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1、J.PMorganFor the US High Grade CorponHigh Grade Automotive2020 Outlook | December 2019High Grade Autos/Auto PartsJonathan Rau AC(212) 834-5237 | jonathan.d.raujpmorgan Jordan Sabourin(212) 834-4143 | jordan.sabourinjpmorgan J.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee end pages for analyst certification and import
2、ant disclosures, including investment banking relationships. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors shou
3、ld consider this report as a single factor in making their investment decision. US auto sales are down slightly y/y YTD in 2019, but remain at historically healthy levelsYTD through November, SAAR is tracking to 17.0mm,down 1 % y/y but in-line to slightly above prevailing industry forecastsIHS forec
4、asts auto sales to decline by 2% in 2020 to 16.7mm, and forecasts sales to remain in the mid 16mm rate over the next 3 years, which we think would be supportive for automotive creditWe expect auto sales will decline modestly in 2020, but remain resilient on a historical basis given the relative age
5、of the car pare and a still healthy economic backdropThe labor market remains tight and consumer confidence has rebounded post the late 2018 bout of marketvolatilityNovember 2019 SAAR tracked to a 17.2mm rate, above the 16.9mm consensus; industry sales volumes decreased 2.0% on a selling-day adjuste
6、d basisUS Passenger Vehicle Market Share by Brand (2018)M(D00M(D00Source: Autodata.10201816 -141210ht Vehicle Sales Forecast必6.6吧苧6. .2III II;i16.515.6 17x5l7-6l7.217.3yj16716.516.4OlCXICO 寸 99ZOO ooooooooo oooooooooueccc 山Roz 山 osz 山 6OZ 8OZ zoz 9OZ goCNJ WON cooz zoz Loz ooz 600ZSource: IHS Automo
7、tive.Y/Y Monthly SAAR ComorisonSource: Wards Automotive. 2017 -2018 20193qE一s-s.sEoa ,l-sE ON Dq。一00J.R MorganDespite Rising Incentive Spending, ATPs Continue to Hit Record HighsIndustry incentive spending is on the rise again after a nine month streak of y/ydeclines YTD incentive spending remains 1
8、 % lower relative to 2018 despite the reversal of declines starting in June 2019Stronger November 2019 sales were likely driven by an acceleration in industry average incentive spending related to Black Friday (up 11 % y/y in November)Incentive spending remains historically high, but trends are less
9、 concerning when viewed in the context of average transaction prices (ATPs)Average Transaction Prices, which are measured after the effect of incentives, continueto rise to new highsIncentives as % of New Vehicle ATPsAveraqe Transaction Prices and y/y Chanqe$30,500- -2.0%Average Transaction Prices (
10、$/unit)Y/Y Change in Transaction Prices (%)o%4cv CCG 6 7亶 6LCC 8A3S 8工与 8TUC 二翕 zv要 匚有 9A3S 9L拿 9As 弓亶 巴专 二翕 寸工黛 WS-S ?要 COL 专00567BW 8VS-S 87BW ZVS-S 9VS-S 97BW 巴, 寸7BW ,COZ3S CO7BW ZTS-S ZL富 0%7.0Source: TrueCar.Source: TrueCar.11J.R MorganWe expect mix shift out of sedans into the crossover/SUV s
11、egment to continue throughout 2020 given GM and others1 plans to reduce passenger car footprints and despite continued declines in incentive spendingHowever we are cognizant of the increasing number of CUV offerings expected to come to the market in the coming year(s)Although gas prices have risen 1
12、5% YTD, they remain below the 10 year average The light truck/utility segment has accounted for 69.1 % of sales (passenger cars 30.9%) on a YTD basis, up from 66.8% in the prior-year periodForecasted Growth in CUV Model Offerings (IHS)7617618060402000806040200cnooopoz60021202620 Mini Subcompact Comp
13、act Mid-Size Full-SizeSource MarW UgW VehcteRxeca5f2019 HS lta*AJa0 AJwnSource: IHS Automotive.12Trucks and Utilities Seqment Share55%50%45%40%35%30%20%25%Source: J.P. Morgan US Automotive Equity Research, Autodata.Retail Gasoline Prices vs Light Truck SalesRetail gasoline price (USD/gallon)Retail g
14、asoline price (USD/gallon)Light truck sales as % of total (inverse scale)Source: US Department of Energy, Bloomberg, Autodata.JPMorganConsumer Confidence vs. SAAR2010000 0 0 01 1 1 9 8 7 62010000 0 0 01 1 1 9 8 7 60 8 6 4 2 0 8CM 1 1 1 1 1 1HWS aoqaw6n.snx-sll- wa.ic0 AJ-snpu一校裨裨护校裨护校护护营背校护校护U.S. Li
