兰德-信用信息市场的未来(英)-2021.7-70正式版.ppt
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1、Future of the CreditInformation MarketFinal reportFay Dunkerley,Katerina Galai,Charlene Rohr,Emily Gloinson,Marina Favaro,William PhillipsThis research was conducted through RAND Europes Centre for Futures andForesight Studies(CFFS).The CFFS brings together deep expertise in futuresresearch methods
2、along with specialist sector knowledge to help our clients planfor the future in conditions of uncertainty.Commissioned by theFinancial Conduct Authority Copyright 2021 Financial Conduct AuthorityFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA608-1Published by the RAND Corporation,
3、Santa Monica,Calif.,and Cambridge,UKR is a registered trademark.RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policyand decision making through research and analysis.RANDs publications do notnecessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.All right
4、s reserved.No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by anyelectronic or mechanical means(including photocopying,recording,or informationstorage and retrieval)without permission in writing from the sponsor.Support RANDMake a tax-deductible charitable contribution atwww.rand.org/giving/contr
5、ibutewww.rand.orgwww.randeurope.orgPrefaceRAND Europe was commissioned by the Financial Conduct Authority(FCA)to conduct forward-lookingresearch to understand how the credit information market might evolve in the future.The research wasundertaken between July 2019 and December 2020.This report forms
6、 part of the Credit InformationMarket Study(CIMS)undertaken by the FCA.1A rigorous,rigorous,structuredstructured andand expert-led approach expert-led approach was adopted to identify several plausible scenarios of howthe credit information market might develop in five to ten years time.Using a stru
7、ctured scenario methodology and an extensive,iterative expert and stakeholder consultation,this project identified the factors influencing change,built an understanding of how the market mightevolve in the future and the implications of different scenarios.The findings published in this report formp
8、art of the overall evidence base for the Credit Information Market Study.This report contains the findings from:xxPhase 1 Identifying and prioritising key factors that could shape the future of the market;andPhase 2 Developing a number of potential coherent scenario narratives.It also contains detai
9、ls of the underpinning methodologies we used to arrive at the final scenarios.RAND Europe is an independent,not-for-profit policy-research organisation whose mission is to helpimprove policy-and decision-making through objective research and analysis.RAND Europes clientsinclude European governments,
10、institutions,NGOs and firms with a need for rigorous,independent andmultidisciplinary analysis.For more information about the project or this report,please contact:Dr Fay DunkerleySenior Analyst,Home Affairs and Social PolicyRAND EuropeWestbrook Centre,Milton RoadCambridge CB4 1YGUnited KingdomTel.+
11、44(1223)353 329,x2595fdunkerlrandeurope.org1 See FCA 2020b.iiiSummaryRAND Europe was commissioned by the Financial Conduct Authority(FCA)to conduct forward-lookingresearch to understand how the credit information market might evolve in the future.This report formspart of the Credit Information Marke
12、t Study(CIMS)undertaken by the FCA.The credit information market involves a diverse range of stakeholder groups,extending beyond the corerelationship between financial institutions and customers to include credit reference agencies(CRAs),regulators,consumer representatives and FinTech companies,amon
13、g others.In the UK,the FinancialConduct Authority(FCA)plays a key regulatory role in the market.The credit information market is closely linked to the lending markets but can also be influenced by factorsthat are external to these markets.CRAs could potentially face a wider range of competitors who
14、use newand emerging technology to process vast datasets.Consumers attitudes to sharing data may be shaped byexperiences in other sectors,which in turn may be influenced by changes in regulation,such as GDPR.Inthis study,key factors were identified across five areas that could influence the evolution
15、 of the creditinformation market.The five thematic areas and corresponding key factors are depicted in Figure S1 below.Interactions across these five areas were identified as critical in determining the future development of thecredit information and lending markets.Figure S1 Thematic areas and key
16、factors that influence the credit information marketUncertainty in these factors and how they interact could lead to different paths over the next ten years.Scenarios are long-standing tools that are used to explore this uncertainty.The scenario development was underpinned by a structured,expert-led
17、 approachIn this study a structured-scenario development methodology was used.A key feature of this approach isthat the scenarios take account of a range of interrelated factors from both within the credit informationivmarket and other influencing areas exogenous to it.They therefore provide an inte
18、rnally consistent andplausible picture of what may happen both in the credit information market,and within wider society.Structured engagement with experts was a key component of the research approach.To ensure the studywas balanced and did not over-represent one groups interests or a narrow point o
19、f view,the project teamidentified a wide range of relevant disciplines and sectors from which to draw expertise.Inputs from expertsand stakeholders have been used in a structured way throughout the project to develop the key factors thatdescribe the credit information market,understand how these int
20、eract and could develop in the future(factor projections)and select the scenario clusters.Stakeholder consultation was comprised of the followingactivities:scoping interviews,remote survey exercises,workshops,consistency analysis,cross-impact analysisand multiple feedback sessions.Four future scenar
21、ios have been developed for the credit information marketFour scenarios have been developed in the study.These scenarios represent a wide spectrum(envelope)ofpossible futures and are sufficiently differentiated from each other,in terms of credit information and widersocietal developments,to provide
22、a broad test for future policies.The scenarios are written from the vantagepoint of 2030;this timeframe was adopted to reflect both the five-to ten-year horizons of interest for thewider Credit Information Market Study,and a sufficient timespan for the scenarios to be informative froma policymaking
23、perspective.vFour future scenarios for the credit information marketviThe four scenarios provide insights into the implications for the credit information market,the lendingmarkets,consumers and wider society.Below we highlight some of the key observations and lessons.The scenarios play out against
24、a range of economic backdrops.These indicate that,whileeconomic circumstances play a role in consumer demand for credit and that this maydiffer between population segments,consumer demand is also influenced by the cost ofcredit and the willingness and ability of consumers to engage with the markets.
25、CompetitionCompetition andand innovationinnovation in both the credit information and lending markets is akey driver in enabling lenders to access a wider variety of better-quality credit informationat a lower cost.However,where competition is driven by more players in the creditinformation or lendi
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