全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察.docx
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1、Economic ResearchFebruary 1, 2019ContentsUS: Revisiting the terminal size of the Fed balance sheet16US: Tax cuts and houseprices18UK: Brexit meets global in slow growth tango20SA: Assessing fiscal hit and implications ofSOE reality22Turkey: Rebalancing and deleveraging fast 25RBA to start the year w
2、ith a familiar narrative29Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Economics9The J.P. Morgan View: Markets10Data WatchesUnited States31Euro area38Japan44Canada48Mexico50Brazil52Argentina54Chile and Colombia56United K
3、ingdom58Emerging Europe60South Africa & SSA63MENA65EMEA EM focus67Australia and New Zealand68China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan70Korea74ASEAN76India80Asia focus82Regional Data Calendars84J. P MorganGlobal Data WatchFOMC shifts from a pause in tightening to a neutral stance Manufacturing weakness persists
4、as global capex gains likely stallExpecting a broader dovish tilt from EM central banks Next week: RBI to ease; German IP rebounds; composite PMI dropsInto the closet, Mr. PhillipsTwo key elements of our macroeconomic outlook were pr ominent in this weeks news flow. The first is that drags weighing
5、on global growth are unlikely to fade soon and will be concentrated in the manufacturing sector. The second is that these drags are being absorbed, thus far, with limited adj us t- ments to private sector behavior and with additional macroeconomic policy supports. Of greatest importance on the polic
6、y front is this weeks signal from the Fed that it no longer has a bias toward tightening and that inflation will need to move up before it considers further rate increases. This shift suggests that even with a reasonably firm economy the risk has tilted away from our forecast of a resumption of tigh
7、tening in July.The latest activity readings point to a new leg of manufacturing weakness with the global manufacturing output PMI declining l.lpts to 50.8 in January, consistent with IP gains of just 1.1% ar. Of more concern is that the new orders PMI slid to just 50.1, its lowest level in over six
8、years. From the demand side, the source of this production weakness likely is capex. With the fall in PMI orders concentrated in Germany (44.7), China (47.3), and Japan (48.7), it is reasonable to conclude that last years slide in business expectations is now slowing global investment spending. Avai
9、lable data point to a sharp deceleration in our global capex proxy, with global capital goods imports tracking back-to-back declines in Novem- ber/December, led by a collapse in China (Figure 1). Likewise, our global inves t- ment goods output PMI plunged in January, consistent with a stall in capex
10、 growth. For the past year, a slide in business expectations, linked to the US-China trade conflict, threatened to slow investment spending. This appears to be happening, with other sources of geopolitical uncertainty and the tigh tening in global financial conditions last quarter magnifying the dra
11、g.At the same time that manufacturing struggles, the news from labor markets and consumers remains upbeat. Led by robust US jobs growth, this week d e- livered positive readings across the G-3. Solid employment gains are combining with falling inflation to boost retail spending gains, even as consum
12、erFigure 1: Global employment and capexFigure 2: Global mfg output PMIBruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212) 834-5516JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735JPMorgan Chase Bank NA51015181820Source: J.P. Morgan-5The J.P. Morgan ViewThe value question, if the
13、 Fed Bonds: Stay short US 5Y on valuations. 10Y Bund target lowered to 0.5%. A dovish Fed justifies moving to long duration in EM (see Goulden from Jan 31st).s reaction function is truly changingCross-asset strategy: Punctuated by a Fed meeting that might have signaled a change in the Feds reaction
14、function, this January has been the strongest for several markets in a quarter century. It wont be known for some time whether the Fed has changed how it views its policy objectives or whether it is just demonstrating its overreaction function. During this finding-out phase, investors face the quest
15、ion of how to assess value when the Feds short-term path is clear, its medium-term path hazy, and therefore the longevity of this (almost) oldest US expansion uncertain. We discuss strategy over each horizon in turn. Increase cyclical exposure via EM duration and FX rather than via DM Credit. For th
16、ose like us who think US inflation is becoming a wildcard again, stay long Gold and consider US linkers to hedge Fed success on achieving its symmetric target. New trades this week: Moved EM duration and FX to OW post-Fed (Goulden). Sold CDX.IG vs S&P500 (Toublan). Recommended efficient option struc
17、tures for selling USD (Sandilya). Economics: This weeks Fed decision was dramatically more dovish than we anticipated given how the FOMC treated rate guidance, risk bias and balance sheet language. Our economists havent changed their call for a resumption of hikes in H2, but timing is quite uncertai
18、n if indeed the Feds reaction function and inflation objective are changing (see Feroli from Jan 30 ). Pre-meeting the team changed their enddate on balance sheet run-off from QI 2021 to early Q2 2020 (see Feroli from Jan 30th). Current industry and sentiment data still show downward momentum, but a
19、t least Fed policy is breaking the negative feedback loop that emerged in late 2018. US-China negotiations are also evolving constructively (see Zhu from Feb 1st). Equities: Light positioning confirmed by above- average rallies on earnings beats andbelow-average declines on misses (see Matejka from
20、Jan 31st). Credit: Favor US HY over HG on supply and energy prices, and Euro HG over HY on growth risks. In EM, took partial profits on Sovs given rally (Nguyen). Currencies: Fed setting weakens USD more vs EM than the GIO bloc, since its a high-yielder within the latter group (see Meggyesi from Jan
21、 31st). Commodities: Venezuela adds to supply risks - stay long WTL Base Metals need stronger PMIs more than dovish Fed to lift meaningfully. Catalysts next week: Q4 earnings, Chinese New Year, Fed speak (all week, Powell on Feb 6th); RBA, services PMIs, State of the Union (Feb 5lh); Bacen, US ULCs
22、(Feb 6lh);_ BoE, Banxico, RBI, German IP (Feb 7th); CBR (Feb 8th). The J.P. Morgan View video (Normand & Edgerton): Click here to watchFigure 1: Year-to-date returnsMSCI Turkey ($)MSCI Brazil $MSCI Russia $ MSCI S. Africa 固Russell 2000MSCI China ($)MSCI Korea $MSCI Mexico ($)NasdaqMSCI EM (in $ S&P5
23、00 MSCI ACWI Commodities MSCI EMU EM local in $ (GBI-EM) Topix US HY credit EM external (E峭Australia equities (ASX 200 EM corps (CEMBIEMFX (ELMI Euro HY credi US Lev Loans US HG credit Spanish Bonos US linkers Italian BTPs Euro linkers German Bunds Eureaw USTreasunUSD 3M cashUSD trade-wtd -2 MSCI In
24、dia ($)-2Punctuated by a Fed meeting that flapped about dovishly on almost every policy issue, January delivered some of the strongest start-of-year performances across markets in a quarter century (Figure 1). The low double-digit/high single-digit returns on US large and small cap stocks, global eq
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