15、ght Vehicle SAAR (12-mo. avg.)Univ, of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index (12-mo. avg.)Source: Autodata, Wards Automotive, University of Michigan.Disposable income and consumer spendinDisposable Income (% chg y/y) Consumer Spending (% chg y/y)Source: Autodata, Wards Automotive, University of Michigan.US
16、 U-3 Unemlovment Rate12.0%0.0% -i1111111111111Source: Bloomberg (USURTOT Index), US Bureau of Labor Statistics.U.S. Household Debt to Disposable Income楼武谷校被裙衩校拔校蓄5Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis.13JPMorganChina is an important region for the global auto manufacturers and suppliers, and auto sal
17、es in this market have contracted meaningfullyOn a y/y basis, passenger vehicle sales declines have moderated since May *19, though sales continue to fall (5.4% and 5.8% y/y in Nov and Oct, respectively) despite easier comps and seasonally stronger monthsWhile sales are down 10.4% YTD y/y through No
18、v, our JPM equity research team revised its FY19/20 sales forecast to -9%/0% from - 10%/+0% on the expectation that December will break the streak of y/y sales declinesThe luxury segment continues to grow despite broader market weakness, with retail sales up 8% y/y through Oct; Cadillac retail sales
19、 in particular are up 9% y/y through Sept (important for GM given the higher margin nature of the brand)The latest IHS estimates predict production will be flat in 2020 and return to growth in 2021 indicating that the market is stabilizing Stimulus measures to-date have been limited and we expect th
20、e government to continue to shy away from sweeping measures in 2020. If auto sales continue to fall significantly we believe the government has the capacity to implement more direct measuresChina PV Market Share by Brand (2018)MAJ0 AJ-snpwMAJ0 AJ-snpwSource: CAAM, J.P. Morgan China Automotive Equity
21、 Research.China Passenger Vehicle Sales Y/Y6LCS0 67S-S 6L,6n4 6zn 63 6 & 61 6二裳 6L&IX. 6工 守*0 8LSON 8700 BTS-S 86nn0 A4snpu_YTD through October, new vehicle registrations across the EU have declined 1% and IHS predicts sales will decline another -1% in 2020YTD trends by market: Germany:+3.4% y/y; Fr
22、ance: -0.3% y/y; Italy:-0.8% y/y; UK: -2.9% y/y; Spain: -6.3% y/y We think the implementation of new 2020/2021 CO2 emissions targets and RDE 1 regulations create downside risk to forecastsNew emissions standards w川 likely pressure margins at Europe- exposed OEMs (VW, DAIGR, and BMW in particular amo
23、ng names in our coverage) and have already weighed on some 2020 outlooksDaimler issued lower than expected 2020 margin guidanceimplying group adj. EBIT 8.5bn (1.0- 1.5bn below JPM and Bloomberg consensus estimates)Volkswagen expects compliance with new emission targets will cost 1bn, but believes it
24、 will be able to offset lower margin on some traditional models with higher margins on new EV modelsFord expects to be able to meet new CO2 emission targets with an expanded line-up of PHEVs. The company has not disclosed any expected financial impact, but management is not worried about meeting the
25、 new targetsEurope PV Market Share by BrandMAJ0 AJ-snpwMAJ0 AJ-snpwRenault (ex-Nissan), 11%(incl. Smart), 7%Source: ACEA, J.P. Morgan US Equity Research.Western Europe Passenqer Vehicle Sales Y/Y6vun6工三67dv6 7度6T-SLL.6VUC8 3 Cl8TON8VO。8A s87656vun6工三67dv6 7度6T-SLL.6VUC8 3 Cl8TON8VO。8A s8765Europe Li
26、qht Vehicle Sales ForecastCXI CMCXI CMSource: J.P. Morgan Europe Automotive Equity Research Estimates, Company Data.J UCJ.P Morgan By 2021, European auto manufacturers must meet an industry-wide average of 95g/km of CO2 to avoid financial penalties95% of each OEMs fleet must comply with the new stan
27、dard by 2020 before the new standard takes effect in 2021In addition to selling more electric and fuel-efficient ICE vehicles, OEMs can also earn Usuper credits*1 which allow each sale of a vehicle that emits 0 AJ-snpu一MAJ0 AJ-snpu一mICEICE: Stop/Start Hybrid-MildHybrid-FullFuel CellElectric % Electr
28、ic (Global) % Electric (China)Source: IHS Automotive.2018 vs. 2021 Fleet Emissions Gap bvOEM2021 target vs. 2018 fleet emissions*4030201000908070601 1 1 1 44030201000908070601 1 1 1 4 2018 2021 Target*OEMs on average need to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% from 2017-2021 - implying a 5% annual reduction
