUR. While any rollout of such a CBDC wi
5、ll take time, we consider what path the ECB may decide to take and the implications for the international role of the EUR.JPY: New year, new flows(pg 13)Some market participants may be wondering if life insurance companies (lifers) bond investments will surge in the new fiscal year, which could push
6、 USD-JPY higher. However, we find that GPIFs portfolio allocation and speculative positioning have empirically been more important for the JPY. With a slowdown in outflows, stable short positioning and currency undervaluation, we see insufficient evidence to turn more bearish on the JPY.GBP: Twice u
7、pon a time?(pg 20)GBP has found sound relief following the 6 May elections, but a second Scottish independence referendum is still possible. This would raise questions around the currency of an independent Scotland, with possible options including an informal or formal monetary union, or a new Scott
8、ish pound.AUD & NZD: Highway to currency strength(pg 25)AUD and NZD have strengthened despite dovish central banks. This is likely to continue given their strong external balance and the interplay between monetary conditions and FX. We see AUD-USD and NZD-USD rising to 0.81 and 0.75 respectively by
9、end 2021.Go with the flow(pg 30)Speculative flows are an important driver of FX markets. Last month, we introduced a proprietary HSBC dataset which tracks aggregate flows seen on the HSBC eFX trading system.Platinum Group Metals(pg 34)PGM supply and demand factors are adjusting to a global recovery,
10、 with platinum shifting to a mild surplus. However, the palladium deficit is widening with visible stocks insufficient to plug the gap. We raise our near-term PGM forecasts.FX Market: April 2021(pg 37)For those who are looking for a review of what happened over the last month, we present a market re
11、view of April. We consider the main drivers and key events which moved markets.1Currencies GlobalMay 2021Twists and turnsu Broad USD weakness has gathered speed latelyu but there are twists and turns that require a calibrated strategyu The drivers of the FX market are steering towards expected polic
12、y normalisation but it is still a long journeyReversing gearsOur broad message has not changed for some time. We have been expecting modest USD weakness this year as the global economic recovery gains momentum. The US economy is in the drivers seat but exceptional growth should only matter for the U
13、SD if it drives anexceptional monetary response. The difference this time may be that the Fed sees the outlook differently, with it only willing to change to a more hawkish stance if the rise in growth and inflation turns out to be durable rather than transitory. This probably will not becomeclear u
14、ntil later this year, given the volatility in recent activity data and noisy inflation base effects. So we have months to wait.Meanwhile, the market has been realising that other economies are picking up speed, as the global vaccine efforts deepen. This emboldens the thinking that it will not be the
15、 US economy alone that is recovering, and this has increasingly steered the USD into a weaker state versus most currencies. Over the past month the USD has nearly reversed most of its gains posted in Q1 this year (Chart 1).What also stands out is the mix of influences in determining the path for exc
16、hange rates this year. During most of 2020, the inverse relationship of the USD to the ebb and flow of risk appetite was the dominant driver. Risk remains relevant but has been less impactful since the beginning of the year and for good reasons too (Chart 2). As we move away from the epicentre of a
17、market shock (i.e. March 2020), over time, there should be a re-establishment with the pre-crisis drivers for exchange rates. The belief that the global economy is gradually healing should imply some future degree of monetary policy normalisation will eventually occur, which is then partly discounte
18、d by exchange rates today.1. The USD has lost ground quickly over the past month, reversing its gains in Q18%6%Spot performance v ersus USD4%2%0%-2%-4%Q1-2021Q2-to-date-6%-8%L W R D RBR JPY C HF SEK PLN KR EU ILS H UF C ZK N ZD MXN SGD R UB AU TWD ZAR C NY IN N OK GBP C ADSource: Bloomberg, HSBC2. T
19、he USDs relationship to risk appetite is less strong this year440011342001154000117380011936001213400123320012530001272800129260013124001332200135Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21S&P 500 Index (LHS)USD NEER (RHS, inversed)Source: Bloomberg, HSBC23. Exchange rate sensitivity to short-term inte
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- HSBC 全球 投资 策略 货币 展望 重要 旅程 而不是 目的地 2021.5 正文
限制150内