29、 vs. an annual rate of -1.5%-2.0% achieved by OEMs on average over the last 4-5 years. 2018 fleet emissions assumed for BMW, Ford, and Renault. 2017 FCA numbers used.Source: ICCT, J.P. Morgan Europe Automotive Equity Research estimates.Compliance Cost vs. 2020 EBIT Margin Hit by OEM (EU)Compliance c
30、ost (bn) Implied margin hit (%)*PSA and BMW could also maintain margins on new EV offerings “On automotive revenuesSource: J.P. Morgan Europe Automotive Equity Research estimates.J.P Morgan We continue to see limited direct impact on the US Automakers from the US-China trade war. Finished vehicle ex
31、ports from the US represent only 1% of new vehicle sales market in China (bottom right chart). The move by China to reinstate an additional 25% tariff on US vehicle imports, will likely impact BMW, Daimler, and Ford the most, given their current vehicle export footprintIn our view, the derivative im
32、pacts from the trade conflict(i.e. erosion of Chinese consumer sentiment, uncertainty around potential stimulus, GDP growth deceleration) are larger concerns for the automotive sector. China is the worlds largest vehicle sales market, and most global automakers have local production facilities in Ch
33、ina (in 50%/50% JVs with Chinese partners)A Chinese government directed boycott of US branded autos remains a concern but:1) We have not seen any evidence of thistaking placeUS automakers also sell vehicles under domestic nameplates, i.e. GMs Baojun and Wuling brands2) Ownership structures are inter
34、twined given 50%/50% JVs with Chinese partners (which in many cases are state sponsored)18Top 10 Models Exported from the US to China (000s units)Note: Figures show projected 2018 numbers. Source: LMC Automotive, Bloomberg.US automotive imports and exports in 2018($bns)Source: U.S. Department of Com
35、merce.J.R Morganm一aj0 AJ-snpu-On May 17th, the Trump administration announced a 180day delay in the implementation of Section 232 tariffs on finished vehicles and auto parts as it negotiates trade deals with the European Union and JapanThe US signed a limited deal with Japan on September 25 (which d
36、id not address auto tariffs) and multiple administration officials have indicated that US is unlikely to impose tariffs on auto imports from JapanWhile the 180 day negotiation period has lapsed without conclusive action on tariffs, the Trump administration may pursue other avenues to tax auto import
37、s and recent news reports suggest that the administration may open a new trade investigation on the EUWe do not anticipate the implementation of significant EU auto tariffs given the lack of support for such a decision and the upcoming political calendar in 2020While certainly not our base case, the
38、 implementation of tariffs on automobiles and auto parts could further weigh on industry and consumer costs and demandIn our view, Ford and GM would be far less impacted than international automakers given their limited amount of imports and exports to the EU (we assume Mexico and Canada would be ex
39、empted from any resulting tariffs)Largest vehicle importers to the US in 2018 (000s of units)Note: Data includes exports and imports of new passenger vehicles and light trucks.US automotive imorts and exoorts in 2018($bnsNew Vehicle Imports New Vehicle Exports Auto Part Imports Auto Part ExportsS200
40、$175$150S125$100$75$50$25$0 Rest of World EU 27 Japan19Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.JPMorganAgendaPageSector OutlookIndustry Overview27Spread Performance 8t Relative ValueJPMorgan Despite suppliersiversification by geography, product, and customer, the GM-UAW strike was a reminder of supplier
41、s, ultimate exposure to auto production3Q19 saw a slew of earnings misses and guidance reductions with many citing the impact of lost volumes due to the prolonged GM-UAW strike Suppliers, more globally diversified footprints also leave them exposed to potentially volatile vehicle production in Chinese and European markets While global vehicle production is likely to bottom out by early to mid 2020, IHS expects production will remain mostly flat to 2019s weaker levels - the exception being North America which is expecte
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